PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
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Pattern · governance votes · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-25

Governance votes of L1 and L2 tokens: all 564 measured cases

governance vote category · l1 l2held up on recent cases 577 cases on record last 5 cases: 1 up

Explained and tested in our research: What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a governance vote?

higher the next day

52%

293 of 564 past cases

52% of past cases were higher (90% range 48-55%)

90% range 48%–55%

higher after 30 days

46%

257 of 562 cases measured after 30 days

46% of past cases were higher (90% range 42-49%)

90% range 42%–49% · typical move −2.3%

typical next day
+0.3%
typical after 30 days
−2.3%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
−6.0%
best after 30 days
+270.8%
worst after 30 days
−53.2%
30 days: up · sideways · down
225 · 85 · 252

recent-cases check · held up: 52% → 52% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

VOTEall governance votes against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
0−3…+3
7 days
0−3…+3
30 days
+2−2…+5

No clear edge 1, 7 or 30 days later: no 95% range clears the same coins' ordinary days with both halves of history agreeing (1,308 cases on 893 separate days). Coin by coin, it is a likely driver on 1 coin.

Every past governance vote, 30 days on 562 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 198 rose · ▼ 227 fell · ◆ 137 sideways (±8.0% over 30 days)

Each line is one past governance vote: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · 80 of the 562 cases measured that far, evenly through their dates · past cases, not a projection

Governance votes of L1 and L2 tokens: 564 of the 577 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 293 of those 564 closed higher — a base rate of 52%, with a 90% range of 48% to 55%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up564 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

Governance votes of L1 and L2 tokens: 564 of the 577 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 293 of those 564 closed higher — a base rate of 52%, with a 90% range of 48% to 55%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.

  • By day 30, 257 of the 562 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (46%).
  • The typical day-30 move was −2.3%, the best +270.8% and the worst −53.2%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −6.0% vs BTC and beat it in 32.9% of 562 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 52% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 52% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD1 scheduled

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running

  • 3 days ago · STRK Starknet next day −13.7% · 30 days lands
  • 3 days ago · ARB Arbitrum next day −8.7% · 30 days lands

1 scheduled governance vote meets every condition of this pattern. Each one is dated, and its move is measured from that day. A narrower pattern that also fits gives it its odds.

DateTokenEventSizeWhenIts odds come from
Aave (AAVE)[ARFC] Onboard mWIN (Midas / Wellington Management) to Aave Horizon—tomorrowGovernance votes of mid-cap L1 and L2 tokens

Every past case577 cases

Every past governance vote behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 577 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

