How often it went up76 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Usage surges of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 76 of the 98 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 44 of those 76 closed higher — a base rate of 58%, with a 90% range of 48% to 67%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 36 of the 77 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (47%).
- The typical day-30 move was −2.1%, the best +430.7% and the worst −55.8%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −5.2% vs BTC and beat it in 40.3% of 77 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 52% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 67% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled usage surge can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Usage surges of small-cap tokens →
Every past case98 cases
Every past usage surge behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 98 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 2.1% of circ. | +3.3% | +22.9% | +3.0% | up next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | 2.6% of circ. | +0.7% | +38.5% | +13.6% | sideways next day | |
| edgeX (EDGE) | 2.0% of circ. | +6.1% | −29.4% | −26.8% | up next day | |
| Bonk (BONK) | 2.1% of circ. | +11.5% | −33.6% | −36.8% | up next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | 9.5% of circ. | +5.5% | +13.7% | +6.4% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 2.4% of circ. | +4.5% | +12.9% | +5.5% | up next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | 2.5% of circ. | +7.6% | −4.0% | −13.3% | up next day | |
| Velo (VELO) | 2.2% of circ. | −2.4% | −7.8% | −11.8% | down next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | 9.0% of circ. | −1.7% | +1.8% | −3.1% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 2.7% of circ. | +4.0% | +39.7% | +34.8% | up next day | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | 2.1% of circ. | −22.1% | −45.4% | −39.1% | down next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | 2.6% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 2.3% of circ. | +0.7% | +21.2% | +1.9% | sideways next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | 5.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | 2.1% of circ. | +1.6% | −6.1% | −16.9% | up next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | 2.2% of circ. | +5.2% | +19.9% | +12.2% | up next day | |
| Derive (DRV) | 2.0% of circ. | +0.8% | +110.8% | +112.8% | sideways next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | 2.3% of circ. | +1.8% | −15.4% | −13.4% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 2.1% of circ. | +8.2% | +1.3% | −5.2% | up next day | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | 2.0% of circ. | +6.7% | +23.3% | +26.3% | up next day | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | 2.3% of circ. | −8.8% | −36.8% | −28.7% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 3.6% of circ. | −5.0% | −25.4% | −17.3% | down next day | |
| Derive (DRV) | 2.0% of circ. | −9.0% | −17.9% | −8.0% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | 2.3% of circ. | −2.0% | −15.9% | −2.7% | down next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 2.1% of circ. | −11.2% | −24.9% | −6.6% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | 2.2% of circ. | +0.6% | −11.7% | +12.8% | sideways next day | |
| MetaMask USD (MUSD) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Meteora (MET) | 2.0% of circ. | +3.1% | −0.9% | +3.8% | up next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | 2.3% of circ. | −1.3% | −14.0% | −19.1% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 2.1% of circ. | +0.2% | +48.3% | +47.1% | sideways next day | |
| Bonk (BONK) | 2.1% of circ. | −2.5% | +11.1% | +12.8% | down next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 2.8% of circ. | +12.1% | −21.8% | −25.0% | up next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | 2.2% of circ. | +0.3% | −39.5% | −30.9% | sideways next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 2.2% of circ. | +4.6% | −40.9% | −28.7% | up next day | |
| RE (RE) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 2.4% of circ. | −3.8% | −28.9% | −15.2% | down next day | |
| DoubleZero (2Z) | 2.4% of circ. | −28.8% | −45.4% | −31.5% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 2.1% of circ. | −14.4% | +20.7% | +34.7% | down next day | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | 2.3% of circ. | −1.0% | −25.5% | −28.4% | down next day | |
| Cap (CAP) | 12.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | 2.2% of circ. | +0.5% | −2.1% | −7.6% | sideways next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 2.4% of circ. | −1.9% | −1.5% | −1.2% | down next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | 2.2% of circ. | +12.1% | +37.0% | +35.7% | up next day | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | 2.2% of circ. | +6.7% | +28.4% | −6.5% | up next day | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | 2.0% of circ. | +12.6% | +52.0% | +21.6% | up next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | 2.0% of circ. | +0.6% | +6.3% | −9.8% | sideways next day | |
| SUN (SUN) | 2.1% of circ. | +1.1% | +5.6% | −1.8% | up next day | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | 2.3% of circ. | −3.1% | −30.2% | −17.4% | down next day | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | 2.2% of circ. | +0.8% | −5.7% | +2.1% | sideways next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 2.9% of circ. | +7.3% | −5.4% | −3.3% | up next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | 2.1% of circ. | −19.1% | −29.4% | −27.5% | down next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | 7.7% of circ. | +0.8% | −3.9% | +0.8% | sideways next day | |
| Compound (COMP) | 2.3% of circ. | −3.7% | −19.8% | −10.1% | down next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | 2.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | 2.1% of circ. | −12.9% | +0.3% | +13.5% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 2.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 2.1% of circ. | +0.2% | −33.3% | −41.5% | sideways next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 2.7% of circ. | −3.3% | +31.6% | +21.1% | down next day | |
| Venus (XVS) | 2.1% of circ. | −3.9% | +12.1% | +1.4% | down next day | |
| SUN (SUN) | 2.0% of circ. | +62.2% | +134.6% | +128.9% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | 2.2% of circ. | −0.2% | −9.0% | −11.8% | sideways next day | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | 12.4% of circ. | −7.6% | +69.8% | +64.5% | down next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | 2.0% of circ. | +0.3% | +2.0% | −4.2% | sideways next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 3.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | 2.1% of circ. | −0.7% | +18.0% | −12.3% | sideways next day | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | 2.0% of circ. | +2.0% | +10.7% | −13.4% | up next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| yearn.finance (YFI) | 2.2% of circ. | −0.1% | +0.6% | −8.0% | sideways next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 5.6% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | 2.6% of circ. | −4.8% | −19.8% | −9.3% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 6.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | 69.7% of circ. | +2.7% | −9.9% | −24.1% | up next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | 2.1% of circ. | −2.8% | −5.5% | −15.3% | down next day | |
| Fluid (FLUID) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MetaMask USD (MUSD) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | 2.2% of circ. | +16.4% | +34.5% | −13.1% | up next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | 2.1% of circ. | +5.6% | +41.9% | +2.1% | up next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| yearn.finance (YFI) | 2.0% of circ. | −2.6% | −24.6% | −23.8% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | 2.1% of circ. | −36.4% | −12.0% | +4.3% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 3.6% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | 3.0% of circ. | −16.4% | −18.3% | −2.0% | down next day | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | 2.4% of circ. | +13.8% | +24.9% | +12.4% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | 2.5% of circ. | +4.6% | +61.8% | +50.0% | up next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | 11.8% of circ. | +5.3% | +83.3% | +65.2% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | 2.2% of circ. | +30.4% | −32.1% | −7.3% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | 2.0% of circ. | +5.8% | +14.9% | +14.2% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 7.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| THORChain (RUNE) | 6.6% of circ. | −10.8% | +88.1% | +41.9% | down next day | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | 2.3% of circ. | +69.1% | +430.7% | +409.4% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | 2.1% of circ. | +8.2% | −43.6% | −30.4% | up next day | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | 3.5% of circ. | −4.9% | −55.8% | −18.9% | down next day | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Compound (COMP) | 4.7% of circ. | — | −28.2% | −26.4% | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 76 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 58% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 44 of the 76 measured past cases of usage surges of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 48% to 67% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 76.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 52% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 67% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 98 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every usage surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.