PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
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Pattern · governance votes · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-25

Governance votes of L1 and L2 tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: all 252 measured cases

governance vote category · l1 l2btc trend · downheld up on recent cases 258 cases on record last 5 cases: 3 up

Explained and tested in our research: What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a governance vote?

higher the next day

46%

116 of 252 past cases

46% of past cases were higher (90% range 41-51%)

90% range 41%–51%

higher after 30 days

47%

117 of 250 cases measured after 30 days

47% of past cases were higher (90% range 42-52%)

90% range 42%–52% · typical move −1.3%

typical next day
−0.6%
typical after 30 days
−1.3%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
−5.0%
best after 30 days
+270.8%
worst after 30 days
−53.2%
30 days: up · sideways · down
105 · 37 · 108

recent-cases check · held up: 48% → 44% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

VOTEall governance votes against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
0−3…+3
7 days
0−3…+3
30 days
+2−2…+5

No clear edge 1, 7 or 30 days later: no 95% range clears the same coins' ordinary days with both halves of history agreeing (1,308 cases on 893 separate days). Coin by coin, it is a likely driver on 1 coin.

Every past governance vote, 30 days on 250 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 90 rose · ▼ 96 fell · ◆ 64 sideways (±7.7% over 30 days)

Each line is one past governance vote: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · 80 of the 250 cases measured that far, evenly through their dates · past cases, not a projection

Governance votes of L1 and L2 tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 252 of the 258 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 116 of those 252 closed higher — a base rate of 46%, with a 90% range of 41% to 51%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up252 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

Governance votes of L1 and L2 tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 252 of the 258 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 116 of those 252 closed higher — a base rate of 46%, with a 90% range of 41% to 51%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.

  • By day 30, 117 of the 250 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (47%).
  • The typical day-30 move was −1.3%, the best +270.8% and the worst −53.2%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −5.0% vs BTC and beat it in 35.6% of 250 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 48% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 44% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running

  • 3 days ago · STRK Starknet next day −13.7% · 30 days lands
  • 3 days ago · ARB Arbitrum next day −8.7% · 30 days lands

NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled governance vote can be matched to this pattern before it happens.

Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Governance votes of L1 and L2 tokens →

Every past case258 cases

Every past governance vote behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 258 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