577 past cases of governance votes of l1 and l2 tokens, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2026
Starknet (STRK) — −13.7% in 27 days in 27 days down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −8.7% in 27 days in 27 days down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +31.5% +7.8% +0.9% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −5.4% +139.3% +132.5% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −7.8% +9.9% −6.7% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +2.4% −17.7% −15.2% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +20.9% +1.8% −2.5% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +5.5% +2.7% −1.9% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −2.2% +8.4% +3.0% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −13.5% −13.7% −12.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +11.3% −37.6% −12.4% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +10.4% +35.1% +21.6% up next day
Starknet (STRK) — +4.2% +22.8% +4.8% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −2.1% +29.9% +14.4% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +2.7% +15.6% +11.5% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +6.6% −6.6% −12.8% up next day
2025
Starknet (STRK) — +2.5% +2.9% −6.7% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −4.9% −4.3% −2.7% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −9.1% −6.1% −3.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.9% −9.9% −7.0% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −11.9% −17.4% −13.9% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −8.4% −17.0% −5.8% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −7.0% −32.5% −15.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +6.3% −33.5% −12.3% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −7.1% −26.3% −12.6% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +3.4% −29.5% −22.3% up next day
Starknet (STRK) — +27.2% −13.0% −7.7% up next day
Mantle (MNT) — −2.9% −1.7% +6.3% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +6.8% −41.2% −38.2% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −3.1% −14.9% −24.5% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +11.5% +25.5% +29.7% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −9.1% +20.2% +27.8% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +4.2% +34.4% +38.5% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +2.7% +11.8% +12.9% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +0.9% +17.8% +15.0% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −4.5% +11.4% +7.2% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −6.8% +6.0% +2.6% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −1.0% +45.3% +35.4% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −6.7% +51.3% +39.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.1% +17.6% +5.2% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −12.3% +0.6% −7.5% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −7.6% −8.6% −12.0% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −18.6% −24.1% −23.6% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −8.6% −37.6% −28.0% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +21.8% +11.9% +3.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.9% +54.4% +43.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.6% +49.6% +39.7% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +1.8% +4.1% −12.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −9.0% −9.8% −17.3% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −8.9% −7.7% −16.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.9% −2.5% −11.4% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.0% −12.0% −19.4% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.5% −20.5% −21.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.3% −18.7% −20.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.9% −20.5% −21.2% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +6.0% −12.6% −15.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.3% −14.5% −17.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.9% −36.0% −24.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −9.2% −32.9% −24.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −6.1% −38.1% −25.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.5% −32.8% −20.3% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.1% −21.6% −19.7% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.9% −12.4% −7.6% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.6% −22.5% −9.3% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.4% −32.4% −20.4% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.7% −28.1% −18.5% down next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Aave (AAVE) — −1.2% −35.8% −21.2% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +0.7% −26.2% −12.4% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.9% −31.6% −17.7% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +1.0% −21.5% −5.2% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −8.2% −26.5% −16.5% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +5.9% −31.0% −13.9% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.2% −32.0% −25.1% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +7.0% −20.9% −12.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.4% −18.4% −14.5% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +3.0% −39.8% −36.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −14.1% −29.3% −23.7% down next day
2024
Aave (AAVE) — +2.7% −5.8% −14.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.9% −6.3% −13.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +17.6% +8.7% −0.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +28.2% +24.0% +14.9% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −7.6% −10.9% −15.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.4% −23.3% −16.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.4% −21.6% −16.1% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +3.4% −25.6% −19.1% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +5.6% −16.8% −18.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +8.9% +41.7% +40.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +5.2% +61.9% +66.7% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +6.3% −18.7% −16.7% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −3.9% −19.8% −19.2% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +20.4% +11.5% +8.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.8% +133.0% +113.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.5% +54.1% +20.8% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +7.8% +112.1% +80.0% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −8.3% +53.6% +10.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −9.4% +52.8% +6.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.9% −1.3% −37.9% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +1.1% +30.1% −3.9% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +6.3% −5.1% −19.5% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +11.6% −14.1% −20.3% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +1.0% −17.4% −21.2% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.0% −14.3% −21.9% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +5.7% −0.1% −6.7% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +10.4% +10.0% +0.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.8% +5.7% −4.0% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +9.1% +7.0% −3.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.2% +11.9% +0.1% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +1.1% +0.9% −7.3% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +4.4% +4.6% −5.7% up next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Arbitrum (ARB) — −3.3% +10.7% +3.6% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −1.6% +24.0% +12.4% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +10.7% +6.8% +1.