PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
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Pattern · governance votes · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-25

Governance votes of small-cap tokens: all 276 measured cases

governance vote size · smallheld up on recent cases 300 cases on record last 5 cases: 4 up

Explained and tested in our research: What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a governance vote?

higher the next day

52%

144 of 276 past cases

52% of past cases were higher (90% range 47-57%)

90% range 47%–57%

higher after 30 days

45%

124 of 275 cases measured after 30 days

45% of past cases were higher (90% range 40-50%)

90% range 40%–50% · typical move −4.4%

typical next day
+0.2%
typical after 30 days
−4.4%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
−6.4%
best after 30 days
+374.4%
worst after 30 days
−68.9%
30 days: up · sideways · down
103 · 35 · 137

recent-cases check · held up: 51% → 54% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

VOTEall governance votes against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
0−3…+3
7 days
0−3…+3
30 days
+2−2…+5

No clear edge 1, 7 or 30 days later: no 95% range clears the same coins' ordinary days with both halves of history agreeing (1,308 cases on 893 separate days). Coin by coin, it is a likely driver on 1 coin.

Every past governance vote, 30 days on 275 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 87 rose · ▼ 118 fell · ◆ 70 sideways (±9.7% over 30 days)

Each line is one past governance vote: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · 80 of the 275 cases measured that far, evenly through their dates · past cases, not a projection

Governance votes of small-cap tokens: 276 of the 300 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 144 of those 276 closed higher — a base rate of 52%, with a 90% range of 47% to 57%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up276 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

Governance votes of small-cap tokens: 276 of the 300 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 144 of those 276 closed higher — a base rate of 52%, with a 90% range of 47% to 57%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.

  • By day 30, 124 of the 275 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (45%).
  • The typical day-30 move was −4.4%, the best +374.4% and the worst −68.9%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −6.4% vs BTC and beat it in 36.7% of 275 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 51% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 54% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD1 scheduled

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running

  • 3 days ago · STRK Starknet next day −13.7% · 30 days lands

1 scheduled governance vote meets every condition of this pattern. Each one is dated, and its move is measured from that day. A narrower pattern that also fits gives it its odds.

DateTokenEventSizeWhenIts odds come from
Ethereum Name Service (ENS)[7.2] [Social] Funding Request: ENS Meta-Governance Working Group Term 7 (Oct. Window)—tomorrowGovernance votes of small-cap tokens outside the big categories

Every past case300 cases

Every past governance vote behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 300 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

