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Pattern · funding extreme lows · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-14

Funding extreme lows of L1 and L2 tokens: all 200 measured cases

funding extreme low category · l1 l2⚠ flipped on recent cases 206 cases on record last 5 cases: 3 up

Explained and tested in our research: What happens to a coin in the 30 days after an extreme low in funding?

higher the next day

50%

99 of 200 past cases

50% of past cases were higher (90% range 44-55%)

90% range 44%–55%

higher after 30 days

46%

88 of 193 cases measured after 30 days

46% of past cases were higher (90% range 40-52%)

90% range 40%–52% · typical move −4.0%

typical next day
−0.0%
typical after 30 days
−4.0%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
−3.7%
best after 30 days
+130.3%
worst after 30 days
−59.9%
30 days: up · sideways · down
62 · 40 · 91

⚠ recent-cases check · flipped: 52% → 46% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

FUNDING LOWall funding extreme lows against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
−4−9…+2
7 days
0−6…+6
30 days
+10+4…+16

After funding extreme lows, the price was higher 30 days later in 43% of 1,174 cases on 247 separate days, against 33% of the same coins' ordinary days: +10 points (95% range +4 to +16; older half +5, newer half +15). Coin by coin, it is a likely driver on 1 coin.

Every past funding extreme low, 30 days on 193 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 60 rose · ▼ 83 fell · ◆ 50 sideways (±6.6% over 30 days)

Each line is one past funding extreme low: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · 80 of the 193 cases measured that far, evenly through their dates · past cases, not a projection

Funding extreme lows of L1 and L2 tokens: 200 of the 206 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 99 of those 200 closed higher — a base rate of 50%, with a 90% range of 44% to 55%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up200 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

Funding extreme lows of L1 and L2 tokens: 200 of the 206 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 99 of those 200 closed higher — a base rate of 50%, with a 90% range of 44% to 55%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.

  • By day 30, 88 of the 193 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (46%).
  • The typical day-30 move was −4.0%, the best +130.3% and the worst −59.9%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −3.7% vs BTC and beat it in 31.6% of 193 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 52% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 46% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running

  • 2 days ago · XMR Monero 30 days lands
  • 2 days ago · ETH Ethereum next day −1.5% · 30 days lands
  • 2 days ago · CFX Conflux Network next day −14.6% · 30 days lands
  • 3 days ago · BAT Basic Attention Token next day +8.5% · 30 days lands
  • 11 days ago · MANA Decentraland next day +3.2% · 7 days −5.7% · 30 days lands
  • 15 days ago · XMR Monero 30 days lands

NO DATA YET No scheduled funding extreme low meets every condition of this pattern as of Oct 14, 2026.

Every past case206 cases

Every past funding extreme low behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 206 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