258 past cases of governance votes of l1 and l2 tokens with btc below its 50-day average, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2026
Starknet (STRK) — −13.7% in 27 days in 27 days down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −8.7% in 27 days in 27 days down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +2.4% −17.7% −15.2% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +20.9% +1.8% −2.5% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +5.5% +2.7% −1.9% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −2.2% +8.4% +3.0% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −13.5% −13.7% −12.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −2.1% +29.9% +14.4% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +2.7% +15.6% +11.5% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +6.6% −6.6% −12.8% up next day
2025
Starknet (STRK) — +2.5% +2.9% −6.7% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −4.9% −4.3% −2.7% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −9.1% −6.1% −3.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.9% −9.9% −7.0% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −11.9% −17.4% −13.9% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −8.4% −17.0% −5.8% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −7.0% −32.5% −15.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +6.3% −33.5% −12.3% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −7.1% −26.3% −12.6% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −3.1% −14.9% −24.5% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +1.8% +4.1% −12.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −9.0% −9.8% −17.3% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −8.9% −7.7% −16.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.9% −2.5% −11.4% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.0% −12.0% −19.4% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.5% −20.5% −21.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.3% −18.7% −20.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.9% −20.5% −21.2% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +6.0% −12.6% −15.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.3% −14.5% −17.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.9% −36.0% −24.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −9.2% −32.9% −24.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −6.1% −38.1% −25.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.5% −32.8% −20.3% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.1% −21.6% −19.7% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.9% −12.4% −7.6% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.6% −22.5% −9.3% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.4% −32.4% −20.4% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.7% −28.1% −18.5% down next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Aave (AAVE) — −1.2% −35.8% −21.2% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +0.7% −26.2% −12.4% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.9% −31.6% −17.7% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +1.0% −21.5% −5.2% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −14.1% −29.3% −23.7% down next day
2024
Aave (AAVE) — +2.7% −5.8% −14.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.9% −6.3% −13.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.2% +11.9% +0.1% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +4.4% +4.6% −5.7% up next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Arbitrum (ARB) — −3.3% +10.7% +3.6% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −1.6% +24.0% +12.4% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +9.0% +11.4% +7.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.9% +33.0% +30.2% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −5.0% −5.5% −7.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +7.3% +64.0% +66.3% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +4.1% −8.3% +2.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.8% +34.8% +30.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −9.4% +12.5% +17.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −11.9% +22.3% +26.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +7.0% −1.7% −4.1% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −2.4% −18.7% −23.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.3% +24.6% +28.4% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.2% +19.7% +24.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.6% +22.2% +20.3% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −2.6% −11.3% −22.8% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −0.8% −12.5% −22.3% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +14.0% +11.4% +8.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +5.7% +15.7% +13.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.8% +15.9% +10.8% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −1.3% −4.2% −7.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.9% +1.1% −5.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.6% +6.6% −4.0% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.9% +8.4% −6.0% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −8.5% +3.9% −6.5% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −3.2% −5.9% −19.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.3% +16.0% +4.9% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.4% +13.8% +4.4% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +3.2% +8.1% −6.6% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +3.4% +10.1% −6.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.1% +24.4% +8.3% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +0.6% +9.4% −1.9% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −6.4% +15.1% +8.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.6% +15.0% +7.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.6% +15.9% +8.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.8% +21.3% +12.4% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.3% +19.7% +13.5% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −4.6% +6.7% −1.0% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −7.6% −1.8% −5.0% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −7.7% −0.5% −2.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.9% +1.5% −0.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.9% +3.7% −2.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +5.1% +5.8% −2.2% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.2% +14.3% +2.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +7.5% −0.1% −4.5% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −4.1% −15.7% −18.6% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −2.2% −15.8% −16.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.8% −2.6% +1.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −11.9% −17.0% −10.8% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +5.7% +18.6% −36.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.7% +23.5% −24.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.2% +14.4% −21.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.2% +12.5% −17.7% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.1% +12.9% −16.5% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +4.6% +6.2% −22.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.9% +5.6% −21.6% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +2.9% +7.1% −22.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.9% +0.2% −29.4% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.1% −4.9% −29.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.9% −3.7% −29.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.6% −0.9% −25.2% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.6% −2.3% −28.5% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.0% −15.5% −31.5% down next day
2023
