Daily research · Chart patterns · written
What happens to a coin the day after a pump day?
Short answer
The middle case of 9,538 since 2017 saw a coin move −2.7% the day after a pump day. Lower was the outcome 66% of the time. The best 1 in 10 reached +8.9% or more, the worst 1 in 10 −11.3% or less. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
−2.7%
the next day, the middle case
How often
66%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+8.9%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−11.3%
or worse
Cases
9,538
2017-2026, on 1,934 days
Higher 33% of the time against 48% on ordinary days (1,915 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern9,538 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day the coin rose at least 3 times its usual daily move over the 60 days before, and at least 5%, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 9,538 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 9,538 measured cases on 1,934 separate days, from Nov 24, 2017 to Oct 6, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 7, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A pump day, a rise several times the coin's usual daily move, draws attention and late money. Traders watch whether it keeps going or gives the gain back.
That is the reasoning behind watching pump days; whether it held over our 9,538 cases since 2017 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 9,538 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 1,915 of the 1,934 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 9,538 cases fall on 1,934 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results2416 up · 4544 down
Results
as of · every past case, Nov 24, 2017 to Oct 6, 2026
Of the 9,538 cases, 2,416 ended up, 4,544 down and 2,578 sideways (within ±2.9%) a day later; the middle case −2.7%, the average day −1.3%.
ended up (2416)ended down (4544)sideways, within ±2.9% (2578)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 9,538 1,934 days | −2.7% | −0.18% | 33% | 48% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 9,464 1,928 days | −4.4% | −1.2% | 36% | 45% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 30 days | 7,380 1,773 days | −8.0% | −6.7% | 36% | 40% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −4.4% over 9,464 cases; 30 days, typical −8.0% over 7,380 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −5.5% in 2022 to +21.9% in 2017; 9 of 10 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps −0.53% over 457 cases; mid caps −0.62% over 762 cases; small caps −2.3% over 2,343 cases; micro caps −3.5% over 5,976 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 3 | +21.9% | 67% | 33% |
| 2018 | 32 | −0.39% | 42% | 57% |
| 2019 | 113 | −1.4% | 42% | 56% |
| 2020 | 318 | −2.5% | 37% | 63% |
| 2021 | 705 | −2.4% | 35% | 65% |
| 2022 | 745 | −5.5% | 25% | 74% |
| 2023 | 1,079 | −2.1% | 31% | 68% |
| 2024 | 1,451 | −2.3% | 33% | 67% |
| 2025 | 1,924 | −2.9% | 35% | 65% |
| 2026 | 3,168 | −2.4% | 34% | 66% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 457 | −0.53% | 45% | 55% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 762 | −0.62% | 46% | 54% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 2,343 | −2.3% | 35% | 65% |
| under $50M micro caps | 5,976 | −3.5% | 32% | 68% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUNDOG | SUNDOG +24.7% that day | open | open | open | |
| WELL | WELL +16.9% that day | −15.6% | open | open | |
| UOS | UOS +36.2% that day | −13.6% | open | open | |
| RESOLV | RESOLV +16.8% that day | −4.6% | open | open | |
| REACT | REACT +24.2% that day | −9.9% | open | open | |
| NMR | NMR +32.8% that day | +2.6% | open | open | |
| MAGIC | MAGIC +16.9% that day | −6.2% | open | open | |
| GRIFFAIN | GRIFFAIN +30.9% that day | −10.0% | open | open | |
| FORT | FORT +45.7% that day | −12.8% | open | open | |
| BAY | BAY +22.9% that day | +11.0% | open | open |
1 case still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Oct 8, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from pump days showed no clear edge: right 69% of 248 calls since 2022, against 51% for that side on any day (Oct 15, 2022 – Oct 6, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 9,538 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (33% against 48% over 1,915 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
A typical −2.7% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +8.9% and one in 10 beyond −11.3%.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 69% of 248 calls since 2022, against 51% for that side on any day).
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 9,538 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what pump days did from 2017 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower the day after a pump day?
- In 66% of 9,538 cases from Nov 24, 2017 to Oct 6, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 33% against 48% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved −2.7% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +8.9% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −11.3% or less.
- Is this an edge?
- Not on its own: over 9,538 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 69% of 248 calls since 2022, against 51% for that side on any day).
- The −2.7% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 7, 2026: SUNDOG +24.7% that day.
- Its 1-day window closes on Oct 8, 2026.
- Does it depend on the year?
- No. The typical move was +21.9% in 2017 (3 cases) and −5.5% in 2022 (745 cases).