How often it went up14 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Unlocks of small-cap tokens: 14 of the 14 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 6 of those 14 closed higher — a base rate of 43%, with a 90% range of 24% to 64%, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- By day 30, 6 of the 11 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (55%).
- The typical day-30 move was +2.8%, the best +74.2% and the worst −42.7%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran +5.4% vs BTC and beat it in 54.5% of 11 comparable cases.
- No recent-cases check yet: it needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 14 as of Oct 4, 2026.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET No scheduled unlock meets every condition of this pattern as of Oct 4, 2026.
Every past case14 cases
Every past unlock behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 14 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Falcon Finance (FF) | 0.9% of circ. | −10.3% | in 27 days | in 27 days | down next day | |
| KAITO (KAITO) | 0.7% of circ. | +14.4% | in 13 days | in 13 days | up next day | |
| KAITO (KAITO) | 2.1% of circ. | −2.4% | in 11 days | in 11 days | down next day | |
| Falcon Finance (FF) | 0.9% of circ. | +22.9% | +43.5% | +35.4% | up next day | |
| KAITO (KAITO) | 7.7% of circ. | +12.0% | −0.1% | −17.3% | up next day | |
| Falcon Finance (FF) | 1.2% of circ. | +0.2% | +32.3% | +7.4% | sideways next day | |
| Falcon Finance (FF) | 0.7% of circ. | +11.9% | +7.3% | +5.4% | up next day | |
| Humanity (H) | 0.8% of circ. | −2.5% | +29.6% | +30.0% | down next day | |
| Falcon Finance (FF) | 1.1% of circ. | −10.0% | −5.6% | −12.9% | down next day | |
| Humanity (H) | 29.4% of circ. | −7.3% | −2.2% | −7.6% | down next day | |
| Falcon Finance (FF) | 1.1% of circ. | −5.3% | −37.5% | −18.9% | down next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | 1.2% of circ. | +3.9% | −42.7% | −21.8% | up next day | |
| Falcon Finance (FF) | 1.0% of circ. | −2.0% | +74.2% | +82.9% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Four (FORM) | 5.8% of circ. | −0.3% | +2.8% | +7.0% | sideways next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 14 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 43% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 6 of the 14 measured past cases of unlocks of small-cap tokens closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 24% to 64% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 14.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- Nothing yet — the split needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 14.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 14 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every unlock with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.