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.9% +19.3% +14.0% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +9.0% +11.4% +7.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.9% +33.0% +30.2% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −5.0% −5.5% −7.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +7.3% +64.0% +66.3% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +4.1% −8.3% +2.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.8% +34.8% +30.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −9.4% +12.5% +17.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −11.9% +22.3% +26.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −8.2% −21.8% −13.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −3.6% −24.2% −13.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +11.0% +24.7% +35.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.6% +27.2% +40.7% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +3.2% −14.4% −12.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +9.0% +46.0% +48.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +8.7% +52.3% +54.2% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.4% +44.4% +55.0% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.4% −31.1% −20.8% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.4% +17.2% +28.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.4% +13.0% +21.7% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +3.6% −27.7% −20.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +7.0% −1.7% −4.1% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −2.4% −18.7% −23.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.3% +24.6% +28.4% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.2% +19.7% +24.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.6% +22.2% +20.3% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −2.6% −11.3% −22.8% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.8% −12.5% −22.3% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +14.0% +11.4% +8.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +5.7% +15.7% +13.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.8% +15.9% +10.8% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −1.3% −4.2% −7.5% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −14.0% −19.2% −15.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.6% +24.4% +26.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.6% +24.7% +33.6% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −6.3% −28.0% −14.8% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.1% −25.5% −11.5% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −11.1% −40.2% −19.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −9.4% −23.7% −2.6% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −11.1% −38.3% −20.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.6% −22.4% −2.7% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.1% −18.3% −7.1% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.9% −12.1% −3.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.7% −5.3% +1.6% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +0.5% −28.9% −20.7% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.2% −5.3% +2.9% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −6.0% −34.1% −22.4% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −7.3% −33.1% −22.0% down next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Arbitrum (ARB) — +0.6% −31.9% −20.8% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +7.4% −17.5% −10.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +5.3% −13.5% −6.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.7% −13.4% −4.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +13.8% +2.3% +4.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +11.1% −7.0% −4.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.4% −3.8% −3.0% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +3.9% −2.4% −9.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.9% +1.1% −5.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.6% +6.6% −4.0% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.9% +8.4% −6.0% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −8.5% +3.9% −6.5% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −3.2% −5.9% −19.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.3% +16.0% +4.9% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.4% +13.8% +4.4% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +3.2% +8.1% −6.6% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +3.4% +10.1% −6.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.1% +24.4% +8.3% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +0.6% +9.4% −1.9% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −6.4% +15.1% +8.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.6% +15.0% +7.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.6% +15.9% +8.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.8% +21.3% +12.4% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.3% +19.7% +13.5% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −4.6% +6.7% −1.0% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −7.6% −1.8% −5.0% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −7.7% −0.5% −2.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.9% +1.5% −0.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.9% +3.7% −2.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +5.1% +5.8% −2.2% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.2% +14.3% +2.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +7.5% −0.1% −4.5% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −4.1% −15.7% −18.6% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −2.2% −15.8% −16.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.8% −2.6% +1.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −11.9% −17.0% −10.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −29.8% −29.4% −17.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +9.0% −25.8% −16.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +8.1% −22.7% −15.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.9% −22.6% −16.1% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +1.1% −35.6% −27.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.7% −29.9% −21.3% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.1% −29.4% −18.6% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −4.0% −36.8% −29.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.8% −27.3% −23.0% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −5.3% −29.4% −28.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.6% −26.2% −25.3% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +3.7% −31.1% −34.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +12.7% −21.6% −24.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.7% −30.8% −24.7% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −6.4% −36.3% −25.9% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.9% −27.0% −24.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −14.8% −36.9% −28.9% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −9.5% −42.1% −29.6% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +1.5% −31.9% −29.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.7% +1.3% −1.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.1% −3.7% −4.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.9% −8.3% −12.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +3.9% −27.6% −31.9% up next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Aave (AAVE) — −6.1% +1.6% −2.9% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +5.8% +18.7% +7.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.6% +24.4% −5.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.4% +24.6% −9.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.6% +29.3% −6.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.0% +34.2% −3.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +10.0% +35.8% +4.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.5% +16.5% −3.