Daily research · The economy and Wall Street · written
What does Ether do in the week after a US jobs report?
Short answer
The middle case of 95 since 2019 saw Ether move +1.5% in the week after a US jobs report. It ended higher 56% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +15.4% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −12.6% or less. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
+1.5%
over the next 7 days, the middle case
How often
56%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+15.4%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−12.6%
or worse
Cases
95
2019-2026, on 95 days
Higher 56% of the time against 52% on ordinary days (95 days compared): no clear edge over ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern95 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is the day the US jobs report comes out, from FRED's release calendar, and the move that counts is Ether's.
Each of the 95 moves is measured from the close before the event's day to the close 7 days after that day.
In our data that gives 95 measured cases on 95 separate days, from Jan 4, 2019 to Oct 2, 2026; the numbers were written on Nov 3, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
The monthly jobs report is one of the main inputs to the Fed's next move, so a surprise in payrolls or unemployment can shift rate expectations, and with them the appetite for risky assets.
That is the reasoning behind watching jobs reports; whether it held over our 95 cases since 2019 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 95 cases from the close before the event's day to the close 7 days after that day, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against Ether's own ordinary days (7-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 95 of the 95 days had that many to compare.
- No two cases share a day, so each of the 95 days counts once.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results42 up · 23 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jan 4, 2019 to Oct 2, 2026
A week later, the middle case stood at +1.5% and the average day at +2.0%; 42 cases ended up, 23 down and 30 sideways (within ±3.4%).
ended up (42)ended down (23)sideways, within ±3.4% (30)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 95 | +0.40% | +0.07% | 55% | 52% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 7 days this post | 95 | +1.5% | +0.40% | 56% | 52% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 95 | +1.8% | +0.78% | 54% | 52% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 1 day, typical +0.40% over 95 cases; 30 days, typical +1.8% over 95 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −2.8% in 2022 to +6.8% in 2025; 6 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 12 | +2.2% | 58% | 42% |
| 2020 | 13 | +4.8% | 62% | 38% |
| 2021 | 12 | +4.0% | 67% | 33% |
| 2022 | 12 | −2.8% | 25% | 75% |
| 2023 | 12 | +0.07% | 50% | 50% |
| 2024 | 13 | +3.0% | 62% | 38% |
| 2025 | 11 | +6.8% | 73% | 27% |
| 2026 | 10 | −0.40% | 50% | 50% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US jobs report | −0.71% | −8.1% | −15.9% | |
| US jobs report | −1.1% | +0.36% | +8.8% | |
| US jobs report | +0.66% | −1.1% | +32.1% | |
| US jobs report | +9.2% | +8.4% | +14.6% | |
| US jobs report | −11.4% | −5.9% | +0.84% | |
| US jobs report | +1.5% | −2.9% | −26.2% | |
| US jobs report | +0.41% | +9.1% | +12.9% | |
| US jobs report | −5.0% | +0.93% | +1.8% | |
| US jobs report | −3.7% | −3.3% | +3.4% | |
| US jobs report | −0.64% | +6.1% | −32.7% |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from jobs reports showed no clear edge: right 75% of 4 calls since 2026, against 54% for that side on any day (Jul 1, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 95 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
No clear edge: 56% of 95 days ended higher against 52% on ordinary days, inside the range chance alone gives (46% to 65%).
The typical move of +1.5% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−12.6% to +15.4%): single cases went either way by far more.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 75% of 4 calls since 2026, against 54% for that side on any day).
With 95 cases, one case moves the share that ended higher by 1.1 points.
Markets change, so what jobs reports did from 2019 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did Ether end higher in the week after a US jobs report?
- In 56% of 95 cases from Jan 4, 2019 to Oct 2, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 56% against 52% on Ether's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move over the next 7 days?
- The middle case moved +1.5% over the next 7 days.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +15.4% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −12.6% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 95 cases it shows no clear edge over ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 75% of 4 calls since 2026, against 54% for that side on any day).
- The +1.5% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 2, 2026: US jobs report.
- A week later the move was −8.1%.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +6.8% in 2025 (11 cases) and −2.8% in 2022 (12 cases).