300 past cases of governance votes of small-cap tokens, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2026
Starknet (STRK) — −13.7% in 27 days in 27 days down next day
Starknet (STRK) — +4.2% +22.8% +4.8% up next day
GMX (GMX) — +11.5% +0.6% −5.8% up next day
2025
Starknet (STRK) — +2.5% +2.9% −6.7% up next day
Starknet (STRK) — +27.2% −13.0% −7.7% up next day
GMX (GMX) — −0.4% +11.6% +6.2% sideways next day
GMX (GMX) — −8.0% −1.2% −0.4% down next day
GMX (GMX) — −5.6% +9.9% +16.7% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −1.3% +3.9% −6.0% down next day
GMX (GMX) — −8.4% −0.7% −14.3% down next day
GMX (GMX) — −3.8% +3.6% −11.4% down next day
GMX (GMX) — +2.7% +12.2% −11.0% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +2.9% +16.0% −0.2% up next day
The Sandbox (SAND) — −5.0% +9.4% −4.4% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −6.1% −15.0% −13.0% down next day
The Sandbox (SAND) — −0.2% −9.7% −11.8% sideways next day
GMX (GMX) — +4.9% +2.4% +1.1% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +2.2% −20.9% −7.6% up next day
GMX (GMX) — +0.2% −27.7% −13.8% sideways next day
The Sandbox (SAND) — −7.6% −23.5% −12.3% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +8.8% −31.6% −14.6% up next day
GMX (GMX) — +7.9% −7.5% +9.2% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +4.6% −37.2% −34.3% up next day
GMX (GMX) — +2.1% −18.1% −19.5% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +10.4% −27.2% −33.6% up next day
2024
The Sandbox (SAND) — −13.2% −13.7% −20.0% down next day
BIO Protocol (BIO) — — — — not measured yet
ApeCoin (APE) — −7.9% −16.0% −20.4% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −4.8% −30.7% −30.3% down next day
GMX (GMX) — −3.0% −6.6% −8.1% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +6.8% −0.8% −4.0% up next day
GMX (GMX) — +4.7% +41.7% +22.1% up next day
GMX (GMX) — −5.6% +12.2% −24.4% down next day
GMX (GMX) — +4.8% +25.4% −6.8% up next day
GMX (GMX) — +0.2% +16.5% −15.6% sideways next day
GMX (GMX) — −4.4% +15.7% −7.4% down next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) — +3.7% −4.0% −17.2% up next day
GMX (GMX) — +5.9% +0.3% −9.3% up next day
GMX (GMX) — 0.0% +1.4% −13.0% sideways next day
The Sandbox (SAND) — +0.8% +4.5% −3.5% sideways next day
GMX (GMX) — −3.1% −13.4% −21.4% down next day
The Sandbox (SAND) — +5.5% +4.1% −3.0% up next day
GMX (GMX) — +4.6% +5.9% +12.2% up next day
GMX (GMX) — −3.2% −7.4% +5.1% down next day
GMX (GMX) — +0.4% −0.8% +1.6% sideways next day
GMX (GMX) — +0.1% +2.6% +4.5% sideways next day
The Sandbox (SAND) — −4.4% −6.4% −3.5% down next day
GMX (GMX) — +0.9% −10.4% −1.0% sideways next day
The Sandbox (SAND) — +0.6% −10.9% −15.7% sideways next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +2.8% −8.2% −11.5% up next day
The Sandbox (SAND) — −7.9% −23.0% −9.7% down next day
The Sandbox (SAND) — 0.0% −20.6% −6.6% sideways next day
GMX (GMX) — +9.5% −19.5% −9.6% up next day
GMX (GMX) — +8.7% −10.9% +0.3% up next day
GMX (GMX) — −1.4% −10.6% +0.2% down next day
GMX (GMX) — +5.9% −10.1% −3.0% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +3.0% −13.9% −13.9% up next day
Floki Inu (FLOKI) — +8.9% +5.9% −1.3% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −2.8% +50.6% +37.4% down next day
GMX (GMX) — +10.8% +68.1% +56.8% up next day
Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) — — — — not measured yet
Lido DAO (LDO) — −2.8% +21.0% +13.3% down next day
Safe (SAFE) — — — — not measured yet
GMX (GMX) — +15.4% +13.4% +17.1% up next day
GMX (GMX) — −33.0% −17.2% −5.1% down next day
Floki Inu (FLOKI) — −3.5% −15.1% −3.1% down next day
GMX (GMX) — −0.9% −35.8% −32.7% sideways next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −1.0% −26.2% −23.0% sideways next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −2.8% −31.6% −27.3% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +5.7% −19.2% −14.9% up next day
Safe (SAFE) — — — — not measured yet
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −14.4% −40.9% −30.5% down next day
Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) — — — — not measured yet
Floki Inu (FLOKI) — +67.0% +166.3% +154.7% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +14.6% +6.4% −5.1% up next day
GMX (GMX) — −0.9% −12.5% −42.4% sideways next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — +3.1% +5.5% −30.2% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +8.6% +32.4% +6.3% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +2.0% +62.7% +8.7% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −7.1% +48.4% +1.9% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +10.9% +14.9% −12.3% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +0.6% +24.8% −1.4% sideways next day
GMX (GMX) — −0.3% −25.5% −23.0% sideways next day
2023
ApeCoin (APE) — −6.0% −20.3% −17.3% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +0.0% +19.1% +25.9% sideways next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +6.0% −14.0% −9.5% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −2.8% +162.0% +165.0% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −7.9% −19.7% −19.7% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −7.6% +45.2% +45.3% down next day
GMX (GMX) — −10.5% +2.4% −4.1% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +8.5% −13.3% −13.8% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +1.5% +4.6% −6.8% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +2.8% +18.2% +1.4% up next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) — −3.4% −5.5% −19.9% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −6.8% +19.1% +7.4% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +9.9% +5.9% −12.1% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −0.7% −0.5% −12.3% sideways next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — +2.2% +12.4% −12.4% up next day
Floki Inu (FLOKI) — +2.7% +9.2% −5.2% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +2.4% +29.0% +17.6% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — 0.0% +20.6% +9.3% sideways next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −3.9% +30.7% +19.0% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −1.5% +27.9% +18.4% down next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −0.8% +9.7% −1.5% sideways next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −1.7% +20.8% −8.3% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +0.6% +37.5% −0.6% sideways next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −1.5% +28.2% +2.0% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −4.3% +22.6% −3.6% down next day
GMX (GMX) — +9.9% +16.8% −11.3% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +8.3% +22.8% −6.4% up next day