206 past cases of funding extreme lows of l1 and l2 tokens, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2026
Monero (XMR) — — in 28 days in 28 days not measured yet
Ethereum (ETH) — −1.5% in 28 days in 28 days down next day
Conflux Network (CFX) — −14.6% in 28 days in 28 days down next day
Basic Attention Token (BAT) — +8.5% in 27 days in 27 days up next day
Decentraland (MANA) — +3.2% in 19 days in 19 days up next day
Monero (XMR) — — in 15 days in 15 days not measured yet
Arbitrum (ARB) — +2.5% in 11 days in 11 days up next day
Tezos (XTZ) — −7.4% in 6 days in 6 days down next day
IOTA (IOTA) — −10.3% tomorrow tomorrow down next day
Stacks (STX) — +5.1% +62.5% +56.5% up next day
THETA (THETA) — +6.6% +8.3% +2.3% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +6.0% +36.9% +28.8% up next day
Monad (MON) — −6.6% −1.7% −7.0% down next day
Stacks (STX) — −3.2% +27.5% +20.6% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +9.7% +130.3% +113.1% up next day
Monad (MON) — +3.6% +6.7% −11.7% up next day
Algorand (ALGO) — −0.5% +13.4% −7.8% sideways next day
Stable (STABLE) — −2.3% −13.4% −33.3% down next day
Litecoin (LTC) — +0.7% +21.2% −2.8% sideways next day
Decentraland (MANA) — +1.7% +16.2% −5.6% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +3.2% +92.2% +71.5% up next day
Sui (SUI) — +2.9% +20.7% −4.2% up next day
Litecoin (LTC) — +0.9% +9.6% −15.4% sideways next day
Conflux Network (CFX) — +4.5% +7.4% −12.5% up next day
Monero (XMR) — — — — not measured yet
IOTA (IOTA) — −0.6% +23.7% +1.4% sideways next day
VeChain (VET) — +3.1% +51.3% +29.5% up next day
Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) — −0.4% +15.6% −10.3% sideways next day
Cardano (ADA) — −5.6% +26.9% +4.9% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −6.5% +11.6% −10.4% down next day
Sui (SUI) — +1.7% +12.5% −10.7% up next day
Stacks (STX) — +1.3% +59.2% +36.1% up next day
Ethereum Classic (ETC) — +0.3% +0.6% −11.3% sideways next day
NEO (NEO) — −0.7% −12.0% −19.1% sideways next day
Optimism (OP) — −1.0% −12.2% −13.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.7% −17.3% −15.8% sideways next day
Algorand (ALGO) — +1.6% −6.0% −7.8% up next day
Cardano (ADA) — +2.2% +12.6% +13.1% up next day
THETA (THETA) — −5.7% −11.2% −10.9% down next day
IOTA (IOTA) — −1.3% −13.6% −13.3% down next day
Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) — −1.4% −4.0% −6.5% down next day
Decentraland (MANA) — −1.0% −6.4% −7.9% sideways next day
Optimism (OP) — +13.2% −12.2% −16.8% up next day
Monad (MON) — −1.8% +11.3% +3.9% down next day
Ethereum (ETH) — +0.4% +24.7% +15.3% sideways next day
XRP (XRP) — +0.4% +6.7% −2.7% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −2.2% +8.4% +3.0% down next day
IOTA (IOTA) — −9.8% −17.7% −19.9% down next day
VeChain (VET) — −5.4% −0.1% −2.4% down next day
Sui (SUI) — +0.8% +8.1% +4.6% sideways next day
Decentraland (MANA) — −7.2% −10.0% −13.5% down next day
Avalanche (AVAX) — −1.3% +2.3% −0.5% down next day
Cardano (ADA) — −5.8% −9.8% −8.3% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.2% +3.1% +4.7% sideways next day
Monero (XMR) — — — — not measured yet
Conflux Network (CFX) — +3.4% −5.4% −3.4% up next day
XRP (XRP) — −1.6% −5.6% −4.0% down next day
Avalanche (AVAX) — +1.5% +0.4% −3.7% up next day
Starknet (STRK) — +7.9% −3.8% −7.9% up next day
Zcash (ZEC) — +26.7% +33.5% +29.4% up next day
IOTA (IOTA) — +4.7% −18.9% −23.0% up next day
Stable (STABLE) — −2.8% +3.2% −0.8% down next day
Monad (MON) — +5.3% +18.9% +14.0% up next day
Sui (SUI) — +7.9% +6.6% +1.7% up next day
VeChain (VET) — +3.7% +4.4% −0.5% up next day
NEO (NEO) — +0.4% −7.6% −12.5% sideways next day
Filecoin (FIL) — −15.6% −7.6% −7.3% down next day
Optimism (OP) — −16.3% −3.2% −2.8% down next day
Stacks (STX) — −5.8% −10.0% −9.6% down next day
Algorand (ALGO) — −8.4% −9.5% −9.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −10.4% −25.9% −7.4% down next day
Monero (XMR) — — — — not measured yet
Monad (MON) — −1.9% −21.1% −2.0% down next day
