PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
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Pattern · usage surges · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-14

Usage surges with BTC below its 50-day average: all 214 measured cases

usage surge btc trend · down⚠ flipped on recent cases 295 cases on record last 5 cases: 4 up

Explained and tested in our research: What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a usage surge?

higher the next day

49%

105 of 214 past cases

49% of past cases were higher (90% range 43-55%)

90% range 43%–55%

higher after 30 days

42%

90 of 215 cases measured after 30 days

42% of past cases were higher (90% range 36-47%)

90% range 36%–47% · typical move −5.7%

typical next day
−0.1%
typical after 30 days
−5.7%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
−3.4%
best after 30 days
+430.7%
worst after 30 days
−73.6%
30 days: up · sideways · down
69 · 37 · 109

⚠ recent-cases check · flipped: 48% → 51% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

USAGE UPall usage surges against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
+6+1…+10
7 days
+3−2…+8
30 days
+9+4…+14

After usage surges, the price was higher 30 days later in 50% of 505 cases on 392 separate days, against 42% of the same coins' ordinary days: +9 points (95% range +4 to +14; older half +9, newer half +8). The edge is clear the next day too. Coin by coin, it is a likely driver on 5 coins.

Every past usage surge, 30 days on 215 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 61 rose · ▼ 95 fell · ◆ 59 sideways (±8.9% over 30 days)

Each line is one past usage surge: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · 80 of the 215 cases measured that far, evenly through their dates · past cases, not a projection

Usage surges with BTC below its 50-day average: 214 of the 295 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 105 of those 214 closed higher — a base rate of 49%, with a 90% range of 43% to 55%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up214 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

Usage surges with BTC below its 50-day average: 214 of the 295 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 105 of those 214 closed higher — a base rate of 49%, with a 90% range of 43% to 55%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.

  • By day 30, 90 of the 215 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (42%).
  • The typical day-30 move was −5.7%, the best +430.7% and the worst −73.6%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −3.4% vs BTC and beat it in 40.5% of 215 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 48% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 51% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled usage surge can be matched to this pattern before it happens.

Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Usage surges →

Every past case295 cases

Every past usage surge behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 295 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

