How often it went up312 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Governance votes of L1 and L2 tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 312 of the 319 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 177 of those 312 closed higher — a base rate of 57%, with a 90% range of 52% to 61%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- By day 30, 140 of the 312 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (45%).
- The typical day-30 move was −3.7%, the best +139.3% and the worst −42.1%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −7.0% vs BTC and beat it in 30.8% of 312 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 57% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 57% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled governance vote can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Governance votes of L1 and L2 tokens →
Every past case319 cases
Every past governance vote behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 319 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +31.5% | +7.8% | +0.9% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −5.4% | +139.3% | +132.5% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −7.8% | +9.9% | −6.7% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +11.3% | −37.6% | −12.4% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +10.4% | +35.1% | +21.6% | up next day | |
| Starknet (STRK) | — | +4.2% | +22.8% | +4.8% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +3.4% | −29.5% | −22.3% | up next day | |
| Starknet (STRK) | — | +27.2% | −13.0% | −7.7% | up next day | |
| Mantle (MNT) | — | −2.9% | −1.7% | +6.3% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +6.8% | −41.2% | −38.2% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +11.5% | +25.5% | +29.7% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −9.1% | +20.2% | +27.8% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +4.2% | +34.4% | +38.5% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +2.7% | +11.8% | +12.9% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +0.9% | +17.8% | +15.0% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −4.5% | +11.4% | +7.2% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −6.8% | +6.0% | +2.6% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −1.0% | +45.3% | +35.4% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −6.7% | +51.3% | +39.0% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −3.1% | +17.6% | +5.2% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −12.3% | +0.6% | −7.5% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −7.6% | −8.6% | −12.0% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −18.6% | −24.1% | −23.6% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −8.6% | −37.6% | −28.0% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +21.8% | +11.9% | +3.1% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.9% | +54.4% | +43.3% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −0.6% | +49.6% | +39.7% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −8.2% | −26.5% | −16.5% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +5.9% | −31.0% | −13.9% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −0.2% | −32.0% | −25.1% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +7.0% | −20.9% | −12.4% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +1.4% | −18.4% | −14.5% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +3.0% | −39.8% | −36.9% | up next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +17.6% | +8.7% | −0.3% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +28.2% | +24.0% | +14.9% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −7.6% | −10.9% | −15.3% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.4% | −23.3% | −16.5% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −0.4% | −21.6% | −16.1% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +3.4% | −25.6% | −19.1% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +5.6% | −16.8% | −18.3% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +8.9% | +41.7% | +40.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +5.2% | +61.9% | +66.7% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +6.3% | −18.7% | −16.7% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −3.9% | −19.8% | −19.2% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +20.4% | +11.5% | +8.3% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +6.8% | +133.0% | +113.4% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +6.5% | +54.1% | +20.8% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +7.8% | +112.1% | +80.0% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −8.3% | +53.6% | +10.1% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −9.4% | +52.8% | +6.3% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −3.9% | −1.3% | −37.9% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +1.1% | +30.1% | −3.9% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +6.3% | −5.1% | −19.5% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +11.6% | −14.1% | −20.3% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +1.0% | −17.4% | −21.2% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −4.0% | −14.3% | −21.9% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +5.7% | −0.1% | −6.7% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +10.4% | +10.0% | +0.3% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.8% | +5.7% | −4.0% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +9.1% | +7.0% | −3.7% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +1.1% | +0.9% | −7.3% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +10.7% | +6.8% | +1.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.9% | +19.3% | +14.0% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −8.2% | −21.8% | −13.1% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −3.6% | −24.2% | −13.6% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +11.0% | +24.7% | +35.4% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +6.6% | +27.2% | +40.7% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +3.2% | −14.4% | −12.0% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +9.0% | +46.0% | +48.4% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +8.7% | +52.3% | +54.2% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −4.4% | +44.4% | +55.0% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −0.4% | −31.1% | −20.8% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.4% | +17.2% | +28.1% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.4% | +13.0% | +21.7% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +3.6% | −27.7% | −20.5% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −14.0% | −19.2% | −15.3% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.6% | +24.4% | +26.4% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.6% | +24.7% | +33.6% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −6.3% | −28.0% | −14.8% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −0.1% | −25.5% | −11.5% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −11.1% | −40.2% | −19.1% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −9.4% | −23.7% | −2.6% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −11.1% | −38.3% | −20.2% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −0.6% | −22.4% | −2.7% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −0.1% | −18.3% | −7.1% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.9% | −12.1% | −3.8% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −0.7% | −5.3% | +1.6% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +0.5% | −28.9% | −20.7% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +1.2% | −5.3% | +2.9% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −6.0% | −34.1% | −22.4% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −7.3% | −33.1% | −22.0% | down next day | |
