How often it went up248 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Funding extreme lows of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 248 of the 250 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 102 of those 248 closed higher — a base rate of 41%, with a 90% range of 36% to 46%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 75 of the 248 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (30%).
- The typical day-30 move was −8.0%, the best +129.8% and the worst −89.0%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −8.2% vs BTC and beat it in 25.8% of 248 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 45% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 35% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme low can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme lows of small-cap tokens →
Every past case250 cases
Every past funding extreme low behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 250 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Stable (STABLE) | — | −2.3% | −13.4% | −33.3% | down next day | |
| DoubleZero (2Z) | — | −7.3% | −6.7% | −30.7% | down next day | |
| Unibase (UB) | — | −10.8% | +0.9% | −20.1% | down next day | |
| Espresso (ESP) | — | −7.2% | +10.8% | −9.1% | down next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | −2.5% | +6.6% | −13.3% | down next day | |
| Conflux Network (CFX) | — | +4.5% | +7.4% | −12.5% | up next day | |
| Threshold Network (T) | — | −0.4% | −28.2% | −27.8% | sideways next day | |
| THETA (THETA) | — | −5.7% | −11.2% | −10.9% | down next day | |
| IOTA (IOTA) | — | −1.3% | −13.6% | −13.3% | down next day | |
| MultiversX (Elrond) (EGLD) | — | +0.3% | −7.9% | −10.6% | sideways next day | |
| ONEchain (ONE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Chiliz (CHZ) | — | −0.1% | −20.9% | −25.2% | sideways next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | −15.1% | −22.9% | −23.3% | down next day | |
| Blur (BLUR) | — | −15.0% | −36.4% | −36.8% | down next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | −5.1% | −20.2% | −21.8% | down next day | |
| Decentraland (MANA) | — | −1.0% | −6.4% | −7.9% | sideways next day | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | — | +1.5% | −12.6% | −15.9% | up next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +13.2% | −12.2% | −16.8% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | +14.8% | +9.0% | +1.7% | up next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | −1.8% | +11.3% | +3.9% | down next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | −4.1% | −4.5% | −11.9% | down next day | |
| OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) | — | −4.6% | −10.7% | −16.8% | down next day | |
| Sonic (S) | — | +10.6% | +16.8% | +7.5% | up next day | |
| MultiversX (Elrond) (EGLD) | — | 0.0% | +13.9% | +4.6% | sideways next day | |
| IOTA (IOTA) | — | −9.8% | −17.7% | −19.9% | down next day | |
| Four (FORM) | — | −10.0% | −19.5% | −21.7% | down next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | −3.2% | +3.2% | +1.5% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −6.2% | −4.7% | −6.4% | down next day | |
| The Sandbox (SAND) | — | −8.2% | −19.7% | −23.2% | down next day | |
| Decentraland (MANA) | — | −7.2% | −10.0% | −13.5% | down next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | −3.6% | +13.9% | +11.2% | down next day | |
| SPX6900 (SPX) | — | −3.4% | −8.8% | −6.2% | down next day | |
| Gala (GALA) | — | −1.1% | −25.7% | −24.2% | down next day | |
| MegaETH (MEGA) | — | −8.5% | −23.6% | −22.1% | down next day | |
| Sonic (S) | — | −0.3% | −21.1% | −19.6% | sideways next day | |
| OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) | — | −8.8% | −28.7% | −29.6% | down next day | |
| Axelar (AXL) | — | −5.3% | −13.3% | −14.2% | down next day | |
| Conflux Network (CFX) | — | +3.4% | −5.4% | −3.4% | up next day | |
| Starknet (STRK) | — | +7.9% | −3.8% | −7.9% | up next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | −1.6% | +3.7% | −0.4% | down next day | |