Aave (AAVE) — +7.5% +28.2% −1.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.5% +29.7% −0.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.0% +39.4% +8.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.8% +26.8% +13.9% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.7% +7.0% −3.3% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +8.7% −1.5% −8.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.3% +5.8% −1.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.2% +16.0% +8.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +8.8% +17.6% +15.3% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +2.6% +3.0% −0.9% up next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Aave (AAVE) — −1.8% +17.1% +13.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +0.0% −3.7% −12.2% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.5% +21.1% +12.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.9% +17.8% +11.8% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.5% +26.8% +20.3% sideways next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −3.1% +5.8% −2.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.6% +30.0% +22.1% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.4% +9.3% +8.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.4% +7.4% +7.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.8% +9.3% +5.0% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — +2.2% −18.2% −20.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.3% +8.5% +5.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.1% +7.1% +7.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.5% −2.0% +5.6% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) — −8.1% −29.6% −19.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.3% −19.5% −7.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.0% −16.5% −4.1% down next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Aave (AAVE) — −0.4% −14.3% −3.0% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.4% −18.5% −11.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −12.1% −19.9% −14.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.4% +48.1% +33.7% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.9% +53.4% +35.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.6% +51.7% +31.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.9% +39.1% +20.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −13.0% +15.5% +0.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −11.9% +20.1% +6.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.5% +24.5% +9.6% up next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Aave (AAVE) — −1.8% +18.8% +6.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.3% +14.7% +0.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.3% +6.8% −5.6% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.6% −1.1% −15.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.3% −10.7% −26.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.1% −12.8% −25.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.6% −13.5% −24.8% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.1% −20.4% −20.3% down next day
Mantle (MNT) — — — — not measured yet
Aave (AAVE) — +0.6% −21.5% −19.7% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.2% −19.3% −16.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.4% −15.0% −11.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.3% −16.2% −12.3% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.3% −7.3% −3.1% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.6% −11.6% −6.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.6% −9.1% −2.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.4% +14.9% −32.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.6% +11.1% −28.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.7% +6.4% −22.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.7% +1.5% −24.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.8% −8.6% −28.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.5% +69.2% +26.3% up next day
2022
Aave (AAVE) — −0.4% +58.6% +22.0% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.3% +53.3% +18.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.5% +50.9% +15.5% down next day
Optimism (OP) — −2.2% +120.3% +86.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.2% +46.8% +23.2% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.8% +46.9% +19.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −8.9% +30.0% +9.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.0% +7.7% +2.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.1% −0.7% −0.9% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.2% −5.6% −5.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.2% −8.8% −9.4% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +8.5% −9.5% −12.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.2% −12.5% −13.2% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.9% −5.4% −7.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.2% −6.5% −7.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.2% −5.0% −8.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.7% −0.4% −6.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.5% −0.2% −3.5% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +30.9% +34.3% +26.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +10.2% +5.7% −1.9% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +5.8% +34.9% +47.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.7% −7.6% +0.4% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.3% −3.2% +1.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.3% +13.0% +6.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.1% +9.1% +3.8% down next day
Optimism (OP) — −1.5% +24.7% +16.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.4% +9.8% +1.9% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.8% +6.8% +1.3% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.2% +15.8% +14.9% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.7% −3.4% −1.2% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +7.6% −22.7% −26.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.6% −9.4% −12.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.5% −14.6% −13.0% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.8% −16.0% −10.6% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.2% −12.1% −8.5% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +7.5% −2.3% −1.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −12.0% −21.0% −8.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.3% −13.8% −3.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +0.1% −13.2% −3.9% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.8% −10.6% +0.1% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.1% −8.4% −2.2% up next day
Optimism (OP) — −5.5% −22.2% −6.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +8.5% +13.6% +1.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.4% +18.5% +2.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +13.4% +38.6% +17.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −12.1% +42.8% +28.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −14.7% +19.5% +12.3% down next day
Optimism (OP) — +10.1% +270.8% +255.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.8% +58.9% +41.4% down next day
Optimism (OP) — +27.7% +103.5% +91.1% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +1.4% +62.1% +52.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +24.2% +92.9% +69.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −20.3% −20.7% +10.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −19.5% −18.9% +11.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.4% −27.9% +2.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −0.8% −43.2% −10.8% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −1.8% −50.0% −10.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −5.3% −33.4% −5.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — 0.0% −6.4% −4.1% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) — −26.7% −16.2% −10.0% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −24.8% −24.8% −12.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −9.0% −23.4% −10.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.7% −27.4% −4.9% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −6.9% −25.4% −7.6% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +5.1% −41.5% −16.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −2.0% −46.3% −21.7% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +4.4% −49.9% −23.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −6.6% −53.2% −22.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −8.6% +44.8% +42.9% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +6.8% +25.1% +5.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +1.6% +30.7% +11.8% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.4% −0.3% −2.1% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.4% −27.6% −21.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +8.6% −23.7% −26.7% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +10.3% −17.6% −24.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — +9.9% −7.5% −23.4% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.8% −8.1% −14.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −3.9% −17.8% −22.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −4.2% −17.6% −20.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +3.8% −8.3% −17.3% up next day
Aave (AAVE) — −14.6% −37.4% −31.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — −7.2% −32.5% −28.5% down next day
Aave (AAVE) — +2.5% −25.7% −21.8% up next day

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 252 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answered from this count

What does the 46% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 116 of the 252 measured past cases of governance votes of L1 and L2 tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 41% to 51% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 252.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 48% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 44% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 258 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every governance vote with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.