Daily research · Chart patterns · written
What happens to a coin the day after a squeeze breakout?
Short answer
5,261 cases since 2018: in the middle one, a coin moved −0.47% the day after a squeeze breakout. Lower was the outcome 57% of the time. One case in 10 did better than +6.2%, one in 10 worse than −6.3%. Not tested out of sample yet.
Typical move
−0.47%
the next day, the middle case
How often
57%
it ended lower
Best 1 in 10
+6.2%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−6.3%
or worse
Cases
5,261
2018-2026, on 998 days
Higher 42% of the time against 48% on ordinary days (998 days compared): higher less often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern5,261 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a close above the 20 closes before it while their daily moves were as calm as the calmest 10% of the year before, and the move that counts is the coin's own.
Each of the 5,261 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 5,261 measured cases on 998 separate days, from Jul 17, 2018 to Oct 11, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 13, 2026.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
A break above the recent range right after the calmest stretch of the year. Quiet markets store up pressure, and traders watch which way it is released.
That is the reasoning behind watching squeeze breakouts; whether it held over our 5,261 cases since 2018 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- Every one of the 5,261 cases is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against each coin's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 998 of the 998 days had that many to compare.
- Cases on the same day count as one day: the 5,261 cases fall on 998 days, and each day's cases are averaged before anything is counted.
§ 04 · Results1848 up · 1935 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jul 17, 2018 to Oct 11, 2026
A day later, the middle case stood at −0.47% and the average day at −0.12%; 1,848 cases ended up, 1,935 down and 1,478 sideways (within ±1.3%).
ended up (1848)ended down (1935)sideways, within ±1.3% (1478)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 5,261 998 days | −0.47% | −0.16% | 42% | 48% | higher less often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 5,244 993 days | −1.2% | −1.3% | 43% | 45% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 4,418 903 days | −3.0% | −7.6% | 43% | 40% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical −1.2% over 5,244 cases; 30 days, typical −3.0% over 4,418 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −2.3% in 2018 to +0.32% in 2021; 6 of 9 years leaned the same way as the whole.
By market cap: large caps −0.16% over 321 cases; mid caps +0.54% over 435 cases; small caps −0.58% over 1,380 cases; micro caps −0.59% over 3,125 cases.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 10 | −2.3% | 36% | 64% |
| 2019 | 58 | −0.89% | 35% | 64% |
| 2020 | 153 | +0.12% | 48% | 52% |
| 2021 | 324 | +0.32% | 47% | 53% |
| 2022 | 778 | −1.6% | 37% | 62% |
| 2023 | 844 | −0.10% | 46% | 53% |
| 2024 | 355 | +0.16% | 46% | 54% |
| 2025 | 751 | −0.61% | 41% | 59% |
| 2026 | 1,988 | −0.77% | 40% | 59% |
By market cap on the day
| Coins worth | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| over $5B large caps | 321 | −0.16% | 46% | 54% |
| $500M to $5B mid caps | 435 | +0.54% | 54% | 46% |
| $50M to $500M small caps | 1,380 | −0.58% | 44% | 56% |
| under $50M micro caps | 3,125 | −0.59% | 42% | 57% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DODO | DODO +4.4% that day | open | open | open | |
| DKA | DKA +12.0% that day | −11.7% | open | open | |
| DAO | DAO +1.0% that day | −1.1% | open | open | |
| CWEB | CWEB +17.4% that day | +19.4% | open | open | |
| PDDON | PDDON +3.3% that day | +0.12% | open | open | |
| JCT | JCT +62.5% that day | +0.58% | open | open | |
| MYRO | MYRO +4.0% that day | −6.7% | open | open | |
| GNO | GNO +0.1% that day | −0.76% | open | open | |
| ALPINE | ALPINE +1.9% that day | −0.54% | open | open | |
| ZEUS | ZEUS +51.5% that day | +76.3% | +149.1% | open |
1 case still open: the 1-day window of the newest closes on Oct 13, 2026.
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of samplenot tested out of sample yet
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Not tested out of sample yet: the lab has not scored calls made from squeeze breakouts at 1 day, so the 5,261 cases above describe the past and are not a prediction.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data a coin ended higher less often than on ordinary days (42% against 48% over 998 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
A typical −0.47% hides a wide spread: one case in 10 was beyond +6.2% and one in 10 beyond −6.3%.
Calls made from squeeze breakouts have not been tested out of sample yet, so read these 5,261 cases as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 5,261 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what squeeze breakouts did from 2018 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did a coin end lower the day after a squeeze breakout?
- In 57% of 5,261 cases from Jul 17, 2018 to Oct 11, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 42% against 48% on each coin's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved −0.47% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +6.2% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −6.3% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 5,261 cases it shows higher less often than on ordinary days, and it has not been tested out of sample yet.
- The −0.47% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When was the latest case?
- The latest was on Oct 12, 2026: DODO +4.4% that day.
- Its 1-day window closes on Oct 13, 2026.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +0.32% in 2021 (324 cases) and −2.3% in 2018 (10 cases).