295 past cases of usage surges with btc below its 50-day average, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2026
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.1% of circ. +3.3% +22.9% +3.0% up next day
PulseX (PLSX) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) 2.6% of circ. +0.7% +38.5% +13.6% sideways next day
edgeX (EDGE) 2.0% of circ. +6.1% −29.4% −26.8% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) 137.8% of circ. −1.1% −20.5% −20.0% down next day
Uniswap (UNI) 2.4% of circ. +2.0% −0.5% −0.0% up next day
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) 2.6% of circ. −6.2% −9.3% −9.0% down next day
Venice Token (VVV) 5.0% of circ. −5.5% +6.3% +6.6% down next day
Mamo (MAMO) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Rocket Pool (RPL) 2.3% of circ. −2.2% −17.4% −17.8% down next day
Pyth Network (PYTH) 8.3% of circ. +18.8% +4.2% +2.6% up next day
Bonk (BONK) 2.1% of circ. +11.5% −33.6% −36.8% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) 9.5% of circ. +5.5% +13.7% +6.4% up next day
Pendle (PENDLE) 2.4% of circ. +4.5% +12.9% +5.5% up next day
API3 (API3) 2.5% of circ. −3.3% −7.5% −13.6% down next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 2.5% of circ. +7.6% −4.0% −13.3% up next day
Liquity (LQTY) 2.6% of circ. +3.4% +11.4% +2.0% up next day
SoSoValue (SOSO) 2.0% of circ. +1.7% +3.2% +2.7% up next day
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Tokenlon (LON) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Overtime (OVER) 2.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Venice Token (VVV) 3.1% of circ. −4.4% −27.1% −31.1% down next day
ApeX Token (APEX) 2.3% of circ. −1.8% +9.4% +9.1% down next day
Gains Network (GNS) 2.2% of circ. +4.8% +22.4% +22.2% up next day
Hyperliquid (HYPE) 2.0% of circ. −16.5% +5.2% +4.9% down next day
Sushi (SUSHI) 2.0% of circ. −3.4% −6.4% −4.7% down next day
Lighter (LIT) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Minswap (MIN) 2.6% of circ. +6.7% +11.8% +7.7% up next day
Morpho (MORPHO) 2.3% of circ. +9.1% +22.2% +18.1% up next day
Rocket Pool (RPL) 13.5% of circ. +2.3% +34.6% +30.5% up next day
Velo (VELO) 2.2% of circ. −2.4% −7.8% −11.8% down next day
Moonwell (WELL) 3.1% of circ. +8.8% +9.9% +5.8% up next day
USD.AI (CHIP) 9.0% of circ. −1.7% +1.8% −3.1% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.7% of circ. +4.0% +39.7% +34.8% up next day
Pyth Network (PYTH) 2.3% of circ. −13.8% +3.6% +5.2% down next day
Stargate Finance (STG) 2.1% of circ. −22.1% −45.4% −39.1% down next day
Streamflow (STREAM) 2.5% of circ. +3.4% +14.4% +20.7% up next day
Aquarius (AQUA) 4.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SaucerSwap (SAUCE) 3.1% of circ. −6.5% −30.6% −16.8% down next day
Balancer (BAL) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Uniswap (UNI) 2.0% of circ. +0.1% −4.1% +14.9% sideways next day
Limitless (LMTS) 2.4% of circ. +1.0% −15.0% +4.4% up next day
JUST (JST) 2.5% of circ. −0.5% −12.4% +8.4% sideways next day
Mamo (MAMO) 2.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Metadium (META) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
PulseX (PLSX) 2.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Pyth Network (PYTH) 4.0% of circ. −1.7% +19.4% +0.1% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.3% of circ. +0.7% +21.2% +1.9% sideways next day
Usual (USUAL) 24.8% of circ. −3.6% +14.3% −5.0% down next day
stake.link (SDL) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
USD.AI (CHIP) 5.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 2.1% of circ. +1.6% −6.1% −16.9% up next day
Rocket Pool (RPL) 13.6% of circ. +0.6% +6.9% −3.9% sideways next day
PulseX (PLSX) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Stader (SD) 3.5% of circ. +0.1% −2.5% −6.6% sideways next day
Venice Token (VVV) 6.3% of circ. +12.0% +38.2% +33.9% up next day
Stargate Finance (STG) 2.2% of circ. +5.2% +19.9% +12.2% up next day
Alchemix (ALCX) 33.8% of circ. −19.1% −26.5% −33.4% down next day
Veranta (AVNT) 2.3% of circ. −2.9% −9.8% −16.7% down next day
Pyth Network (PYTH) 5.9% of circ. −5.7% −19.4% −12.0% down next day
Derive (DRV) 2.0% of circ. +0.8% +110.8% +112.8% sideways next day