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.1% +30.6% +0.9% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.8% +37.6% +5.8% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −4.8% −16.8% −42.9% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +1.2% −7.8% −47.6% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +5.4% +8.9% −42.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.7% +53.2% +3.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.4% +56.1% +3.2% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +5.2% +11.0% −41.2% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.8% +49.0% −3.3% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +1.8% +16.5% −41.5% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +5.7% +18.6% −36.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.7% +23.5% −24.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.1% +32.9% −25.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.0% +34.2% −12.3% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −4.9% +4.8% −36.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −8.3% +13.0% −28.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.1% +14.5% −34.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.2% +14.4% −21.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.2% +12.5% −17.7% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.1% +12.9% −16.5% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +4.6% +6.2% −22.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.9% +5.6% −21.6% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +2.9% +7.1% −22.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.9% +0.2% −29.4% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.1% −4.9% −29.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.9% −3.7% −29.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.6% −0.9% −25.2% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.6% −2.3% −28.5% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −3.4% −1.8% −23.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.4% −9.4% −31.4% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.0% −15.5% −31.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.5% −11.8% −28.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.3% −20.4% −24.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.8% −17.5% −19.8% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +22.3% +2.3% +5.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.4% −15.0% −13.0% sideways next day
2023
Aave (AAVE) — −2.2% −5.1% +0.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −2.9% +84.3% +80.9% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.2% −1.1% −3.2% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −7.2% +83.5% +83.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +14.2% +11.9% +11.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.4% +19.7% +7.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.4% +9.3% +2.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.1% −2.2% −7.7% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.9% +56.2% +49.9% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.5% −0.5% −6.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — 0.0% −3.8% −5.3% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.0% +4.3% +4.1% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.5% +74.5% +67.3% sideways next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Aave (AAVE) — −4.0% +5.8% −8.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +6.0% +67.7% +53.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.0% +10.6% −1.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.7% +3.7% −11.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +5.7% +12.7% −4.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.7% +9.4% −7.5% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +0.2% +5.5% −11.0% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.1% +12.0% −4.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.2% +9.9% −4.5% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +2.5% +6.1% −11.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.7% +15.2% −2.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.2% −4.4% −16.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.4% −8.6% −19.2% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −5.9% −4.3% −23.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.8% −2.8% −22.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +7.3% +4.2% −18.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.4% +2.1% −22.7% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.7% −2.8% −27.8% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +9.4% +8.1% −16.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +11.3% +9.6% −16.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.1% +11.7% −2.7% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +4.8% +9.4% −2.2% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +7.8% +4.3% −5.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −9.0% +15.7% +6.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +5.3% +20.4% −4.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +9.6% +43.2% +13.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.2% +42.0% +12.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.1% +49.3% +9.9% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.8% +41.3% +8.9% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.4% +45.9% +10.2% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.1% +43.7% +5.2% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.0% +59.3% +26.2% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.2% +46.0% +19.4% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.3% +33.1% +5.4% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −5.3% +17.1% −9.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.8% +38.5% +11.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.6% +33.0% +5.9% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −6.6% +7.3% −19.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +9.3% +26.7% −1.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.8% +28.6% +0.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +7.5% +28.2% −1.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.5% +29.7% −0.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.0% +39.4% +8.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.8% +26.8% +13.9% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.7% +7.0% −3.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +8.2% +5.5% −1.8% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +8.7% −1.5% −8.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.3% +5.8% −1.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.2% +16.0% +8.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +8.8% +17.6% +15.3% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +2.6% +3.0% −0.9% up next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Aave (AAVE) — −1.8% +17.1% +13.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +0.0% −3.7% −12.2% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.5% +21.1% +12.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.9% +17.8% +11.8% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.5% +26.8% +20.3% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −3.1% +5.8% −2.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.6% +30.0% +22.1% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.4% +9.3% +8.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.4% +7.4% +7.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.8% +9.3% +5.0% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +2.2% −18.2% −20.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.3% +8.5% +5.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.1% +7.1% +7.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.5% −2.0% +5.6% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −8.1% −29.6% −19.