How often it went up142 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Governance votes of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 142 of the 155 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 76 of those 142 closed higher — a base rate of 54%, with a 90% range of 47% to 60%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- By day 30, 72 of the 141 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (51%).
- The typical day-30 move was +0.2%, the best +374.4% and the worst −68.9%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −4.4% vs BTC and beat it in 44.0% of 141 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 53% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 54% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 3 days ago · STRK Starknet next day −13.7% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled governance vote can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Governance votes of small-cap tokens →
Every past case155 cases
Every past governance vote behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 155 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Starknet (STRK) | — | −13.7% | in 27 days | in 27 days | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +11.5% | +0.6% | −5.8% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Starknet (STRK) | — | +2.5% | +2.9% | −6.7% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −0.4% | +11.6% | +6.2% | sideways next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −8.4% | −0.7% | −14.3% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +2.9% | +16.0% | −0.2% | up next day | |
| The Sandbox (SAND) | — | −5.0% | +9.4% | −4.4% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −6.1% | −15.0% | −13.0% | down next day | |
| The Sandbox (SAND) | — | −0.2% | −9.7% | −11.8% | sideways next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +4.9% | +2.4% | +1.1% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +2.2% | −20.9% | −7.6% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +0.2% | −27.7% | −13.8% | sideways next day | |
| The Sandbox (SAND) | — | −7.6% | −23.5% | −12.3% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +2.1% | −18.1% | −19.5% | up next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| GMX (GMX) | — | −4.4% | +15.7% | −7.4% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | 0.0% | +1.4% | −13.0% | sideways next day | |
| The Sandbox (SAND) | — | +0.8% | +4.5% | −3.5% | sideways next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −3.1% | −13.4% | −21.4% | down next day | |
| The Sandbox (SAND) | — | +5.5% | +4.1% | −3.0% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +4.6% | +5.9% | +12.2% | up next day | |
| The Sandbox (SAND) | — | +0.6% | −10.9% | −15.7% | sideways next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +2.8% | −8.2% | −11.5% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −2.8% | +50.6% | +37.4% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +10.8% | +68.1% | +56.8% | up next day | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −2.8% | +21.0% | +13.3% | down next day | |
| Safe (SAFE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +15.4% | +13.4% | +17.1% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +10.9% | +14.9% | −12.3% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +0.6% | +24.8% | −1.4% | sideways next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| GMX (GMX) | — | +1.7% | +19.2% | −8.4% | up next day | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +1.0% | +15.9% | +3.0% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −0.1% | −0.6% | −10.9% | sideways next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +4.3% | −1.2% | −7.9% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −3.1% | −8.4% | −10.8% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +3.0% | +7.5% | +5.1% | up next day | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −0.2% | −17.6% | −26.2% | sideways next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −5.6% | −15.7% | −14.4% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −3.5% | −25.0% | −25.5% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −9.7% | −36.0% | −28.4% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +4.0% | −28.0% | −15.6% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −1.5% | −18.8% | −6.4% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +0.7% | −22.6% | −11.2% | sideways next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | +1.0% | +25.3% | +12.7% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | +5.3% | +35.1% | +14.6% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +1.7% | +0.2% | −20.3% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −2.9% | −31.1% | −46.1% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +10.1% | +2.2% | −10.3% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −0.3% | −28.0% | −40.4% | sideways next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −3.0% | −10.8% | −26.8% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −3.2% | −34.5% | −50.5% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +0.2% | −38.3% | −35.1% | sideways next day | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +1.7% | −3.2% | +3.2% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −0.8% | −31.5% | −25.2% | sideways next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −8.9% | +0.2% | −24.9% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +27.0% | +130.7% | +91.0% | up next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| GMX (GMX) | — | +0.6% | +42.3% | +4.9% | sideways next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −0.5% | +67.0% | +27.9% | sideways next day | |
| Safe (SAFE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +0.9% | +9.0% | −26.0% | sideways next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +5.6% | +146.3% | +111.3% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −0.1% | +54.3% | +18.9% | sideways next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | −2.2% | +120.3% | +86.1% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −1.1% | +107.4% | +79.2% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −12.9% | +94.7% | +74.4% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −13.5% | +4.7% | −13.0% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −14.4% | +28.9% | +11.2% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −2.6% | +21.3% | +9.1% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +9.5% | +84.0% | +79.0% | up next day | |
| Immutable X (IMX) | — | +2.6% | +14.2% | +9.2% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +6.8% | −18.5% | −18.8% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +0.1% | +6.7% | +6.0% | sideways next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +8.9% | +9.5% | +8.1% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −6.4% | +4.6% | +3.2% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | +7.8% | −11.1% | −14.5% | up next day | |