GMX (GMX) 2.3% of circ. +1.8% −15.4% −13.4% up next day
Render (RENDER) 2.3% of circ. +4.3% +44.7% +46.8% up next day
Pendle (PENDLE) 2.1% of circ. +8.2% +1.3% −5.2% up next day
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) 2.0% of circ. −7.0% +7.9% +6.4% down next day
Venice Token (VVV) 3.0% of circ. −0.2% +250.4% +247.4% sideways next day
Rocket Pool (RPL) 7.5% of circ. −3.1% +19.4% +18.4% down next day
Aave (AAVE) 2.1% of circ. −1.3% −6.4% −3.4% down next day
Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) 2.1% of circ. −5.5% −4.8% −1.7% down next day
Tokenlon (LON) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Liquity (LQTY) 2.7% of circ. −2.3% −20.9% −17.9% down next day
LayerZero (ZRO) 2.0% of circ. +6.7% +23.3% +26.3% up next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) 2.3% of circ. −8.8% −36.8% −28.7% down next day
Morpho (MORPHO) 2.1% of circ. −0.6% +52.5% +60.6% sideways next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 3.6% of circ. −5.0% −25.4% −17.3% down next day
Balancer (BAL) 4.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Gains Network (GNS) 2.2% of circ. −10.0% −13.1% −3.0% down next day
Pyth Network (PYTH) 5.4% of circ. −20.0% −4.8% +5.3% down next day
VVS Finance (VVS) 2.1% of circ. −12.8% −9.6% +0.5% down next day
Derive (DRV) 2.0% of circ. −9.0% −17.9% −8.0% down next day
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) 2.5% of circ. −9.6% +2.3% +12.3% down next day
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) 2.8% of circ. +4.7% −19.3% −13.7% up next day
Uniswap (UNI) 2.2% of circ. +0.6% +3.6% +9.2% sideways next day
Moonwell (WELL) 2.6% of circ. +1.7% +0.9% +6.5% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 2.3% of circ. −2.0% −15.9% −2.7% down next day
Suilend (SEND) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Definitive (EDGE) 2.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Pendle (PENDLE) 2.1% of circ. −11.2% −24.9% −6.6% down next day
GMX (GMX) 2.2% of circ. +0.6% −11.7% +12.8% sideways next day
Dolomite (DOLO) 2.1% of circ. +0.1% −25.4% −1.4% sideways next day
MetaMask USD (MUSD) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2025
Veranta (AVNT) 2.0% of circ. −9.7% −28.3% −23.5% down next day
Meteora (MET) 2.0% of circ. +3.1% −0.9% +3.8% up next day
Render (RENDER) 2.1% of circ. −0.6% +35.4% +38.4% sideways next day
Tornado Cash (TORN) 3.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 2.3% of circ. −1.3% −14.0% −19.1% down next day
JUST (JST) 2.2% of circ. +0.9% +0.3% −9.2% sideways next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.1% of circ. +0.2% +48.3% +47.1% sideways next day
Bonk (BONK) 2.1% of circ. −2.5% +11.1% +12.8% down next day
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) 2.5% of circ. −3.5% −10.0% −15.1% down next day
Limitless (LMTS) 8.9% of circ. −3.9% −34.2% −32.8% down next day
Lombard (BARD) 133.6% of circ. +3.7% +9.2% +9.2% up next day
Pendle (PENDLE) 2.8% of circ. +12.1% −21.8% −25.0% up next day
Alchemix (ALCX) 3.4% of circ. +3.4% −24.7% −21.2% up next day
Sport.Fun (FUN) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 2.2% of circ. +0.3% −39.5% −30.9% sideways next day
Tornado Cash (TORN) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
NAVI Protocol (NAVX) 2.4% of circ. +1.2% −38.2% −28.8% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.2% of circ. +4.6% −40.9% −28.7% up next day
Near Protocol (NEAR) 2.5% of circ. +41.9% −12.4% +1.7% up next day
BankrCoin (BNKR) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) 2.8% of circ. +5.8% −29.9% −10.0% up next day
Gains Network (GNS) 2.0% of circ. +3.2% +5.5% +18.8% up next day
RE (RE) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Pendle (PENDLE) 2.4% of circ. −3.8% −28.9% −15.2% down next day
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) 2.5% of circ. −8.6% −6.3% +7.1% down next day
VVS Finance (VVS) 2.0% of circ. −10.0% −29.5% −16.1% down next day
Lista DAO (LISTA) 2.2% of circ. +18.1% −19.2% −13.2% up next day
DoubleZero (2Z) 2.4% of circ. −28.8% −45.4% −31.5% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.1% of circ. −14.4% +20.7% +34.7% down next day