| IOTA (IOTA) | — | +4.7% | −18.9% | −23.0% | up next day | |
| JasmyCoin (JASMY) | — | +2.0% | −3.5% | −7.6% | up next day | |
| Stable (STABLE) | — | −2.8% | +3.2% | −0.8% | down next day | |
| Humanity (H) | — | −84.8% | −89.0% | −93.1% | down next day | |
| Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) | — | +7.6% | +50.6% | +45.7% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +5.3% | +8.8% | +3.9% | up next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | +5.3% | +18.9% | +14.0% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | +3.4% | +17.1% | +12.2% | up next day | |
| Plasma (XPL) | — | +3.4% | +63.2% | +58.3% | up next day | |
| Floki Inu (FLOKI) | — | +6.3% | +0.6% | −4.2% | up next day | |
| The Graph (GRT) | — | +0.1% | −8.4% | −13.3% | sideways next day | |
| NEO (NEO) | — | +0.4% | −7.6% | −12.5% | sideways next day | |
| Hypurr (PURR) | — | −13.1% | −0.6% | −0.3% | down next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | −16.3% | −3.2% | −2.8% | down next day | |
| Sei (SEI) | — | −10.1% | −4.2% | −3.9% | down next day | |
| Gala (GALA) | — | −8.1% | −14.4% | −14.0% | down next day | |
| Chiliz (CHZ) | — | −6.6% | −31.1% | −30.8% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −12.0% | −15.9% | −15.5% | down next day | |
| Terra Classic (LUNC) | — | −15.1% | −9.5% | −7.9% | down next day | |
| VeThor Token (VTHO) | — | −12.1% | −37.8% | −17.1% | down next day | |
| io.net (IO) | — | +1.1% | −1.5% | +16.4% | up next day | |
| Allora (ALLO) | — | +6.7% | +10.5% | +28.5% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −0.3% | −24.8% | −5.7% | sideways next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | −1.9% | −21.1% | −2.0% | down next day | |
| Basic Attention Token (BAT) | — | +7.9% | −25.2% | −6.2% | up next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | +1.7% | −18.3% | +0.7% | up next day | |
| MegaETH (MEGA) | — | −6.4% | −31.0% | −10.1% | down next day | |
| Phala Network (PHA) | — | −24.1% | −40.7% | −19.8% | down next day | |
| Hypurr (PURR) | — | −12.2% | −10.4% | +12.3% | down next day | |
| SafePal Token (SFP) | — | −3.2% | −25.6% | −2.9% | down next day | |
| Floki Inu (FLOKI) | — | +2.4% | +20.2% | +2.7% | up next day | |
| VeThor Token (VTHO) | — | −0.4% | +4.2% | −13.2% | sideways next day | |
| Mina Protocol (MINA) | — | −4.9% | +1.3% | −14.2% | down next day | |
| Blur (BLUR) | — | −14.4% | +17.5% | +2.0% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −2.8% | +7.0% | −7.5% | down next day | |
| Qtum (QTUM) | — | −1.3% | −1.9% | −16.5% | down next day | |
| The Sandbox (SAND) | — | +5.0% | +0.3% | −14.5% | up next day | |
| Plasma (XPL) | — | +7.4% | +7.7% | −7.1% | up next day | |
| SafePal Token (SFP) | — | +2.8% | +19.4% | +4.6% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | −2.4% | +17.4% | +2.4% | down next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | −3.0% | +7.0% | −8.0% | down next day | |
| Kite (KITE) | — | −13.6% | −17.6% | −34.1% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +6.5% | +55.7% | +41.4% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −1.7% | +65.6% | +51.3% | down next day | |
| SuperVerse (SUPER) | — | −6.8% | +7.6% | −6.7% | down next day | |
| Vaulta (A) | — | −3.5% | +19.6% | +5.3% | down next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | −2.4% | −27.1% | −37.8% | down next day | |
| Decentraland (MANA) | — | +3.5% | +9.1% | −1.7% | up next day | |
| SPX6900 (SPX) | — | −5.8% | +7.9% | +0.4% | down next day | |
| Plasma (XPL) | — | −3.5% | +10.9% | +3.4% | down next day | |
| Gala (GALA) | — | −8.4% | −3.3% | −10.9% | down next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | −2.1% | −6.1% | −12.3% | down next day | |
| The Graph (GRT) | — | +0.4% | −7.9% | −12.9% | sideways next day | |
| Compound (COMP) | — | +0.4% | +9.4% | +5.3% | sideways next day | |
