PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
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Pattern · governance votes · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-25

Governance votes of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average: all 145 measured cases

governance vote category · othersize · midbtc trend · downheld up on recent cases 145 cases on record last 5 cases: 0 up

Explained and tested in our research: What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a governance vote?

higher the next day

39%

57 of 145 past cases

39% of past cases were higher (90% range 33-46%)

90% range 33%–46%

higher after 30 days

33%

48 of 145 cases measured after 30 days

33% of past cases were higher (90% range 27-40%)

90% range 27%–40% · typical move −9.2%

typical next day
−1.0%
typical after 30 days
−9.2%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
−13.6%
best after 30 days
+53.2%
worst after 30 days
−48.0%
30 days: up · sideways · down
40 · 27 · 78

recent-cases check · held up: 44% → 33% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

VOTEall governance votes against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
0−3…+3
7 days
0−3…+3
30 days
+2−2…+5

No clear edge 1, 7 or 30 days later: no 95% range clears the same coins' ordinary days with both halves of history agreeing (1,308 cases on 893 separate days). Coin by coin, it is a likely driver on 1 coin.

Every past governance vote, 30 days on 145 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 39 rose · ▼ 73 fell · ◆ 33 sideways (±8.7% over 30 days)

Each line is one past governance vote: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · 80 of the 145 cases measured that far, evenly through their dates · past cases, not a projection

Governance votes of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average: 145 of the 145 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 57 of those 145 closed higher — a base rate of 39%, with a 90% range of 33% to 46%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up145 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

Governance votes of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average: 145 of the 145 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 57 of those 145 closed higher — a base rate of 39%, with a 90% range of 33% to 46%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.

  • By day 30, 48 of the 145 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (33%).
  • The typical day-30 move was −9.2%, the best +53.2% and the worst −48.0%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −13.6% vs BTC and beat it in 20.0% of 145 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 44% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 33% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled governance vote can be matched to this pattern before it happens.

Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Governance votes of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories →

Every past case145 cases

Every past governance vote behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 145 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