Basic Attention Token (BAT) — +7.9% −25.2% −6.2% up next day
Algorand (ALGO) — −5.5% −24.7% −2.0% down next day
Cardano (ADA) — −0.9% −38.4% −20.2% sideways next day
Optimism (OP) — −0.5% −22.2% −4.0% sideways next day
Sui (SUI) — −2.3% −34.0% −15.8% down next day
Litecoin (LTC) — −0.8% −19.3% −1.1% sideways next day
Monad (MON) — −1.7% −20.1% −3.9% down next day
Ethereum (ETH) — +1.5% −26.2% −5.4% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −1.5% −25.2% 0.0% down next day
Stacks (STX) — +5.5% −28.2% −2.9% up next day
Conflux Network (CFX) — +5.7% −30.9% −5.7% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −5.1% −17.2% −8.5% down next day
Monad (MON) — −3.1% −25.0% −16.3% down next day
Cardano (ADA) — −1.5% −5.4% −0.5% down next day
Sui (SUI) — −3.1% −0.7% +4.2% down next day
Stable (STABLE) — +2.7% +16.1% +16.3% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +0.2% +1.5% 0.0% sideways next day
BitTensor (TAO) — +0.4% +5.7% +4.2% sideways next day
THETA (THETA) — +17.5% +11.5% +7.0% up next day
Ethereum (ETH) — +1.1% −4.2% −10.9% up next day
Stable (STABLE) — −1.3% +53.9% +44.9% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −1.7% +17.9% +7.7% down next day
Optimism (OP) — +1.6% +32.8% +22.6% up next day
BitTensor (TAO) — +0.6% +24.4% +12.4% sideways next day
Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) — −1.2% +9.1% −5.4% down next day
Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) — −1.3% +20.7% +6.2% down next day
Kaspa (KAS) — +2.5% +20.3% +5.8% up next day
Zcash (ZEC) — +16.1% +83.8% +70.3% up next day
Cardano (ADA) — −3.3% +4.1% −7.4% down next day
Avalanche (AVAX) — −0.6% +5.1% −6.4% sideways next day
Conflux Network (CFX) — −2.3% +26.2% +14.7% down next day
Sui (SUI) — +10.2% +14.0% −4.0% up next day
THETA (THETA) — −1.3% +34.8% +14.6% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +0.6% +17.4% 0.0% sideways next day
Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) — +0.4% +0.6% −14.0% sideways next day
XRP (XRP) — +1.0% +3.1% −11.7% up next day
Stacks (STX) — +4.9% +3.6% −11.2% up next day
Algorand (ALGO) — −0.4% +43.1% +26.6% sideways next day
BitTensor (TAO) — −8.9% −28.6% −37.4% down next day
Optimism (OP) — −4.4% +10.1% +0.4% down next day
Basic Attention Token (BAT) — −6.5% −4.4% −14.2% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +4.0% +15.2% 0.0% up next day
Ethereum (ETH) — +5.0% +15.6% +0.4% up next day
Litecoin (LTC) — +5.4% +3.7% −11.5% up next day
Ethereum Classic (ETC) — +8.0% +5.1% −10.1% up next day
Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) — +4.3% +1.2% −14.0% up next day
Decentraland (MANA) — +3.5% +9.1% −1.7% up next day
Cardano (ADA) — −3.8% −9.4% −14.9% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −3.1% +22.2% +16.7% down next day
Monad (MON) — −2.6% +36.7% +31.2% down next day
Stable (STABLE) — −3.1% −6.3% −6.7% down next day
NEO (NEO) — −0.6% −0.6% −3.4% sideways next day
Starknet (STRK) — +5.1% −18.3% −22.4% up next day
Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) — +1.0% −6.3% −10.3% sideways next day
Filecoin (FIL) — −1.0% +2.5% −1.6% down next day
Monad (MON) — +0.8% +55.2% +50.3% sideways next day
Sui (SUI) — +8.8% +3.8% −3.9% up next day
XRP (XRP) — +3.5% +0.2% −7.5% up next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +6.0% +7.7% 0.0% up next day
THETA (THETA) — +3.4% −10.2% −18.0% up next day
Cardano (ADA) — +0.3% +3.3% −3.7% sideways next day
Ethereum (ETH) — +1.2% +13.7% +6.8% up next day
Ethereum Classic (ETC) — +0.5% +9.1% +2.2% sideways next day
Algorand (ALGO) — +0.4% +41.1% +34.2% sideways next day
NEO (NEO) — −0.1% +13.9% +7.0% sideways next day
Optimism (OP) — −4.2% −8.9% −10.0% down next day
BitTensor (TAO) — +2.6% +76.9% +75.8% up next day
Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) — +2.7% −9.5% −7.5% up next day
Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) — +0.3% −8.3% −6.3% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +2.8% +2.0% 0.0% up next day
XRP (XRP) — +1.0% −2.6% −4.5% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +2.1% −6.8% −8.8% up next day