| VeThor Token (VTHO) | — | −0.5% | −4.9% | −9.0% | sideways next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +2.0% | +13.6% | +9.3% | up next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | +0.8% | +55.2% | +50.3% | sideways next day | |
| Bonk (BONK) | — | +6.8% | +4.1% | −3.6% | up next day | |
| Floki Inu (FLOKI) | — | +5.9% | +0.3% | −7.4% | up next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | +3.9% | −10.6% | −18.3% | up next day | |
| Ordinals (ORDI) | — | +3.3% | +3.2% | −4.5% | up next day | |
| Kaia (KAIA) | — | +11.3% | −5.3% | −13.0% | up next day | |
| Threshold Network (T) | — | +0.3% | −5.1% | −12.8% | sideways next day | |
| THETA (THETA) | — | +3.4% | −10.2% | −18.0% | up next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +3.0% | −4.6% | −12.3% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | +1.2% | −10.3% | −17.2% | up next day | |
| Plasma (XPL) | — | −4.3% | +37.1% | +30.1% | down next day | |
| Gala (GALA) | — | +2.1% | −5.8% | −12.7% | up next day | |
| Flow (FLOW) | — | +23.8% | −23.0% | −30.0% | up next day | |
| NEO (NEO) | — | −0.1% | +13.9% | +7.0% | sideways next day | |
| Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) | — | −8.0% | +5.5% | +4.5% | down next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | −9.1% | −21.1% | −22.2% | down next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | −4.2% | −8.9% | −10.0% | down next day | |
| Huma Finance (HUMA) | — | +13.7% | −18.9% | −20.0% | up next day | |
| SPX6900 (SPX) | — | −10.4% | −21.6% | −19.0% | down next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | −5.3% | −29.4% | −26.8% | down next day | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | — | +1.7% | −1.3% | +1.3% | up next day | |
| Sei (SEI) | — | −0.1% | −19.6% | −17.6% | sideways next day | |
| Enjin Coin (ENJ) | — | −0.4% | +4.9% | +6.9% | sideways next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | +2.5% | −7.5% | −5.5% | up next day | |
| Vaulta (A) | — | +3.1% | +4.0% | +6.1% | up next day | |
| Phala Network (PHA) | — | +90.4% | +48.6% | +51.4% | up next day | |
| Kava (KAVA) | — | +5.7% | −8.7% | −5.9% | up next day | |
| Four (FORM) | — | +10.9% | −27.4% | −24.6% | up next day | |
| Immutable X (IMX) | — | −3.3% | −19.3% | −16.5% | down next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | +1.7% | +3.5% | +1.5% | up next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | +2.8% | −5.6% | −7.5% | up next day | |
| BOOK OF MEME (BOME) | — | −0.3% | −1.3% | −2.7% | sideways next day | |
| Arweave (AR) | — | −5.6% | +4.3% | +2.9% | down next day | |
| Aethir (ATH) | — | +6.3% | +15.1% | +13.7% | up next day | |
| Kite (KITE) | — | +7.7% | −28.7% | −30.1% | up next day | |
| RedStone (RED) | — | −9.9% | −37.4% | −38.8% | down next day | |
| Falcon Finance (FF) | — | −1.5% | −11.5% | −9.1% | down next day | |
| Axelar (AXL) | — | −5.4% | −18.6% | −16.2% | down next day | |
| Ordinals (ORDI) | — | +3.5% | −7.8% | −11.5% | up next day | |
| Livepeer (LPT) | — | +5.1% | −7.0% | −10.7% | up next day | |
| Kaia (KAIA) | — | +6.6% | −12.1% | −15.7% | up next day | |
| Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) | — | +15.6% | +21.3% | +14.8% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | +8.2% | +1.3% | −5.2% | up next day | |
| Plasma (XPL) | — | +18.9% | +7.7% | +1.3% | up next day | |
| Decentraland (MANA) | — | +9.8% | −8.7% | −15.1% | up next day | |
| Tellor (TRB) | — | +7.0% | +8.8% | +2.4% | up next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | +1.1% | +33.0% | +27.5% | up next day | |
| OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) | — | −0.9% | −3.2% | −8.7% | sideways next day | |
| dogwifhat (WIF) | — | −8.5% | −10.8% | −16.3% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −2.8% | −2.3% | −7.8% | down next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | +6.1% | +11.1% | +5.7% | up next day | |
| The Graph (GRT) | — | −3.8% | −4.6% | −10.1% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −5.1% | −3.3% | −8.8% | down next day | |