145 past cases of governance votes of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with btc below its 50-day average, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2025
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −0.3% −32.3% −17.7% sideways next day
2024
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −3.9% −2.0% −3.7% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −5.6% −6.8% −27.6% down next day
2023
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −1.5% +2.6% −21.8% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −3.3% −10.5% −19.5% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.4% −9.8% −16.6% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.5% −2.5% −4.9% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.2% −4.3% −12.8% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −0.2% −5.2% −11.4% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −0.6% −4.5% −12.4% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −4.4% −9.2% −8.0% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −4.9% −10.5% −7.6% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.9% −8.2% −11.6% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −1.2% −11.3% −11.6% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −0.3% −10.2% −11.9% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −0.1% −10.4% −13.1% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −1.4% −11.9% −11.6% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −4.6% −22.0% −12.2% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −1.9% −17.3% −4.4% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −1.1% −17.7% −6.4% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −2.6% −20.5% −7.3% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +3.5% −13.8% −7.1% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.4% +11.0% −3.4% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +2.7% +13.2% −7.3% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −5.6% +5.5% −13.0% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −10.0% −2.8% −17.6% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +5.2% −5.3% −19.5% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +7.6% −2.4% −14.8% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −3.1% −9.3% −19.3% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +1.0% +4.5% −10.5% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −1.4% −23.6% −23.5% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −2.5% −24.1% −20.8% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.7% −27.5% −21.7% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −0.4% −24.5% −20.6% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +4.0% −15.3% −11.1% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −4.0% −1.9% −30.7% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −1.3% −2.7% −27.8% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −1.1% −3.9% −30.0% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.1% −1.9% −26.3% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −2.8% −3.4% −23.4% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +3.3% +30.0% −10.9% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +1.1% +29.0% −13.9% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.4% +27.2% −12.6% sideways next day
2022
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −0.8% +24.4% −13.1% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −1.0% +28.2% −14.5% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +1.4% +27.1% −12.0% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −3.1% +21.5% −16.6% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −4.9% +19.5% −16.5% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −0.6% +19.2% −17.8% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −2.2% +15.0% −19.4% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −1.8% +15.5% −21.1% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.4% +10.8% −24.6% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −3.2% +9.8% −24.4% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +7.2% +13.8% −13.6% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −12.9% +1.3% −16.4% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −3.9% −9.4% −18.9% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −4.2% −11.7% −16.7% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −0.3% −14.4% −14.6% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −0.7% −20.7% −18.3% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +1.2% −20.1% −16.5% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.9% −16.3% −18.7% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −0.1% −17.0% −18.4% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +7.4% −9.2% −12.6% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −4.4% −12.5% −4.9% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.2% −14.9% +0.6% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +4.1% −11.4% −0.0% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +4.8% −9.4% +3.9% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −2.7% +3.1% −1.7% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −3.1% +3.1% −0.9% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −3.9% −0.7% −6.1% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +2.6% −2.3% −2.5% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — 0.0% −0.5% −1.4% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +6.4% +3.7% −0.3% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +7.7% +13.2% +15.4% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +5.2% +9.8% +9.2% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −4.4% +14.8% +26.3% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −1.2% +13.5% +22.8% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +9.3% +20.8% +27.0% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +3.0% +35.4% +19.7% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +3.8% +35.7% +17.6% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −2.2% +34.0% +26.8% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.4% +32.0% +20.4% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.3% +27.8% +9.7% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +2.7% +27.7% +7.0% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −0.2% +30.0% +13.2% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −1.8% −3.8% −4.2% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −8.2% +0.1% +6.0% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −1.6% −28.9% +1.7% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −2.3% −28.1% +3.0% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −2.0% −29.2% +7.4% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −0.6% −32.3% −4.9% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +4.9% −32.7% −3.1% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +9.8% −31.6% −2.0% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −4.4% −36.4% −4.7% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.8% −30.7% −2.7% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +1.2% −6.5% −4.2% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −5.8% −38.8% −25.9% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −4.4% −45.2% −20.4% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +1.8% −43.0% −21.7% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +1.9% −43.0% −22.1% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.4% −38.0% −20.3% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −12.7% −46.1% −20.3% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +2.7% −46.4% −21.2% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −1.7% −48.0% −21.2% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −1.4% −46.2% −19.3% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −2.4% +38.6% +37.9% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −4.2% +44.2% +35.3% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −3.9% +35.1% +31.8% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −2.9% +28.5% +26.5% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −5.1% +38.3% +36.4% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +3.3% +49.2% +34.8% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −1.6% +38.5% +26.1% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −2.6% +53.2% +37.7% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −5.8% +48.3% +39.0% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +5.5% +33.6% +12.3% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +2.9% +28.2% +6.0% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −3.2% +7.3% −12.2% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −12.1% −1.7% −17.6% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −2.3% −5.7% −17.4% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −11.6% −10.7% −16.4% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −0.9% −20.2% −22.0% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +2.8% −29.4% −22.5% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +3.2% −26.2% −19.8% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −3.1% −28.7% −15.5% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −5.9% −22.1% −23.3% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −2.0% −11.0% −21.3% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +2.2% −6.4% −22.7% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +3.5% −4.1% −18.5% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.4% −13.8% −15.2% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −4.3% −13.0% −19.3% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −6.0% −13.7% −19.8% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −2.2% −17.3% −21.8% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −8.4% −23.0% −24.5% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −26.8% −28.4% −22.8% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −6.3% −30.5% −26.5% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +6.7% −28.9% −27.7% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +7.4% −26.6% −25.4% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +0.1% −28.8% −28.0% sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +9.1% −22.4% −26.4% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +1.6% −22.1% −27.8% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — +3.0% −18.7% −24.1% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −7.8% −25.5% −23.8% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −7.4% −29.9% −25.1% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −7.7% −34.7% −25.4% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) — −7.1% −40.4% −20.7% down next day

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 145 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answered from this count

What does the 39% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 57 of the 145 measured past cases of governance votes of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 33% to 46% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 145.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 44% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 33% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 145 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every governance vote with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.