How often it went up96 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Funding extreme lows of mid-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 96 of the 102 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 46 of those 96 closed higher — a base rate of 48%, with a 90% range of 40% to 56%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 61 of the 89 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (69%).
- The typical day-30 move was +5.7%, the best +213.8% and the worst −49.8%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −0.4% vs BTC and beat it in 49.4% of 89 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 45% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 53% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 4 days ago · PEPE Pepe next day +6.6% · 30 days lands
- 9 days ago · AAVE Aave next day +0.3% · 7 days −12.4% · 30 days lands
- 13 days ago · QNT Quant next day −13.9% · 7 days −17.6% · 30 days lands
- 17 days ago · INJ Injective Protocol next day −4.6% · 7 days −1.7% · 30 days lands
- 18 days ago · LIT Lighter 30 days lands
- 19 days ago · ARB Arbitrum next day +2.5% · 7 days −9.6% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme low can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme lows of mid-cap tokens →
Every past case102 cases
Every past funding extreme low behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 102 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Pepe (PEPE) | — | +6.6% | in 26 days | in 26 days | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.3% | in 21 days | in 21 days | sideways next day | |
| Quant (QNT) | — | −13.9% | in 17 days | in 17 days | down next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | −4.6% | in 13 days | in 13 days | down next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | in 12 days | in 12 days | not measured yet | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +2.5% | in 11 days | in 11 days | up next day | |
| Akedo (AKE) | — | −14.0% | in 7 days | in 7 days | down next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | in 4 days | in 4 days | not measured yet | |
| Shiba Inu (SHIB) | — | +9.4% | in 3 days | in 3 days | up next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | — | +5.1% | +62.5% | +56.5% | up next day | |
| Akedo (AKE) | — | −12.0% | +58.1% | +51.0% | down next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | +10.3% | +59.4% | +51.8% | up next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | — | +3.8% | +5.7% | +0.4% | up next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | — | −3.2% | +27.5% | +20.6% | down next day | |
| JUST (JST) | — | −2.3% | +22.7% | +15.6% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +9.7% | +130.3% | +113.1% | up next day | |
| Tether Gold (XAUT) | — | +4.1% | +1.2% | −23.8% | up next day | |
| Algorand (ALGO) | — | −0.5% | +13.4% | −7.8% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +3.2% | +92.2% | +71.5% | up next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | — | −4.9% | +13.8% | −7.0% | down next day | |
| JUST (JST) | — | +1.4% | +4.7% | −16.1% | up next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | −4.7% | +37.0% | +15.1% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | — | +1.9% | +52.6% | +27.7% | up next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | +2.9% | +20.7% | −4.2% | up next day | |
| PAX Gold (PAXG) | — | +2.3% | +4.1% | −20.8% | up next day | |
| Canton Network (CC) | — | −15.9% | −1.5% | −25.7% | down next day | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | — | −3.1% | +29.5% | +7.8% | down next day | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | — | −2.1% | −10.4% | −33.6% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.4% | +31.9% | +9.7% | down next day | |
| PAX Gold (PAXG) | — | −0.8% | +9.4% | −12.9% | sideways next day | |
| VeChain (VET) | — | +3.1% | +51.3% | +29.5% | up next day | |
| Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) | — | −0.4% | +15.6% | −10.3% | sideways next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | −7.5% | +10.9% | −9.9% | down next day | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | — | −1.9% | +26.1% | +4.1% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −6.5% | +11.6% | −10.4% | down next day | |
| Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) | — | +5.9% | +62.9% | +39.8% | up next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | +1.7% | +12.5% | −10.7% | up next day | |
| Akedo (AKE) | — | +14.4% | +213.8% | +190.7% | up next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | — | +1.3% | +59.2% | +36.1% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Classic (ETC) | — | +0.3% | +0.6% | −11.3% | sideways next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | — | −4.3% | −10.5% | −10.4% | down next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | −1.5% | −6.8% | −7.7% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −0.7% | −17.3% | −15.8% | sideways next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −1.4% | +7.0% | +10.1% | down next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Shiba Inu (SHIB) | — | +1.9% | +7.2% | +5.4% | up next day | |