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.3% −19.5% −7.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.0% −16.5% −4.1% down next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Aave (AAVE) — −0.4% −14.3% −3.0% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.4% −18.5% −11.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −12.1% −19.9% −14.3% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +0.8% −18.3% −7.6% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.6% −19.5% −8.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.0% −23.4% −10.9% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −2.8% −18.4% −6.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.7% −21.1% −8.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.9% −19.6% −16.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.3% −19.2% −16.3% down next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Aave (AAVE) — −0.2% −17.1% −10.3% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +8.2% +3.7% +6.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.8% −10.0% −8.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.9% −13.1% −9.4% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.8% −6.1% −3.4% up next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Arbitrum (ARB) — +1.8% +2.3% +7.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.2% −13.6% −8.9% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +7.1% −3.7% −0.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.2% −7.3% −3.3% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +8.2% +12.5% +16.3% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −1.6% +2.9% +6.4% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.9% +14.7% +18.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +10.7% +22.8% +27.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.7% +30.0% +29.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.8% +30.4% +31.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.4% +48.1% +33.7% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.9% +53.4% +35.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.6% +51.7% +31.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.9% +39.1% +20.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −13.0% +15.5% +0.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −11.9% +20.1% +6.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.5% +24.5% +9.6% up next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Aave (AAVE) — −1.8% +18.8% +6.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.3% +14.7% +0.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.3% +6.8% −5.6% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.6% −1.1% −15.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.3% −10.7% −26.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.1% −12.8% −25.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.6% −13.5% −24.8% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.1% −20.4% −20.3% down next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Aave (AAVE) — +0.6% −21.5% −19.7% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.2% −19.3% −16.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.4% −15.0% −11.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.3% −16.2% −12.3% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.3% −7.3% −3.1% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.6% −11.6% −6.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.4% −11.3% −5.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.5% −8.0% −3.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.6% −9.1% −2.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.0% −7.2% −2.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.6% −3.4% +1.4% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.3% −9.2% −4.7% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −7.5% −28.2% −19.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −8.8% −20.0% −11.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −1.3% −29.3% −19.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.7% −22.1% −12.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.6% −23.7% −12.9% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.2% −30.0% −19.2% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.1% −23.9% −13.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.7% −20.1% −8.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.8% −15.1% −12.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.7% −17.6% −16.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.3% −14.8% −16.2% down next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Aave (AAVE) — +5.5% −3.8% −8.6% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +2.7% +11.8% +8.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.7% −1.8% −4.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.6% −7.1% −5.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.9% −1.5% −5.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.8% −1.5% −4.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.0% +2.1% −5.4% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.4% +2.3% −6.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.1% 0.0% −3.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.8% −5.6% −7.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.4% −12.4% −9.4% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.5% −6.8% −9.7% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.2% +5.4% −7.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +9.1% +11.5% −13.2% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.8% +6.8% −19.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +8.8% +8.5% −27.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.4% +14.9% −32.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.6% +11.1% −28.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.7% +6.4% −22.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.7% +1.5% −24.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.8% −8.6% −28.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.8% −4.5% −27.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.5% −11.3% −31.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.2% −11.8% −29.5% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.7% −14.5% −31.5% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −6.5% −14.8% −31.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.0% −16.1% −29.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.6% −16.2% −30.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.6% −16.6% −28.9% down next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Aave (AAVE) — +1.1% −13.2% −27.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.3% −11.9% −24.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +8.6% −9.2% −24.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +7.4% −4.5% −16.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.1% −6.6% −7.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −9.5% −23.2% −12.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.4% −18.4% −7.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.5% −16.3% −11.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.8% −15.1% −10.6% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.3% −14.7% −8.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.5% −8.0% −9.8% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.5% +3.9% −3.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.9% +10.8% −4.4% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +0.5% +60.8% +44.5% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.1% +9.5% +3.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +11.4% +15.9% +6.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +10.7% +23.7% +1.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.4% +46.7% +12.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.5% +69.2% +26.3% up next day
2022
