Daily research · One coin, one cause · written
What does IOTA do the day after Bitcoin falls 3% or more?
Short answer
The middle case of 331 since 2018 saw IOTA move +1.3% the day after Bitcoin falls 3% or more. 62% of the cases ended higher. One case in 10 did better than +7.3%, one in 10 worse than −6.3%. Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge.
Typical move
+1.3%
the next day, the middle case
How often
62%
it ended higher
Best 1 in 10
+7.3%
or better
Worst 1 in 10
−6.3%
or worse
Cases
331
2018-2026, on 331 days
Higher 61% of the time against 50% on ordinary days (317 days compared): higher more often than on ordinary days.
Share on Xcopy link§ 01 · The pattern331 cases
The pattern, exactly
as of · the rule, the data, the dates
A case is a day Bitcoin closed 3% or more below the day before (UTC daily closes), and the move that counts is IOTA's.
Each of the 331 moves is measured from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later.
In our data that gives 331 measured cases on 331 separate days, from Jun 10, 2018 to Sep 15, 2026; the numbers were written on Oct 7, 2026.
It is a proven driver of IOTA in the lab: past a 10% false-discovery cut over every test of its night, on 12 cases or more, with both halves of the history on the same side.
§ 02 · Why it might work
Why it might work
as of · the idea traders have in mind, not a promise
When Bitcoin drops this far in a day, leveraged positions across the market get closed at once, and forced exits tend to overshoot. One reason traders watch the next days is the idea that part of the overshoot snaps back; the other view is that a drop this size can be the start of a longer slide.
That is the reasoning behind watching Bitcoin's 3% drops; whether it held over our 331 cases since 2018 is what the next sections measure.
§ 03 · How we tested it
How we tested it
as of · our own closes, against ordinary days
- We measured each of the 331 cases from the close of the day it happened to the close 1 day later, on our own daily closes (UTC).
- Each case is set against IOTA's own ordinary days (1-day moves starting in the 365 days before it, at least 90 of them), and 317 of the 331 days had that many to compare.
- No two cases share a day, so each of the 331 days counts once.
- Out of sample: each calendar quarter, the lab re-ran its coin-by-coin search on the data before that quarter only, then scored every call the proven drivers of this kind made in the quarter after, against how often the same side won on any day of the same coin's quarter.
§ 04 · Results155 up · 93 down
Results
as of · every past case, Jun 10, 2018 to Sep 15, 2026
A day later, the middle case stood at +1.3% and the average day at +0.89%; 155 cases ended up, 93 down and 83 sideways (within ±1.7%).
ended up (155)ended down (93)sideways, within ±1.7% (83)each line one real case · past cases, not a projection
1, 7 and 30 days against ordinary days
| After | Cases | Typical move | Typical, ordinary days | Higher | Higher, ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day this post | 331 | +1.3% | +0.11% | 61% | 50% | higher more often than on ordinary days |
| 7 days | 188 | +0.68% | −0.73% | 53% | 48% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
| 30 days | 74 | −0.66% | −5.0% | 48% | 42% | no clear edge over ordinary days |
At the other horizons: 7 days, typical +0.68% over 188 cases; 30 days, typical −0.66% over 74 cases.
By year, the typical move ranged from −1.6% in 2026 to +2.8% in 2018; 7 of 9 years leaned the same way as the whole.
Year by year
| Year | Cases | Typical move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 34 | +2.8% | 65% | 35% |
| 2019 | 44 | +1.1% | 59% | 41% |
| 2020 | 35 | +2.6% | 71% | 26% |
| 2021 | 66 | +2.6% | 68% | 32% |
| 2022 | 48 | +1.7% | 67% | 33% |
| 2023 | 22 | +1.3% | 73% | 27% |
| 2024 | 38 | −0.03% | 47% | 50% |
| 2025 | 27 | +0.31% | 52% | 44% |
| 2026 | 17 | −1.6% | 35% | 59% |
The latest 10 cases
| Day | Coin | What happened | 1 day | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOTA | Bitcoin −3.3% that day | +1.0% | +26.3% | open | |
| IOTA | Bitcoin −4.4% that day | +1.1% | +4.7% | −13.9% | |
| IOTA | Bitcoin −3.9% that day | −5.2% | −11.9% | −21.6% | |
| IOTA | Bitcoin −6.5% that day | −4.9% | −14.5% | −26.4% | |
| IOTA | Bitcoin −3.1% that day | −8.1% | −18.4% | −34.8% | |
| IOTA | Bitcoin −3.2% that day | +3.5% | +3.5% | +14.7% | |
| IOTA | Bitcoin −3.5% that day | 0.00% | +16.4% | +5.3% | |
| IOTA | Bitcoin −3.5% that day | −4.2% | +3.1% | +0.52% | |
| IOTA | Bitcoin −3.6% that day | −1.6% | −5.5% | −5.2% | |
| IOTA | Bitcoin −3.9% that day | −2.2% | −1.7% | −8.6% |
Source: our daily closes and our dated events, measured on .
§ 05 · Out of sampleno clear edge out of sample
Out of sample
as of · calls like it, scored on data they never saw
Out of sample, calls made from Bitcoin's 3% drops showed no clear edge: right 52% of 7,455 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day (Aug 2, 2020 – Sep 15, 2026).
The bar to earn a side: right more often than that side won on any day, on 100+ scored calls over 60+ separate days, with an average move its way above 0%; the share above is that record's, not the in-sample rate of the 331 cases here.
§ 06 · Verdict
Verdict
as of · plain, with the caveats
In our data IOTA ended higher more often than on ordinary days (61% against 50% over 317 days), and both halves of the history lean the same way.
The typical move of +1.3% is small next to the spread between the best and worst 1 in 10 (−6.3% to +7.3%): single cases went either way by far more.
Out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 52% of 7,455 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day).
Our price history holds today's coins: coins that died before we began collecting are missing from these 331 cases, which flatters the older years.
Markets change, so what Bitcoin's 3% drops did from 2018 to 2026 can stop working.
§ 07 · Questions
Questions
as of · answered from the numbers above
- How often did IOTA end higher the day after Bitcoin falls 3% or more?
- In 62% of 331 cases from Jun 10, 2018 to Sep 15, 2026.
- Measured the scoreboard's way, day by day, the share higher was 61% against 50% on IOTA's own ordinary days.
- How big was the move the next day?
- The middle case moved +1.3% the next day.
- The best 1 in 10 reached +7.3% or more and the worst 1 in 10 −6.3% or less.
- Can you trade on this?
- Not on its own: over 331 cases it shows higher more often than on ordinary days, and out of sample, calls like it showed no clear edge (right 52% of 7,455 calls since 2020, against 49% for that side on any day).
- The +1.3% typical move is the past's, and a past pattern can stop working.
- When did it last happen?
- The latest was on Sep 15, 2026: Bitcoin −3.3% that day.
- A day later the move was +1.0%.
- Did it work the same every year?
- No. The typical move was +2.8% in 2018 (34 cases) and −1.6% in 2026 (17 cases).