| Mantle (MNT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +0.6% | −31.9% | −20.8% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +7.4% | −17.5% | −10.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +5.3% | −13.5% | −6.4% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −3.7% | −13.4% | −4.2% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +13.8% | +2.3% | +4.3% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +11.1% | −7.0% | −4.4% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −3.4% | −3.8% | −3.0% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +3.9% | −2.4% | −9.7% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −29.8% | −29.4% | −17.2% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +9.0% | −25.8% | −16.3% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +8.1% | −22.7% | −15.8% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +1.9% | −22.6% | −16.1% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +1.1% | −35.6% | −27.1% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.7% | −29.9% | −21.3% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −3.1% | −29.4% | −18.6% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −4.0% | −36.8% | −29.1% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +4.8% | −27.3% | −23.0% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −5.3% | −29.4% | −28.5% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −1.6% | −26.2% | −25.3% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +3.7% | −31.1% | −34.1% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +12.7% | −21.6% | −24.7% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.7% | −30.8% | −24.7% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −6.4% | −36.3% | −25.9% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.9% | −27.0% | −24.7% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −14.8% | −36.9% | −28.9% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −9.5% | −42.1% | −29.6% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +1.5% | −31.9% | −29.0% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +6.7% | +1.3% | −1.1% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +4.1% | −3.7% | −4.9% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −1.9% | −8.3% | −12.1% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +3.9% | −27.6% | −31.9% | up next day | |
| Mantle (MNT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −6.1% | +1.6% | −2.9% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +5.8% | +18.7% | +7.3% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +1.6% | +24.4% | −5.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +4.4% | +24.6% | −9.7% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +1.6% | +29.3% | −6.4% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +6.0% | +34.2% | −3.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +10.0% | +35.8% | +4.7% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.5% | +16.5% | −3.4% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.1% | +30.6% | +0.9% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +1.8% | +37.6% | +5.8% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −4.8% | −16.8% | −42.9% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +1.2% | −7.8% | −47.6% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +5.4% | +8.9% | −42.4% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.7% | +53.2% | +3.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −0.4% | +56.1% | +3.2% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +5.2% | +11.0% | −41.2% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.8% | +49.0% | −3.3% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +1.8% | +16.5% | −41.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −3.1% | +32.9% | −25.0% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.0% | +34.2% | −12.3% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −4.9% | +4.8% | −36.3% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −8.3% | +13.0% | −28.2% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.1% | +14.5% | −34.0% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −3.4% | −1.8% | −23.8% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −0.4% | −9.4% | −31.4% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −3.5% | −11.8% | −28.5% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −3.3% | −20.4% | −24.6% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −3.8% | −17.5% | −19.8% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +22.3% | +2.3% | +5.8% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −0.4% | −15.0% | −13.0% | sideways next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.2% | −5.1% | +0.1% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −2.9% | +84.3% | +80.9% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −5.2% | −1.1% | −3.2% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −7.2% | +83.5% | +83.5% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +14.2% | +11.9% | +11.9% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.4% | +19.7% | +7.3% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −5.4% | +9.3% | +2.7% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −7.1% | −2.2% | −7.7% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −0.9% | +56.2% | +49.9% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −1.5% | −0.5% | −6.8% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | 0.0% | −3.8% | −5.3% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −0.0% | +4.3% | +4.1% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −0.5% | +74.5% | +67.3% | sideways next day | |
| Mantle (MNT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −4.0% | +5.8% | −8.1% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +6.0% | +67.7% | +53.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +6.0% | +10.6% | −1.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.7% | +3.7% | −11.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +5.7% | +12.7% | −4.4% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −7.7% | +9.4% | −7.5% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +0.2% | +5.5% | −11.0% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.1% | +12.0% | −4.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −3.2% | +9.9% | −4.5% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +2.5% | +6.1% | −11.8% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.7% | +15.2% | −2.7% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −4.2% | −4.4% | −16.2% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −0.4% | −8.6% | −19.2% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −5.9% | −4.3% | −23.7% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −3.8% | −2.8% | −22.1% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +7.3% | +4.2% | −18.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.4% | +2.1% | −22.7% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −0.7% | −2.8% | −27.8% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +9.4% | +8.1% | −16.9% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +11.3% | +9.6% | −16.1% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.1% | +11.7% | −2.7% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +4.8% | +9.4% | −2.2% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +7.8% | +4.3% | −5.1% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −9.0% | +15.7% | +6.1% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +5.3% | +20.4% | −4.4% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +9.6% | +43.2% | +13.1% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +6.2% | +42.0% | +12.9% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.1% | +49.3% | +9.9% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.8% | +41.3% | +8.9% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.4% | +45.9% | +10.2% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −0.1% | +43.7% | +5.2% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −0.0% | +59.3% | +26.2% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −5.2% | +46.0% | +19.4% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −0.3% | +33.1% | +5.4% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −5.3% | +17.1% | −9.5% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.8% | +38.5% | +11.9% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −3.6% | +33.0% | +5.9% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −6.6% | +7.3% | −19.2% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +9.3% | +26.7% | −1.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.8% | +28.6% | +0.8% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +8.2% | +5.5% | −1.8% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +0.8% | −18.3% | −7.6% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.6% | −19.5% | −8.8% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.0% | −23.4% | −10.9% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −2.8% | −18.4% | −6.3% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.7% | −21.1% | −8.3% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −4.9% | −19.6% | −16.0% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −5.3% | −19.2% | −16.3% | down next day | |