| VeThor Token (VTHO) | — | −5.9% | −5.0% | −10.5% | down next day | |
| NEO (NEO) | — | −3.3% | +2.9% | −2.6% | down next day | |
| Zilliqa (ZIL) | — | −3.5% | −5.0% | −8.8% | down next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | −5.5% | −17.0% | −21.2% | down next day | |
| The Sandbox (SAND) | — | −3.8% | −4.4% | −8.6% | down next day | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | — | −2.7% | −17.1% | −21.4% | down next day | |
| ONEchain (ONE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BIO Protocol (BIO) | — | −16.9% | −42.5% | −46.7% | down next day | |
| Humanity (H) | — | +0.7% | −37.5% | −41.8% | sideways next day | |
| Floki Inu (FLOKI) | — | +0.1% | −5.9% | −7.1% | sideways next day | |
| Sonic (S) | — | +0.6% | −1.7% | −2.9% | sideways next day | |
| Enjin Coin (ENJ) | — | +1.7% | +5.1% | +3.8% | up next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | −22.3% | −28.8% | −32.5% | down next day | |
| Ontology (ONT) | — | −3.0% | −13.0% | −16.7% | down next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | +32.3% | +1.3% | −2.4% | up next day | |
| Orca (ORCA) | — | +2.2% | −24.6% | −29.1% | up next day | |
| Jito (JTO) | — | −15.0% | −8.6% | −13.1% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −12.3% | −25.8% | −30.3% | down next day | |
| io.net (IO) | — | −2.7% | −0.9% | −5.3% | down next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | −6.4% | −30.6% | −32.1% | down next day | |
| SPX6900 (SPX) | — | +1.0% | −6.7% | −8.2% | sideways next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | −3.5% | +3.8% | −2.1% | down next day | |
| Aethir (ATH) | — | −7.4% | −2.3% | −8.2% | down next day | |
| DeXe (DEXE) | — | −3.6% | +129.8% | +124.0% | down next day | |
| Sei (SEI) | — | −0.4% | −7.5% | −16.3% | sideways next day | |
| Livepeer (LPT) | — | −4.7% | −3.1% | −11.9% | down next day | |
| Prometeus (PROM) | — | +11.4% | −3.5% | −12.3% | up next day | |
| Compound (COMP) | — | −1.4% | −6.7% | −15.5% | down next day | |
| 0G (0G) | — | −3.5% | −12.0% | −21.9% | down next day | |
| VeThor Token (VTHO) | — | +5.8% | −1.0% | −10.9% | up next day | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | — | +7.8% | +8.0% | +5.0% | up next day | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | — | −10.0% | −26.6% | −29.6% | down next day | |
| Gala (GALA) | — | +0.8% | −11.3% | −14.4% | sideways next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −2.0% | +13.5% | +10.5% | down next day | |
| IOTA (IOTA) | — | −0.4% | −5.6% | −8.7% | sideways next day | |
| Mina Protocol (MINA) | — | +1.5% | −11.6% | −14.7% | up next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | +4.8% | −8.0% | −11.0% | up next day | |
| Tellor (TRB) | — | +1.5% | +14.6% | +11.5% | up next day | |
| NEO (NEO) | — | +3.4% | −0.6% | −3.6% | up next day | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | — | −7.6% | −19.8% | −19.6% | down next day | |
| Flow (FLOW) | — | +2.4% | +42.5% | +41.6% | up next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | −1.0% | +6.1% | +5.2% | down next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | −2.5% | +14.3% | +17.4% | down next day | |
| The Graph (GRT) | — | −3.9% | −12.5% | −9.5% | down next day | |
| JasmyCoin (JASMY) | — | −6.1% | +0.3% | +3.4% | down next day | |
| Starknet (STRK) | — | −17.5% | −31.0% | −20.9% | down next day | |
| Mubarak (MUBARAK) | — | −20.3% | −9.7% | +0.4% | down next day | |
| DeXe (DEXE) | — | −14.2% | +64.3% | +74.4% | down next day | |
| Zilliqa (ZIL) | — | +0.4% | −21.2% | −11.2% | sideways next day | |
| NEO (NEO) | — | −4.8% | −20.4% | −10.4% | down next day | |
| dogwifhat (WIF) | — | +2.0% | −12.7% | −7.1% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | −2.8% | −16.5% | −10.9% | down next day | |
| Decentraland (MANA) | — | −0.6% | −11.1% | −5.5% | sideways next day | |
| SPX6900 (SPX) | — | +6.8% | +24.8% | +30.4% | up next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | +3.0% | −1.9% | +3.7% | up next day | |