Stargate Finance (STG) 2.3% of circ. −1.0% −25.5% −28.4% down next day
DODO (DODO) 2.2% of circ. +3.2% −26.0% −30.1% up next day
Veranta (AVNT) 2.1% of circ. −25.2% −65.9% −64.5% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.1% of circ. −4.4% −6.3% +0.3% down next day
Cap (CAP) 12.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
USD.AI (CHIP) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Tornado Cash (TORN) 2.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 2.2% of circ. +0.5% −2.1% −7.6% sideways next day
Pendle (PENDLE) 2.4% of circ. −1.9% −1.5% −1.2% down next day
Render (RENDER) 2.2% of circ. −4.9% −5.8% −5.5% down next day
VVS Finance (VVS) 2.8% of circ. −7.8% −41.2% −40.9% down next day
SynFutures (F) 2.2% of circ. −1.4% +82.3% +84.2% down next day
Overtime (OVER) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 2.2% of circ. +12.1% +37.0% +35.7% up next day
Solv Protocol (SOLV) 2.5% of circ. +0.6% −3.3% −5.7% sideways next day
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) 2.4% of circ. −9.2% +49.6% +36.0% down next day
Definitive (EDGE) 2.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Spark (SPK) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.0% of circ. +11.6% +39.7% +8.9% up next day
Veranta (AVNT) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Rocket Pool (RPL) 2.1% of circ. +7.0% +47.5% +12.6% up next day
Stargate Finance (STG) 2.2% of circ. +6.7% +28.4% −6.5% up next day
Moonwell (WELL) 2.5% of circ. +10.8% +92.0% +57.1% up next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) 2.0% of circ. +12.6% +52.0% +21.6% up next day
Power Protocol (POWER) 229020.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Tornado Cash (TORN) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 2.0% of circ. +0.6% +6.3% −9.8% sideways next day
Lista DAO (LISTA) 2.0% of circ. −5.3% −10.8% −18.2% down next day
SUN (SUN) 2.1% of circ. +1.1% +5.6% −1.8% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.1% of circ. −1.1% −23.2% −32.1% down next day
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) 2.9% of circ. +0.9% −4.9% −6.0% sideways next day
Ankr (ANKR) 8.3% of circ. −2.1% −7.7% −8.4% down next day
Usual (USUAL) 3.1% of circ. +1.3% −9.5% −10.8% up next day
Rocket Pool (RPL) 2.4% of circ. −11.5% −37.2% −28.4% down next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) 2.3% of circ. −3.1% −30.2% −17.4% down next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) 2.2% of circ. +0.8% −5.7% +2.1% sideways next day
VVS Finance (VVS) 2.7% of circ. +24.1% +30.7% +34.6% up next day
Solv Protocol (SOLV) 2.7% of circ. +4.8% −15.7% −14.7% up next day
Dolomite (DOLO) 2.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Pendle (PENDLE) 2.9% of circ. +7.3% −5.4% −3.3% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) 2.1% of circ. −19.1% −29.4% −27.5% down next day
yearn.finance (YFI) 7.7% of circ. +0.8% −3.9% +0.8% sideways next day
Compound (COMP) 2.3% of circ. −3.7% −19.8% −10.1% down next day
Lista DAO (LISTA) 2.6% of circ. −4.3% −31.0% −15.8% down next day
Usual (USUAL) 2.1% of circ. −6.5% −30.6% −16.8% down next day
Solv Protocol (SOLV) 3.0% of circ. −3.0% +3.6% +17.4% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.8% of circ. +42.7% −13.5% +3.2% up next day
DODO (DODO) 2.0% of circ. +9.2% −15.7% +0.7% up next day
PulseX (PLSX) 2.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Veranta (AVNT) 2.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Moonwell (WELL) 2.6% of circ. −7.0% −32.9% −21.7% down next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) 2.1% of circ. −12.9% +0.3% +13.5% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Pump.fun (PUMP) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Renzo (REZ) 2.3% of circ. −10.2% −57.4% −56.9% down next day
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) 2.0% of circ. +15.6% −49.8% −59.2% up next day
2024
Power Protocol (POWER) 4443.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Usual (USUAL) 2.1% of circ. −6.2% −73.6% −80.0% down next day
Pendle (PENDLE) 2.1% of circ. +0.2% −33.3% −41.5% sideways next day
Cardano (ADA) 2.1% of circ. +2.1% 0.0% −10.2% up next day
