How often it went up33 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Funding extreme lows of mid-cap L1 and L2 tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 33 of the 33 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 19 of those 33 closed higher — a base rate of 58%, with a 90% range of 43% to 71%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 23 of the 32 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (72%).
- The typical day-30 move was +12.1%, the best +130.3% and the worst −49.8%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −4.8% vs BTC and beat it in 40.6% of 32 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 50% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 69% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 19 days ago · ARB Arbitrum next day +2.5% · 7 days −9.6% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme low can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme lows of mid-cap L1 and L2 tokens →
Every past case33 cases
Every past funding extreme low behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 33 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +2.5% | in 11 days | in 11 days | up next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | — | +5.1% | +62.5% | +56.5% | up next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | — | −3.2% | +27.5% | +20.6% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +9.7% | +130.3% | +113.1% | up next day | |
| Algorand (ALGO) | — | −0.5% | +13.4% | −7.8% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +3.2% | +92.2% | +71.5% | up next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | +2.9% | +20.7% | −4.2% | up next day | |
| VeChain (VET) | — | +3.1% | +51.3% | +29.5% | up next day | |
| Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) | — | −0.4% | +15.6% | −10.3% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −6.5% | +11.6% | −10.4% | down next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | +1.7% | +12.5% | −10.7% | up next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | — | +1.3% | +59.2% | +36.1% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Classic (ETC) | — | +0.3% | +0.6% | −11.3% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −0.7% | −17.3% | −15.8% | sideways next day | |
| Algorand (ALGO) | — | +1.6% | −6.0% | −7.8% | up next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | −2.3% | −34.0% | −15.8% | down next day | |
| Stacks (STX) | — | +5.5% | −28.2% | −2.9% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −5.1% | −17.2% | −8.5% | down next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | −3.1% | −0.7% | +4.2% | down next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | — | +0.4% | +5.7% | +4.2% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −1.7% | +17.9% | +7.7% | down next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | — | +0.6% | +24.4% | +12.4% | sideways next day | |
| Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) | — | −1.2% | +9.1% | −5.4% | down next day | |
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | — | −1.3% | +20.7% | +6.2% | down next day | |
| Kaspa (KAS) | — | +2.5% | +20.3% | +5.8% | up next day | |
| Avalanche (AVAX) | — | −0.6% | +5.1% | −6.4% | sideways next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | +10.2% | +14.0% | −4.0% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Classic (ETC) | — | +8.0% | +5.1% | −10.1% | up next day | |
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | — | +4.3% | +1.2% | −14.0% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −3.1% | +22.2% | +16.7% | down next day | |
| Dash (DASH) | — | +7.1% | −49.8% | −21.9% | up next day | |
| Sui (SUI) | — | −0.8% | −46.9% | −24.2% | sideways next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | — | +2.3% | −43.2% | −20.6% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 33 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 58% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 19 of the 33 measured past cases of funding extreme lows of mid-cap L1 and L2 tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 43% to 71% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 33.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 50% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 69% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 33 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every funding extreme low with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.