GMX (GMX) — +1.7% +19.2% −8.4% up next day
Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) — — — — not measured yet
Lido DAO (LDO) — +1.0% +15.9% +3.0% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −0.1% −0.6% −10.9% sideways next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +4.3% −1.2% −7.9% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −3.1% −8.4% −10.8% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +3.0% +7.5% +5.1% up next day
Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) — — — — not measured yet
ApeCoin (APE) — −0.2% −17.6% −26.2% sideways next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −5.6% −15.7% −14.4% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −3.5% −25.0% −25.5% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −9.7% −36.0% −28.4% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +4.0% −28.0% −15.6% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −1.5% −18.8% −6.4% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +0.7% −22.6% −11.2% sideways next day
GMX (GMX) — −8.0% −35.6% −24.4% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −1.2% −29.0% −17.6% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +0.1% −17.0% −5.7% sideways next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +5.4% −21.6% −8.8% up next day
GMX (GMX) — −1.5% −32.7% −20.0% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +8.7% +7.2% +10.4% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −8.2% −11.0% −6.3% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +1.2% −10.3% −7.9% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +10.6% +4.9% +7.3% up next day
GMX (GMX) — −2.4% +5.1% +8.5% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +2.2% −7.0% −6.3% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — +1.0% +25.3% +12.7% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — +5.3% +35.1% +14.6% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +1.7% +0.2% −20.3% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −2.9% −31.1% −46.1% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +10.1% +2.2% −10.3% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −0.3% −28.0% −40.4% sideways next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −3.0% −10.8% −26.8% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −3.2% −34.5% −50.5% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +0.2% −38.3% −35.1% sideways next day
Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) — — — — not measured yet
Lido DAO (LDO) — +1.7% −3.2% +3.2% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −0.8% −31.5% −25.2% sideways next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −8.5% −22.5% −9.7% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −1.9% −19.4% −12.6% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +1.1% −4.4% +1.1% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +3.0% −17.3% −11.8% up next day
GMX (GMX) — +1.2% −26.7% −22.9% up next day
Amp (AMP) — −4.1% −22.0% −16.7% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −6.1% −16.9% −11.0% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +2.3% −21.2% −9.8% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +1.5% −27.6% −17.2% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −0.7% −15.5% −17.9% sideways next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +1.7% −0.9% −4.0% up next day
Safe (SAFE) — — — — not measured yet
Lido DAO (LDO) — +3.5% −6.4% −8.3% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −8.9% +0.2% −24.9% down next day
Safe (SAFE) — — — — not measured yet
ApeCoin (APE) — −6.2% −27.5% −41.1% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +6.2% −13.2% −23.9% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −1.9% −24.4% −35.0% down next day
GMX (GMX) — +21.7% +13.8% −1.0% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −11.8% −34.3% −23.4% down next day
GMX (GMX) — +6.2% −1.8% +4.0% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −1.6% −21.6% −15.8% down next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −1.2% +0.1% +0.5% down next day
Floki Inu (FLOKI) — — — — not measured yet
ApeCoin (APE) — +4.3% −16.5% −16.9% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +15.2% +25.5% +6.4% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +0.5% +60.8% +44.5% sideways next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −1.4% +51.7% +35.4% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −0.6% +7.4% −14.4% sideways next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −0.4% +45.4% +7.0% sideways next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +27.0% +130.7% +91.0% up next day
2022
GMX (GMX) — +0.6% +42.3% +4.9% sideways next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −0.5% +67.0% +27.9% sideways next day
Safe (SAFE) — — — — not measured yet
GMX (GMX) — +0.9% +9.0% −26.0% sideways next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +5.6% +146.3% +111.3% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −0.1% +54.3% +18.9% sideways next day
Optimism (OP) — −2.2% +120.3% +86.1% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −1.1% +107.4% +79.2% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −12.9% +94.7% +74.4% down next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −13.5% +4.7% −13.0% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −14.4% +28.9% +11.2% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −2.6% +21.3% +9.1% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +9.5% +84.0% +79.0% up next day
Immutable X (IMX) — +2.6% +14.2% +9.2% up next day
GMX (GMX) — +6.8% −18.5% −18.8% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +0.1% +6.7% +6.0% sideways next day
GMX (GMX) — +8.9% +9.5% +8.1% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −6.4% +4.6% +3.2% down next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — +7.8% −11.1% −14.5% up next day
Compound (COMP) — +0.3% −12.8% −16.2% sideways next day
Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) — — — — not measured yet
Gnosis (GNO) — −1.1% −4.4% −5.0% down next day
Optimism (OP) — +30.9% +34.3% +26.7% up next day
Safe (SAFE) — — — — not measured yet
Lido DAO (LDO) — +27.8% +10.6% +3.0% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +11.0% +41.2% +33.7% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +11.8% −8.4% +7.8% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +5.9% −24.1% −3.3% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +6.8% −24.5% −9.3% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +5.8% +34.9% +47.6% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +9.4% −14.4% −1.8% up next day