Tornado Cash (TORN) 2.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
ApeX Token (APEX) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Across Protocol (ACX) 2.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Pendle (PENDLE) 2.7% of circ. −3.3% +31.6% +21.1% down next day
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Venus (XVS) 2.1% of circ. −3.9% +12.1% +1.4% down next day
SUN (SUN) 2.0% of circ. +62.2% +134.6% +128.9% up next day
Tornado Cash (TORN) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 2.2% of circ. −0.2% −9.0% −11.8% sideways next day
DODO (DODO) 6.4% of circ. −6.3% +1.5% +1.6% down next day
Spark (SPK) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
VVS Finance (VVS) 2.3% of circ. −6.0% −16.9% −11.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) 2.8% of circ. −2.1% +22.4% +26.1% down next day
Balancer (BAL) 2.1% of circ. +7.7% −7.5% −3.8% up next day
Tokenlon (LON) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Morpho (MORPHO) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Suilend (SEND) 2.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Moonwell (WELL) 2.3% of circ. +6.2% +31.0% +34.7% up next day
Aster (ASTER) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SynFutures (F) 2.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Moonwell (WELL) 2.5% of circ. −5.3% −42.9% −39.1% down next day
LayerZero (ZRO) 12.4% of circ. −7.6% +69.8% +64.5% down next day
Tornado Cash (TORN) 2.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
VVS Finance (VVS) 2.3% of circ. −2.8% −14.9% −26.2% down next day
Lista DAO (LISTA) 2.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SaucerSwap (SAUCE) 2.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Raydium (RAY) 2.4% of circ. −1.4% +11.2% +5.0% down next day
yearn.finance (YFI) 2.0% of circ. +0.3% +2.0% −4.2% sideways next day
Bitcoin (BTC) 2.0% of circ. −0.8% −3.7% 0.0% sideways next day
Ethena (ENA) 2.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Orderly Network (ORDER) 4.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) 2.0% of circ. −4.2% +2.2% −46.0% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 3.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Axie Infinity (AXS) 2.1% of circ. −0.7% +18.0% −12.3% sideways next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) 2.0% of circ. +2.0% +10.7% −13.4% up next day
2023
yearn.finance (YFI) 2.2% of circ. −0.1% +0.6% −8.0% sideways next day
Rocket Pool (RPL) 2.1% of circ. +1.8% −12.2% −20.5% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 5.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Balancer (BAL) 20.9% of circ. −5.9% −8.4% −5.5% down next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 3.2% of circ. −2.8% +1.3% +0.8% down next day
DODO (DODO) 2.1% of circ. −3.2% −11.0% −13.7% down next day
Osmosis (OSMO) 2.0% of circ. −1.6% −23.1% −25.8% down next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 2.6% of circ. −4.8% −19.8% −9.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) 2.1% of circ. +0.7% −13.9% −2.6% sideways next day
Sushi (SUSHI) 19.8% of circ. +5.2% −12.9% −1.6% up next day
Rocket Pool (RPL) 2.2% of circ. 0.0% −14.7% −3.4% sideways next day
DODO (DODO) 2.4% of circ. +6.0% +5.6% −11.6% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 6.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Axie Infinity (AXS) 69.7% of circ. +2.7% −9.9% −24.1% up next day
yearn.finance (YFI) 2.1% of circ. −2.8% −5.5% −15.3% down next day
Fluid (FLUID) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.4% of circ. +0.5% −16.1% −12.3% sideways next day
Uniswap (UNI) 2.1% of circ. +3.3% −6.8% −2.6% up next day
MetaMask USD (MUSD) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Raydium (RAY) 2.2% of circ. −9.7% −10.8% −3.5% down next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.1% of circ. +13.6% +18.4% −29.3% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) 2.2% of circ. +16.4% +34.5% −13.1% up next day
Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) 2962.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
yearn.finance (YFI) 2.1% of circ. +5.6% +41.9% +2.1% up next day
2022
Ankr (ANKR) 2.0% of circ. +4.0% +34.2% +6.0% up next day