| Compound (COMP) | — | +0.3% | −12.8% | −16.2% | sideways next day | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gnosis (GNO) | — | −1.1% | −4.4% | −5.0% | down next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +30.9% | +34.3% | +26.7% | up next day | |
| Safe (SAFE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +27.8% | +10.6% | +3.0% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +11.0% | +41.2% | +33.7% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +6.8% | −24.5% | −9.3% | up next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +5.8% | +34.9% | +47.6% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +9.4% | −14.4% | −1.8% | up next day | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | −11.1% | −30.2% | −15.6% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +8.5% | −9.5% | +4.0% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +6.2% | −16.5% | −0.7% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −4.3% | −38.7% | −26.5% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −4.5% | −10.6% | −0.1% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +0.5% | −8.5% | −15.7% | sideways next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | −1.5% | +24.7% | +16.8% | down next day | |
| Compound (COMP) | — | −1.4% | −19.5% | −25.0% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −1.9% | −22.7% | −26.7% | down next day | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | — | −5.4% | +18.0% | +20.6% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +11.6% | −20.7% | −18.5% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −2.6% | −26.6% | −20.9% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −8.6% | −13.0% | −7.3% | down next day | |
| Compound (COMP) | — | +4.2% | +0.7% | +5.6% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −2.8% | +28.7% | +42.2% | down next day | |
| Compound (COMP) | — | +11.4% | +22.2% | +21.5% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +5.0% | −24.8% | −25.4% | up next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +7.6% | −22.7% | −26.7% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −3.3% | −30.8% | −25.5% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −18.9% | −21.5% | −8.7% | down next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | −5.5% | −22.2% | −6.0% | down next day | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | +9.6% | −9.3% | −10.5% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +32.0% | +38.4% | +37.2% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −12.2% | +32.0% | +37.4% | down next day | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | +14.7% | +36.5% | +16.6% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +50.2% | +323.0% | +303.1% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −0.2% | +323.4% | +308.6% | sideways next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +10.1% | +270.8% | +255.3% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +3.1% | +374.4% | +357.6% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −3.5% | +42.4% | +24.9% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −9.2% | +366.5% | +349.0% | down next day | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | −15.9% | +86.4% | +71.5% | down next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +27.7% | +103.5% | +91.1% | up next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +1.4% | +62.1% | +52.7% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +0.6% | +181.4% | +172.0% | sideways next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −2.5% | +11.7% | +17.6% | down next day | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | 0.0% | +53.1% | +61.5% | sideways next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −22.3% | +16.9% | +40.7% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −9.3% | −12.1% | +16.4% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | −0.1% | −32.1% | −3.6% | sideways next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | +8.1% | −7.1% | +24.2% | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | — | +3.5% | −44.8% | −12.4% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | +2.1% | −9.3% | +22.6% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +0.4% | −26.0% | +9.4% | sideways next day | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | −12.9% | −59.5% | −22.3% | down next day | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | — | +7.8% | +12.2% | +43.9% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −2.8% | −54.6% | −20.7% | down next day | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | −3.0% | −68.9% | −37.2% | down next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | +49.6% | −16.9% | −14.6% | up next day | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | — | −14.8% | −60.2% | −35.4% | down next day | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | +12.8% | −60.4% | −39.4% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −6.4% | −19.8% | +5.3% | down next day | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | +5.8% | −63.4% | −37.8% | up next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | +9.8% | +122.4% | +108.1% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −8.1% | +29.9% | +11.0% | down next day | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | −7.3% | +7.2% | −11.7% | down next day | |
| Floki Inu (FLOKI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Floki Inu (FLOKI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gnosis (GNO) | — | +13.6% | +6.2% | +3.2% | up next day | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | −3.5% | −32.1% | −36.7% | down next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | +5.4% | −35.1% | −33.9% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | +3.7% | −34.7% | −33.5% | up next day | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | — | +25.9% | −25.8% | −29.8% | up next day | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | — | +0.6% | −3.7% | −9.7% | sideways next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 142 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 54% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 76 of the 142 measured past cases of governance votes of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 47% to 60% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 142.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 53% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 54% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 155 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every governance vote with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.