Cosmos (ATOM) — −1.6% −12.4% −10.2% down next day
Sui (SUI) — +10.1% +5.2% −1.3% up next day
Decentraland (MANA) — +9.8% −8.7% −15.1% up next day
Algorand (ALGO) — −3.8% +0.8% −4.7% down next day
Monad (MON) — +1.1% +33.0% +27.5% up next day
NEO (NEO) — −3.3% +2.9% −2.6% down next day
Cardano (ADA) — −6.3% −4.9% −8.7% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +0.3% −5.6% −6.9% sideways next day
Litecoin (LTC) — +4.2% +1.5% +0.3% up next day
VeChain (VET) — −1.0% −11.2% −12.5% down next day
Optimism (OP) — −22.3% −28.8% −32.5% down next day
BitTensor (TAO) — −7.7% +42.0% +40.5% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +6.6% −6.6% −12.8% up next day
IOTA (IOTA) — −0.4% −5.6% −8.7% sideways next day
NEO (NEO) — +3.4% −0.6% −3.6% up next day
Litecoin (LTC) — −2.1% +0.5% +0.7% down next day
Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) — −0.0% +3.3% +6.4% sideways next day
Monad (MON) — −2.5% +14.3% +17.4% down next day
Sui (SUI) — −4.2% −7.1% −4.1% down next day
Kaspa (KAS) — +5.7% −6.2% −3.1% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −17.5% −23.4% −13.3% down next day
Starknet (STRK) — −17.5% −31.0% −20.9% down next day
Stacks (STX) — −19.2% −15.6% −5.5% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — −7.1% −10.0% 0.0% down next day
NEO (NEO) — −4.8% −20.4% −10.4% down next day
Algorand (ALGO) — +5.9% −11.6% −6.1% up next day
Decentraland (MANA) — −0.6% −11.1% −5.5% sideways next day
VeChain (VET) — +3.4% −8.7% −3.1% up next day
Litecoin (LTC) — +0.8% −8.0% +5.2% sideways next day
Conflux Network (CFX) — +0.5% −13.5% −0.3% sideways next day
Cardano (ADA) — −10.9% −13.6% +4.7% down next day
BitTensor (TAO) — −12.4% −13.3% +5.0% down next day
XRP (XRP) — −8.3% −19.9% −1.6% down next day
Avalanche (AVAX) — −8.3% −18.1% +4.2% down next day
IOTA (IOTA) — −10.1% −19.0% +3.3% down next day
Optimism (OP) — +1.2% −59.9% −36.3% up next day
THETA (THETA) — −1.8% −29.0% −5.4% down next day
Ethereum (ETH) — −4.7% −37.2% −9.4% down next day
Litecoin (LTC) — 0.0% −21.6% +2.9% sideways next day
Stacks (STX) — −3.7% −22.3% +2.2% down next day
Kaspa (KAS) — +4.6% −23.8% +0.7% up next day
Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) — −4.7% −17.9% +6.1% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) — +1.3% −23.1% 0.0% up next day
VeChain (VET) — +1.3% −22.5% +0.6% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −4.3% −49.3% −21.7% down next day
Filecoin (FIL) — −2.6% −33.9% −6.2% down next day
BitTensor (TAO) — −4.6% −30.2% −2.5% down next day
Decentraland (MANA) — −0.7% −35.7% −6.6% sideways next day
Cardano (ADA) — −5.0% −27.7% +0.2% down next day
Dash (DASH) — +7.1% −49.8% −21.9% up next day
Monero (XMR) — — — — not measured yet
Optimism (OP) — +13.8% −40.8% −13.4% up next day
Basic Attention Token (BAT) — +5.2% −32.0% −5.7% up next day
Sui (SUI) — −0.8% −46.9% −24.2% sideways next day
BitTensor (TAO) — +2.3% −43.2% −20.6% up next day
THETA (THETA) — −5.3% −44.1% −11.1% down next day
Basic Attention Token (BAT) — +3.2% −46.5% −30.1% up next day
XRP (XRP) — +7.4% −15.4% −2.0% up next day
Cardano (ADA) — +9.2% −19.8% −6.5% up next day
IOTA (IOTA) — +10.7% −16.5% −3.1% up next day
2025
Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) — +3.5% +9.0% +13.7% up next day

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 200 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answers generated from this count

What does the 50% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 99 of the 200 measured past cases of funding extreme lows of L1 and L2 tokens closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 44% to 55% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 200.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 52% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 46% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 206 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every funding extreme low with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.