| Mantle (MNT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −0.2% | −17.1% | −10.3% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +8.2% | +3.7% | +6.9% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −5.8% | −10.0% | −8.3% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −3.9% | −13.1% | −9.4% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +4.8% | −6.1% | −3.4% | up next day | |
| Mantle (MNT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +1.8% | +2.3% | +7.0% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.2% | −13.6% | −8.9% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +7.1% | −3.7% | −0.9% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.2% | −7.3% | −3.3% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +8.2% | +12.5% | +16.3% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −1.6% | +2.9% | +6.4% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −5.9% | +14.7% | +18.2% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +10.7% | +22.8% | +27.0% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.7% | +30.0% | +29.3% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.8% | +30.4% | +31.1% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −1.4% | −11.3% | −5.3% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.5% | −8.0% | −3.0% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −4.0% | −7.2% | −2.0% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.6% | −3.4% | +1.4% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +1.3% | −9.2% | −4.7% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −7.5% | −28.2% | −19.3% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −8.8% | −20.0% | −11.1% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −1.3% | −29.3% | −19.8% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −1.7% | −22.1% | −12.5% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −1.6% | −23.7% | −12.9% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −0.2% | −30.0% | −19.2% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +1.1% | −23.9% | −13.0% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.7% | −20.1% | −8.8% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.8% | −15.1% | −12.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.7% | −17.6% | −16.8% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −5.3% | −14.8% | −16.2% | down next day | |
| Mantle (MNT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +5.5% | −3.8% | −8.6% | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +2.7% | +11.8% | +8.7% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +4.7% | −1.8% | −4.8% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −1.6% | −7.1% | −5.7% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.9% | −1.5% | −5.8% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +1.8% | −1.5% | −4.6% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +1.0% | +2.1% | −5.4% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +4.4% | +2.3% | −6.4% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.1% | 0.0% | −3.1% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.8% | −5.6% | −7.7% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.4% | −12.4% | −9.4% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −0.5% | −6.8% | −9.7% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.2% | +5.4% | −7.5% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +9.1% | +11.5% | −13.2% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.8% | +6.8% | −19.1% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +8.8% | +8.5% | −27.3% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.8% | −4.5% | −27.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −5.5% | −11.3% | −31.7% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.2% | −11.8% | −29.5% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.7% | −14.5% | −31.5% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −6.5% | −14.8% | −31.7% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −4.0% | −16.1% | −29.7% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −7.6% | −16.2% | −30.1% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.6% | −16.6% | −28.9% | down next day | |
| Mantle (MNT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +1.1% | −13.2% | −27.3% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +4.3% | −11.9% | −24.7% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +8.6% | −9.2% | −24.0% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +7.4% | −4.5% | −16.0% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.1% | −6.6% | −7.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −9.5% | −23.2% | −12.3% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.4% | −18.4% | −7.9% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.5% | −16.3% | −11.0% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.8% | −15.1% | −10.6% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.3% | −14.7% | −8.9% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.5% | −8.0% | −9.8% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.5% | +3.9% | −3.4% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.9% | +10.8% | −4.4% | up next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +0.5% | +60.8% | +44.5% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +6.1% | +9.5% | +3.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +11.4% | +15.9% | +6.6% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +10.7% | +23.7% | +1.8% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +4.4% | +46.7% | +12.6% | up next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −8.7% | −31.9% | −12.1% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +17.5% | −22.0% | −5.8% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −0.6% | −22.0% | −5.4% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.4% | −22.2% | −5.4% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +4.9% | −24.4% | −5.4% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.7% | −26.0% | −5.2% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −3.1% | −24.9% | −7.4% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.8% | −14.8% | −6.0% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.2% | −16.6% | −6.9% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +8.5% | −13.9% | +5.0% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.3% | −15.6% | +2.5% | up next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +17.2% | −24.7% | −11.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +1.5% | −11.2% | +5.0% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +2.2% | −10.2% | +4.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +23.9% | +2.1% | +6.9% | up next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +7.6% | +69.3% | +80.3% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −4.1% | −30.9% | −13.1% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −8.5% | −37.4% | −16.5% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +15.0% | −29.3% | −13.8% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +9.9% | +15.7% | +22.0% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.0% | +50.8% | +41.7% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −9.3% | +70.7% | +66.5% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −11.1% | −7.0% | −0.8% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −4.6% | −36.6% | −24.5% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.2% | −34.5% | −24.5% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +6.0% | −26.5% | −25.4% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 312 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 57% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 177 of the 312 measured past cases of governance votes of L1 and L2 tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 52% to 61% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 312.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 57% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 57% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 319 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every governance vote with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.