| Plasma (XPL) | — | −2.3% | +8.6% | +21.9% | down next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −1.7% | −14.3% | −1.1% | down next day | |
| BOOK OF MEME (BOME) | — | +1.9% | −16.0% | −2.8% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −1.6% | −33.5% | −20.3% | down next day | |
| Conflux Network (CFX) | — | +0.5% | −13.5% | −0.3% | sideways next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | −14.7% | −28.6% | −10.3% | down next day | |
| Sei (SEI) | — | −11.8% | −27.7% | −9.4% | down next day | |
| io.net (IO) | — | −13.4% | −23.2% | −4.9% | down next day | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | — | −11.5% | −35.1% | −16.8% | down next day | |
| Blur (BLUR) | — | −14.6% | −22.5% | −4.2% | down next day | |
| OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) | — | −7.1% | −25.3% | −3.0% | down next day | |
| Floki Inu (FLOKI) | — | −11.1% | −30.5% | −8.2% | down next day | |
| IOTA (IOTA) | — | −10.1% | −19.0% | +3.3% | down next day | |
| Enjin Coin (ENJ) | — | −9.2% | −29.6% | −7.3% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −15.2% | −29.2% | −6.9% | down next day | |
| Akash Network (AKT) | — | −10.2% | −34.8% | −8.6% | down next day | |
| Ontology (ONT) | — | −6.2% | −27.0% | −0.8% | down next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +1.2% | −59.9% | −36.3% | up next day | |
| Mina Protocol (MINA) | — | +0.2% | −30.7% | −7.1% | sideways next day | |
| Ordinals (ORDI) | — | −0.2% | −37.6% | −14.0% | sideways next day | |
| THETA (THETA) | — | −1.8% | −29.0% | −5.4% | down next day | |
| Fluid (FLUID) | — | −3.1% | −28.0% | −6.5% | down next day | |
| Phala Network (PHA) | — | −6.1% | −41.0% | −19.5% | down next day | |
| Aethir (ATH) | — | +7.2% | −38.0% | −16.4% | up next day | |
| Axelar (AXL) | — | +4.4% | −29.7% | −8.2% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −0.8% | −42.4% | −14.2% | sideways next day | |
| Gala (GALA) | — | −2.7% | −43.7% | −15.5% | down next day | |
| Livepeer (LPT) | — | −11.8% | −39.0% | −10.8% | down next day | |
| Plasma (XPL) | — | +5.1% | −27.2% | −2.7% | up next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | — | +2.7% | −35.5% | −11.0% | up next day | |
| Kamino (KMNO) | — | −5.4% | −45.5% | −21.1% | down next day | |
| Kaia (KAIA) | — | +3.6% | +11.5% | +34.5% | up next day | |
| SPX6900 (SPX) | — | −8.8% | −33.9% | −6.2% | down next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | 0.0% | −43.7% | −16.1% | sideways next day | |
| BOOK OF MEME (BOME) | — | +0.7% | −31.8% | −4.2% | sideways next day | |
| io.net (IO) | — | −5.2% | −29.2% | −1.6% | down next day | |
| Immutable X (IMX) | — | −6.0% | −40.3% | −12.6% | down next day | |
| Oasis Network (ROSE) | — | +7.8% | −37.9% | −10.3% | up next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | — | −2.5% | −21.6% | +6.0% | down next day | |
| Mubarak (MUBARAK) | — | +5.8% | −8.6% | +1.5% | up next day | |
| Gala (GALA) | — | +16.3% | −17.3% | −7.1% | up next day | |
| The Graph (GRT) | — | +12.2% | −8.9% | +1.3% | up next day | |
| Kaia (KAIA) | — | +6.1% | 0.0% | +10.2% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| dogwifhat (WIF) | — | +8.7% | +4.3% | +9.1% | up next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | +6.4% | −17.8% | −13.1% | up next day | |
| BOOK OF MEME (BOME) | — | +11.2% | +4.5% | +9.3% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 248 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 41% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 102 of the 248 measured past cases of funding extreme lows of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 36% to 46% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 248.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 45% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 35% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 250 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every funding extreme low with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.