How often it went up51 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Wikipedia attention spikes with BTC below its 50-day average: 51 of the 73 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 19 of those 51 closed higher — a base rate of 37%, with a 90% range of 27% to 49%, counted as of Nov 2, 2026.
- By day 30, 16 of the 51 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (31%).
- The typical day-30 move was −3.8%, the best +134.8% and the worst −54.8%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −5.1% vs BTC and beat it in 31.4% of 51 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 29% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- yesterday · TORN Tornado Cash 30 days lands
- yesterday · USD1 USD1 30 days lands
- 2 days ago · BUSD BUSD 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled Wikipedia attention spike can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Wikipedia attention spikes →
Every past case73 cases
Every past Wikipedia attention spike behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 73 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | in 29 days | in 29 days | not measured yet | |
| USD1 (USD1) | — | — | in 29 days | in 29 days | not measured yet | |
| BUSD (BUSD) | — | — | in 28 days | in 28 days | not measured yet | |
| OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) | — | +6.1% | −16.2% | −19.4% | up next day | |
| USD1 (USD1) | — | −0.0% | +0.0% | −3.2% | sideways next day | |
| USD1 (USD1) | — | +0.0% | −0.1% | +2.6% | sideways next day | |
| Zcash (ZEC) | — | +26.7% | +33.5% | +29.4% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.4% | −3.0% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| USD1 (USD1) | — | +0.0% | −0.2% | +9.8% | sideways next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | — | +0.2% | −21.6% | +6.0% | sideways next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Terra (LUNA) | — | −20.3% | −46.5% | −52.2% | down next day | |
| USD1 (USD1) | — | +0.0% | 0.0% | +5.2% | sideways next day | |
| Zcash (ZEC) | — | −13.1% | −27.9% | −18.5% | down next day | |
| BUSD (BUSD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) | — | −7.5% | +10.6% | +24.1% | down next day | |
| Worldcoin (WLD) | — | −14.3% | −54.8% | −55.9% | down next day | |
| Gemini Dollar (GUSD) | — | +0.0% | −0.1% | −9.6% | sideways next day | |
| USD1 (USD1) | — | −0.1% | −0.0% | −9.9% | sideways next day | |
| Litecoin (LTC) | — | −1.5% | +0.4% | −0.4% | down next day | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| FTX Token (FTT) | — | −17.1% | −35.8% | −24.3% | down next day | |
| USD1 (USD1) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Cardano (ADA) | — | +13.6% | −24.1% | −20.6% | up next day | |
| XRP (XRP) | — | +4.7% | −13.5% | −10.0% | up next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Terra (LUNA) | — | −5.3% | −32.4% | −38.8% | down next day | |
| Cardano (ADA) | — | +1.2% | +0.2% | −10.3% | up next day | |
| Monero (XMR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BUSD (BUSD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | −2.7% | −14.4% | −3.3% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.6% | +6.2% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Terra (LUNA) | — | +0.4% | +11.3% | −15.9% | sideways next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| FTX Token (FTT) | — | −3.5% | +6.8% | −22.5% | down next day | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| FTX Token (FTT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BUSD (BUSD) | — | +0.0% | +0.0% | −14.9% | sideways next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| FTX Token (FTT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| FTX Token (FTT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| FTX Token (FTT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BUSD (BUSD) | — | −0.0% | −0.2% | −7.8% | sideways next day | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | −0.3% | −15.2% | −0.1% | sideways next day | |
| Decentraland (MANA) | — | +0.4% | −29.3% | −13.6% | sideways next day | |
| Terra (LUNA) | — | −1.0% | −2.2% | −10.2% | sideways next day | |
| Ethereum Classic (ETC) | — | −13.4% | −30.1% | −28.8% | down next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | −6.9% | −7.1% | −5.9% | down next day | |
| Terra (LUNA) | — | +12.9% | −3.8% | −1.6% | up next day | |
| Tezos (XTZ) | — | +4.8% | −4.8% | +5.6% | up next day | |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | — | −4.9% | −12.4% | +16.2% | down next day | |
| Dai (DAI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stable (STABLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tezos (XTZ) | — | −10.7% | −30.4% | −24.0% | down next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Tezos (XTZ) | — | −6.5% | −12.9% | −0.9% | down next day | |
| Litecoin (LTC) | — | −0.9% | +28.5% | −18.8% | sideways next day | |
| Tezos (XTZ) | — | +8.2% | +0.6% | −1.5% | up next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | −12.1% | −36.7% | −18.0% | down next day | |
| Nano (XNO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | — | +5.5% | −43.2% | −5.1% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Classic (ETC) | — | +27.5% | −32.8% | +5.3% | up next day | |
| Nano (XNO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethereum Classic (ETC) | — | −11.4% | +134.8% | +163.4% | down next day | |
| Litecoin (LTC) | — | −13.1% | −2.3% | +26.3% | down next day | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Stellar (XLM) | — | −38.9% | −8.2% | +4.9% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin Cash (BCH) | — | +8.8% | +85.9% | +55.6% | up next day | |
| 2019 | ||||||
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | −1.7% | +27.2% | +10.9% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Classic (ETC) | — | −10.7% | −16.9% | −9.3% | down next day | |
| 2018 | ||||||
| Stable (STABLE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bitcoin Cash (BCH) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethereum Classic (ETC) | — | −6.1% | −19.9% | −19.1% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Classic (ETC) | — | −0.2% | +18.1% | +18.8% | sideways next day | |
| Litecoin (LTC) | — | −1.6% | −30.3% | −18.5% | down next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | −3.1% | +10.8% | +11.4% | down next day | |
| EOS (EOS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 51 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 37% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 19 of the 51 measured past cases of wikipedia attention spikes with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Nov 2, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 27% to 49% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 51.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 29% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 73 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every Wikipedia attention spike with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.