Daily research · Chart patterns · written
What happens to a micro-cap coin the day after a pump day?
Short answer
5,976 cases since 2018: in the middle one, a micro-cap coin moved −3.5% the day after a pump day. It ended lower 68% of the time. One case in 10 did better than +8.9%, one in 10 worse than −12.5%. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
−3.5%
the next day, the middle case
How often
68%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+8.9%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−12.5%
or worse
Cases
5,976
2018-2026, on 1,603 days
Higher 32% of the time against 47% on ordinary days (1,583 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern5,976 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day the coin rose at least 3 times its usual daily move over the 60 days before, and at least 5%, on a coin worth under $50M that day (micro caps), and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 5,976 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 5,976 measured cases on 1,603 separate days, from Aug 17, 2018 to Oct 6, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 7, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A pump day, a rise several times the coin's usual daily move, draws attention and late money. Traders watch whether it keeps going or gives the gain back.
That is the reasoning behind watching pump days; whether it held over our 5,976 cases since 2018 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 5,976 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 1,583 of the 1,603 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 5,976 cases fall on 1,603 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results1379 up · 2990 down
Results
as of · every past case, Aug 17, 2018 to Oct 6, 2026
Of the 5,976 cases, 1,379 ended up, 2,990 down and 1,607 sideways (within ±3.2%) a day later; the middle case −3.5%, the average day −1.6%.
ended up (1379)ended down (2990)sideways, within ±3.2% (1607)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 5,976 1,603 days | −3.5% | −0.24% | 32% | 47% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 5,925 1,597 days | −5.4% | −1.6% | 34% | 44% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 30 days | 4,608 1,455 days | −10.6% | −8.0% | 33% | 38% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −5.4% over 5,925 cases; 30 days, typical −10.6% over 4,608 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −5.5% in 2022 to −2.1% in 2019; 8 of 8 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2 | −5.5% | 50% | 50% |
| 2019 | 20 | −2.1% | 42% | 58% |
| 2020 | 131 | −3.5% | 32% | 68% |
| 2021 | 343 | −4.7% | 31% | 69% |
| 2022 | 433 | −5.5% | 26% | 74% |
| 2023 | 591 | −3.0% | 31% | 69% |
| 2024 | 870 | −3.3% | 31% | 69% |
| 2025 | 1,348 | −3.4% | 34% | 66% |
| 2026 | 2,238 | −3.0% | 33% | 67% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUNDOG | SUNDOG +24.7% that day | open | open | open | |
| WELL | WELL +16.9% that day | −15.6% | open | open | |
| UOS | UOS +36.2% that day | −13.6% | open | open | |
| RESOLV | RESOLV +16.8% that day | −4.6% | open | open | |
| REACT | REACT +24.2% that day | −9.9% | open | open | |
| MAGIC | MAGIC +16.9% that day | −6.2% | open | open | |
| GRIFFAIN | GRIFFAIN +30.9% that day | −10.0% | open | open | |
| FORT | FORT +45.7% that day | −12.8% | open | open | |
| BAY | BAY +22.9% that day | +11.0% | open | open | |
| ANVL | ANVL +55.3% that day | −3.0% | open | open |
1 case still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Oct 8, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from pump days showed no clear edge: right 69% of 248 calls since 2022, against 51% for that side on any day (Oct 15, 2022 – Oct 6, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 5,976 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a micro-cap coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (32% against 47% over 1,583 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
A typical −3.5% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +8.9% and one in 10 beyond −12.5%.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 69% of 248 calls since 2022, against 51% for that side on any day).
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 5,976 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what pump days did from 2018 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- Did a micro-cap coin usually end lower the day after a pump day?
- In 68% of 5,976 cases from Aug 17, 2018 to Oct 6, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 32% against 47% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved −3.5% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +8.9% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −12.5% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 5,976 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 69% of 248 calls since 2022, against 51% for that side on any day).
- The −3.5% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Oct 7, 2026: SUNDOG +24.7% that day.
- Its 1-day window closes on Oct 8, 2026.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was −2.1% in 2019 (20 cases) and −5.5% in 2022 (433 cases).