Daily research · One coin, one cause · written
What does BAT do the day after a 90-day breakout?
Short answer
31 cases since 2019: in the middle one, BAT moved −4.8% the day after a 90-day breakout. 77% of the cases ended lower. One case in 10 did better than +3.4%, one in 10 worse than −9.0%. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
−4.8%
the next day, the middle case
How often
77%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+3.4%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−9.0%
or worse
Cases
31
2019-2026, on 31 days
Higher 23% of the time against 51% on ordinary days (31 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern31 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a close above every close of the 90 days before it, and the move that counts is BAT's.
Each of the 31 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 31 measured cases on 31 separate days, from Nov 6, 2019 to Sep 22, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 7, 2026.
It is a proven driver of BAT in the lab: past a 10% false-discovery cut over every test of its night, on 12 cases or more, with both halves of the history on the same side.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A close above the whole 90-day range is a classic breakout: traders who waited for strength come in, and those holding short may have to close. The question is whether it keeps going or falls back into the range.
That is the reasoning behind watching 90-day breakouts; whether it held over our 31 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 31 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against BAT's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 31 of the 31 days had that many to compare.
- No two cases share a day, so each of the 31 days counts once.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results5 up · 18 down
Results
as of · every past case, Nov 6, 2019 to Sep 22, 2026
Of the 31 cases, 5 ended up, 18 down and 8 sideways (within ±2.4%) a day later; the middle case −4.8%, the average day −4.1%.
ended up (5)ended down (18)sideways, within ±2.4% (8)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 31 | −4.8% | +0.11% | 23% | 51% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 31 | −2.9% | +0.77% | 39% | 52% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 19 | +0.78% | −1.1% | 53% | 49% | too few days to compare |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −2.9% over 31 cases; 30 days, typical +0.78% over 19 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −6.1% in 2021 to −1.0% in 2023; 4 of 4 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2 | −1.1% | 50% | 50% |
| 2020 | 5 | −3.5% | 20% | 80% |
| 2021 | 10 | −6.1% | 20% | 80% |
| 2022 | 1 | −1.0% | 0% | 100% |
| 2023 | 5 | −1.0% | 0% | 100% |
| 2024 | 2 | −5.5% | 0% | 100% |
| 2025 | 4 | −2.4% | 50% | 50% |
| 2026 | 2 | −2.4% | 50% | 50% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAT | BAT +8.8% that day | −4.8% | −1.4% | open | |
| BAT | BAT +7.8% that day | +0.08% | −29.1% | −30.7% | |
| BAT | BAT +14.6% that day | +5.2% | +6.5% | −14.1% | |
| BAT | BAT +7.5% that day | −5.7% | −27.7% | +11.9% | |
| BAT | BAT +14.3% that day | −22.5% | +9.8% | +23.4% | |
| BAT | BAT +0.8% that day | +0.89% | −6.0% | −10.2% | |
| BAT | BAT +12.7% that day | −9.4% | +15.1% | +27.9% | |
| BAT | BAT +4.1% that day | −1.7% | +20.6% | +23.8% | |
| BAT | BAT +1.5% that day | −1.0% | −3.4% | −14.9% | |
| BAT | BAT +5.8% that day | −0.85% | −5.9% | +0.53% |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from 90-day breakouts showed no clear edge: right 62% of 39 calls since 2021, against 50% for that side on any day (Apr 10, 2021 – Sep 25, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 31 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data BAT ended higher less often than on ordinary days (23% against 51% over 31 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 62% of 39 calls since 2021, against 50% for that side on any day).
With 31 cases, a handful of unusual ones can move these numbers.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 31 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what 90-day breakouts did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- Did BAT usually end lower the day after a 90-day breakout?
- In 77% of 31 cases from Nov 6, 2019 to Sep 22, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 23% against 51% on BAT's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved −4.8% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +3.4% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −9.0% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 31 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 62% of 39 calls since 2021, against 50% for that side on any day).
- The −4.8% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Sep 22, 2026: BAT +8.8% that day.
- A day later the move was −4.8%.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was −1.0% in 2023 (5 cases) and −6.1% in 2021 (10 cases).