| Algorand (ALGO) | — | +1.6% | −6.0% | −7.8% | up next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | −2.3% | −34.0% | −15.8% | down next day | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | — | −4.5% | −14.5% | +2.6% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −1.2% | −0.6% | +15.4% | down next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Worldcoin (WLD) | — | +0.8% | +181.2% | +197.1% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −4.0% | −20.6% | −4.4% | down next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | −5.0% | +2.5% | +21.2% | down next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | — | −3.6% | −17.4% | +1.3% | down next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | — | +5.5% | −28.2% | −2.9% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −0.3% | −15.6% | −0.4% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −5.1% | −17.2% | −8.5% | down next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | — | +7.2% | +24.7% | +33.4% | up next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | −3.1% | −0.7% | +4.2% | down next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | −4.5% | +46.4% | +51.8% | down next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | — | −1.2% | +2.9% | +8.2% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −1.9% | +3.4% | +1.1% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.7% | −2.7% | −5.1% | up next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | — | +2.8% | +11.4% | +6.3% | up next day | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | — | +3.1% | +60.6% | +55.5% | up next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | — | −3.0% | −10.6% | −12.1% | down next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | — | +0.4% | +5.7% | +4.2% | sideways next day | |
| Worldcoin (WLD) | — | +0.3% | −9.5% | −11.0% | sideways next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | — | −5.3% | −4.4% | −7.5% | down next day | |
| Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) | — | −1.2% | −6.8% | −18.9% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −1.7% | +17.9% | +7.7% | down next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | — | +0.6% | +24.4% | +12.4% | sideways next day | |
| Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) | — | −1.2% | +9.1% | −5.4% | down next day | |
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | — | −1.3% | +20.7% | +6.2% | down next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | — | +6.0% | +21.8% | +7.2% | up next day | |
| Kaspa (KAS) | — | +2.5% | +20.3% | +5.8% | up next day | |
| Pepe (PEPE) | — | −5.4% | +16.4% | +4.9% | down next day | |
| Avalanche (AVAX) | — | −0.6% | +5.1% | −6.4% | sideways next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | +10.2% | +14.0% | −4.0% | up next day | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | — | +4.3% | +25.1% | +7.2% | up next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | — | −0.9% | +49.7% | +29.5% | sideways next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | +6.9% | +1.2% | −9.2% | up next day | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | — | +4.4% | +3.2% | −7.2% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | — | 0.0% | +0.8% | −14.5% | sideways next day | |
| Pepe (PEPE) | — | +7.6% | +15.5% | +0.3% | up next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | — | +3.6% | +4.3% | −10.9% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Classic (ETC) | — | +8.0% | +5.1% | −10.1% | up next day | |
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | — | +4.3% | +1.2% | −14.0% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −3.1% | +22.2% | +16.7% | down next day | |
| Ether.fi (ETHFI) | — | +9.0% | −15.3% | −20.8% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −6.7% | −4.0% | −8.3% | down next day | |
| Dash (DASH) | — | +7.1% | −49.8% | −21.9% | up next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | — | −0.8% | −33.0% | −5.0% | sideways next day | |
| JUST (JST) | — | +0.6% | +4.9% | +31.2% | sideways next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | — | +30.5% | −28.1% | −5.5% | up next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | −0.8% | −46.9% | −24.2% | sideways next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | — | +2.3% | −43.2% | −20.6% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −0.0% | −38.0% | −15.2% | sideways next day | |
| PAX Gold (PAXG) | — | −0.2% | +9.0% | +22.3% | sideways next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 96 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 48% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 46 of the 96 measured past cases of funding extreme lows of mid-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 40% to 56% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 96.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 45% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 53% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 102 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every funding extreme low with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.