yearn.finance (YFI) 2.0% of circ. −2.6% −24.6% −23.8% down next day
Raydium (RAY) 4.1% of circ. −4.7% −34.5% −35.9% down next day
Balancer (BAL) 2.0% of circ. −4.4% +8.2% +3.8% down next day
VVS Finance (VVS) 3.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Gains Network (GNS) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Uniswap (UNI) 2.1% of circ. −3.6% +2.6% +5.5% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.1% of circ. +7.4% +4.2% −3.4% up next day
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 2.1% of circ. −36.4% −12.0% +4.3% down next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.7% of circ. +0.4% −25.1% −11.7% sideways next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 3.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Ankr (ANKR) 2.0% of circ. −15.1% −30.7% −14.4% down next day
yearn.finance (YFI) 3.0% of circ. −16.4% −18.3% −2.0% down next day
BENQI (QI) 2.3% of circ. +2.0% −10.9% −5.3% up next day
Axie Infinity (AXS) 2.4% of circ. +13.8% +24.9% +12.4% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 2.5% of circ. +4.6% +61.8% +50.0% up next day
yearn.finance (YFI) 11.8% of circ. +5.3% +83.3% +65.2% up next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.2% of circ. −2.3% +102.9% +93.3% down next day
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 2.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Balancer (BAL) 2.0% of circ. −8.4% −49.9% −23.5% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.2% of circ. +8.3% −24.8% −1.6% up next day
Tokenlon (LON) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.2% of circ. −33.9% −48.0% −41.8% down next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 2.2% of circ. +30.4% −32.1% −7.3% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Tether (USDT) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 2.0% of circ. +5.8% +14.9% +14.2% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 7.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
PAX Gold (PAXG) 2.0% of circ. +0.4% +2.7% +9.7% sideways next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.3% of circ. +9.1% −16.3% −30.7% up next day
Balancer (BAL) 2.0% of circ. +1.7% +6.0% −0.3% up next day
Tether (USDT) 2.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2021
Balancer (BAL) 2.3% of circ. −9.3% +9.0% +26.5% down next day
THORChain (RUNE) 6.6% of circ. −10.8% +88.1% +41.9% down next day
Axie Infinity (AXS) 2.3% of circ. +69.1% +430.7% +409.4% up next day
PAX Gold (PAXG) 2.1% of circ. −3.7% −2.5% +19.3% down next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Balancer (BAL) 14.0% of circ. +14.6% −23.4% −27.1% up next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.0% of circ. −0.9% −9.7% +0.3% sideways next day
THORChain (RUNE) 2.1% of circ. +8.2% −43.6% −30.4% up next day
Cardano (ADA) 2.1% of circ. −10.1% −29.3% −12.9% down next day
Uniswap (UNI) 2.2% of circ. −2.0% −37.7% −16.3% down next day
Tokenlon (LON) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Axie Infinity (AXS) 3.5% of circ. −4.9% −55.8% −18.9% down next day
Bitcoin (BTC) 2.2% of circ. −3.2% −33.0% 0.0% down next day
Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2020
Sky (SKY) 8.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
TRON (TRX) 3.4% of circ. +0.1% +27.4% −0.0% sideways next day
Uniswap (UNI) 12.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Compound (COMP) 4.7% of circ. — −28.2% −26.4% not measured yet
2018
Bitcoin (BTC) 2.2% of circ. +1.7% +36.5% 0.0% up next day

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 214 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answers generated from this count

What does the 49% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 105 of the 214 measured past cases of usage surges with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 43% to 55% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 214.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 48% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 51% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 295 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every usage surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.