Aave (AAVE) — −0.4% +58.6% +22.0% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.3% +53.3% +18.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.5% +50.9% +15.5% down next day
Optimism (OP) — −2.2% +120.3% +86.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.2% +46.8% +23.2% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.8% +46.9% +19.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −8.9% +30.0% +9.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.0% +7.7% +2.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.1% −0.7% −0.9% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.2% −5.6% −5.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.2% −8.8% −9.4% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +8.5% −9.5% −12.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.2% −12.5% −13.2% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.9% −5.4% −7.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.2% −6.5% −7.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.2% −5.0% −8.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.7% −0.4% −6.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.5% −0.2% −3.5% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +30.9% +34.3% +26.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +10.2% +5.7% −1.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −8.7% −31.9% −12.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +17.5% −22.0% −5.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.6% −22.0% −5.4% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.4% −22.2% −5.4% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.9% −24.4% −5.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.7% −26.0% −5.2% sideways next day
Optimism (OP) — +5.8% +34.9% +47.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.7% −7.6% +0.4% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.3% −3.2% +1.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.3% +13.0% +6.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.1% +9.1% +3.8% down next day
Optimism (OP) — −1.5% +24.7% +16.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.4% +9.8% +1.9% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.8% +6.8% +1.3% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.2% +15.8% +14.9% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.7% −3.4% −1.2% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +7.6% −22.7% −26.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.6% −9.4% −12.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.5% −14.6% −13.0% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.8% −16.0% −10.6% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.2% −12.1% −8.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +7.5% −2.3% −1.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −12.0% −21.0% −8.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.3% −13.8% −3.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.1% −13.2% −3.9% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.8% −10.6% +0.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.1% −8.4% −2.2% up next day
Optimism (OP) — −5.5% −22.2% −6.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.1% −24.9% −7.4% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.8% −14.8% −6.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.2% −16.6% −6.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +8.5% −13.9% +5.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.3% −15.6% +2.5% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +17.2% −24.7% −11.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.5% −11.2% +5.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.2% −10.2% +4.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +23.9% +2.1% +6.9% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +7.6% +69.3% +80.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +8.5% +13.6% +1.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.4% +18.5% +2.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +13.4% +38.6% +17.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −12.1% +42.8% +28.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −14.7% +19.5% +12.3% down next day
Optimism (OP) — +10.1% +270.8% +255.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.8% +58.9% +41.4% down next day
Optimism (OP) — +27.7% +103.5% +91.1% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +1.4% +62.1% +52.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +24.2% +92.9% +69.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −20.3% −20.7% +10.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −19.5% −18.9% +11.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.4% −27.9% +2.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.8% −43.2% −10.8% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.8% −50.0% −10.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.3% −33.4% −5.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — 0.0% −6.4% −4.1% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −26.7% −16.2% −10.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −24.8% −24.8% −12.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −9.0% −23.4% −10.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.7% −27.4% −4.9% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −6.9% −25.4% −7.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +5.1% −41.5% −16.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.0% −46.3% −21.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.4% −49.9% −23.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −6.6% −53.2% −22.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.1% −30.9% −13.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −8.5% −37.4% −16.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +15.0% −29.3% −13.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +9.9% +15.7% +22.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −8.6% +44.8% +42.9% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.0% +50.8% +41.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −9.3% +70.7% +66.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.8% +25.1% +5.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.6% +30.7% +11.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.4% −0.3% −2.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −11.1% −7.0% −0.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.4% −27.6% −21.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.6% −36.6% −24.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.2% −34.5% −24.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.0% −26.5% −25.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +8.6% −23.7% −26.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +10.3% −17.6% −24.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +9.9% −7.5% −23.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.8% −8.1% −14.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.9% −17.8% −22.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.2% −17.6% −20.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.8% −8.3% −17.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −14.6% −37.4% −31.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.2% −32.5% −28.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.5% −25.7% −21.8% up next day

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 564 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answered from this count

What does the 52% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 293 of the 564 measured past cases of governance votes of L1 and L2 tokens closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 48% to 55% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 564.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 52% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 52% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 577 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every governance vote with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.