Convex Finance (CVX) — −11.1% −30.2% −15.6% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +8.5% −9.5% +4.0% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +6.2% −16.5% −0.7% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −4.3% −38.7% −26.5% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −4.5% −10.6% −0.1% down next day
Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) — — — — not measured yet
ApeCoin (APE) — +0.5% −8.5% −15.7% sideways next day
Optimism (OP) — −1.5% +24.7% +16.8% down next day
Compound (COMP) — −1.4% −19.5% −25.0% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −1.9% −22.7% −26.7% down next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) — −5.4% +18.0% +20.6% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +11.6% −20.7% −18.5% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −2.6% −26.6% −20.9% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −8.6% −13.0% −7.3% down next day
Compound (COMP) — +4.2% +0.7% +5.6% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −2.8% +28.7% +42.2% down next day
Compound (COMP) — +11.4% +22.2% +21.5% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +5.0% −24.8% −25.4% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +7.6% −22.7% −26.7% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −3.3% −30.8% −25.5% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −18.9% −21.5% −8.7% down next day
Optimism (OP) — −5.5% −22.2% −6.0% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −16.4% −7.8% +6.0% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −13.0% −30.8% −13.9% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −1.2% −29.0% −19.4% down next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) — −0.4% −11.0% −1.3% sideways next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +16.2% −9.2% −1.5% up next day
Convex Finance (CVX) — +3.0% −29.0% −10.2% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −8.1% −20.6% −3.8% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +2.7% −22.4% −9.4% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +17.2% −24.7% −11.5% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — +4.4% −12.9% +1.1% up next day
Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) — — — — not measured yet
ApeCoin (APE) — −2.2% −30.3% −17.6% down next day
Convex Finance (CVX) — +9.6% −9.3% −10.5% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +32.0% +38.4% +37.2% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −12.2% +32.0% +37.4% down next day
Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) — — — — not measured yet
Optimism (OP) — +7.6% +69.3% +80.3% up next day
Floki Inu (FLOKI) — — — — not measured yet
Convex Finance (CVX) — +14.7% +36.5% +16.6% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +50.2% +323.0% +303.1% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −0.2% +323.4% +308.6% sideways next day
Optimism (OP) — +10.1% +270.8% +255.3% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +3.1% +374.4% +357.6% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −3.5% +42.4% +24.9% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −9.2% +366.5% +349.0% down next day
Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) — — — — not measured yet
Convex Finance (CVX) — −15.9% +86.4% +71.5% down next day
Optimism (OP) — +27.7% +103.5% +91.1% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +1.4% +62.1% +52.7% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +0.6% +181.4% +172.0% sideways next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −2.5% +11.7% +17.6% down next day
Convex Finance (CVX) — 0.0% +53.1% +61.5% sideways next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −22.3% +16.9% +40.7% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −9.3% −12.1% +16.4% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −0.1% −32.1% −3.6% sideways next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — +8.1% −7.1% +24.2% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +3.5% −44.8% −12.4% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — +2.1% −9.3% +22.6% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +0.4% −26.0% +9.4% sideways next day
Convex Finance (CVX) — −12.9% −59.5% −22.3% down next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) — +7.8% +12.2% +43.9% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −2.8% −54.6% −20.7% down next day
Convex Finance (CVX) — −3.0% −68.9% −37.2% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — +49.6% −16.9% −14.6% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −14.8% −60.2% −35.4% down next day
Convex Finance (CVX) — +12.8% −60.4% −39.4% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −6.4% −19.8% +5.3% down next day
Convex Finance (CVX) — +5.8% −63.4% −37.8% up next day
PulseX (PLSX) — — — — not measured yet
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) — −6.1% −27.4% −6.6% down next day
Convex Finance (CVX) — −8.5% −36.8% −15.3% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) — — — — not measured yet
ApeCoin (APE) — −9.8% +40.6% +60.6% down next day
Convex Finance (CVX) — +4.8% +39.8% +41.1% up next day
Floki Inu (FLOKI) — — — — not measured yet
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −3.9% −9.5% −7.8% down next day
Convex Finance (CVX) — +9.8% +122.4% +108.1% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −8.1% +29.9% +11.0% down next day
Convex Finance (CVX) — −7.3% +7.2% −11.7% down next day
Floki Inu (FLOKI) — — — — not measured yet
Floki Inu (FLOKI) — — — — not measured yet
Convex Finance (CVX) — +8.6% −41.3% −31.2% up next day
Gnosis (GNO) — +13.6% +6.2% +3.2% up next day
Convex Finance (CVX) — −3.5% −32.1% −36.7% down next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — +5.4% −35.1% −33.9% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — +3.7% −34.7% −33.5% up next day
Convex Finance (CVX) — +25.9% −25.8% −29.8% up next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) — +0.6% −3.7% −9.7% sideways next day

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 276 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answered from this count

What does the 52% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 144 of the 276 measured past cases of governance votes of small-cap tokens closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 47% to 57% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 276.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 51% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 54% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 300 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every governance vote with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.