How often it went up20 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Unlocks of small-cap tokens outside the big categories over 2% of supply: 20 of the 20 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 8 of those 20 closed higher — a base rate of 40%, with a 90% range of 24% to 58%, counted as of Oct 5, 2026.
- By day 30, 4 of the 17 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (24%).
- The typical day-30 move was −8.2%, the best +52.1% and the worst −32.1%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −10.1% vs BTC and beat it in 29.4% of 17 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 42% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 38% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD8 scheduled
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
8 scheduled unlocks meet every condition of this pattern. Each one is dated, and its move is measured from that day.
| Date | Token | Event | Size | When | Its odds come from |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| io.net (IO) | IO unlock: about 12.79M tokens (~3.12% of circulating), projected | 3.1% | in 27 days | this pattern | |
| io.net (IO) | IO unlock: about 12.79M tokens (~3.12% of circulating), projected | 3.1% | in 57 days | this pattern | |
| Starknet (STRK) | STRK unlock: about 160.56M tokens (~2.16% of circulating), projected | 2.2% | in 72 days | this pattern | |
| io.net (IO) | IO unlock: about 12.79M tokens (~3.12% of circulating), projected | 3.1% | in 88 days | this pattern | |
| io.net (IO) | IO unlock: about 12.79M tokens (~3.12% of circulating), projected | 3.1% | in 119 days | this pattern | |
| io.net (IO) | IO unlock: about 12.79M tokens (~3.12% of circulating), projected | 3.1% | in 147 days | this pattern | |
| Starknet (STRK) | STRK unlock: about 160.56M tokens (~2.16% of circulating), projected | 2.2% | in 162 days | this pattern | |
| io.net (IO) | IO unlock: about 12.79M tokens (~3.12% of circulating), projected | 3.1% | in 178 days | this pattern |
Every past case20 cases
Every past unlock behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 20 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| io.net (IO) | 3.2% of circ. | −5.5% | in 26 days | in 26 days | down next day | |
| Starknet (STRK) | 2.3% of circ. | +8.8% | in 11 days | in 11 days | up next day | |
| KAITO (KAITO) | 2.1% of circ. | −2.4% | in 10 days | in 10 days | down next day | |
| io.net (IO) | 3.3% of circ. | −0.2% | +22.1% | +14.1% | sideways next day | |
| KAITO (KAITO) | 7.7% of circ. | +12.0% | −0.1% | −17.3% | up next day | |
| io.net (IO) | 3.5% of circ. | −1.1% | −3.3% | −28.3% | down next day | |
| io.net (IO) | 3.6% of circ. | +3.4% | −19.5% | −26.7% | up next day | |
| Humanity (H) | 29.4% of circ. | −7.3% | −2.2% | −7.6% | down next day | |
| Starknet (STRK) | 2.5% of circ. | −5.2% | −22.3% | −18.5% | down next day | |
| io.net (IO) | 3.9% of circ. | −4.8% | −11.5% | +7.0% | down next day | |
| io.net (IO) | 4.0% of circ. | +4.9% | +52.1% | +55.6% | up next day | |
| io.net (IO) | 4.3% of circ. | −4.7% | +10.1% | −4.5% | down next day | |
| Starknet (STRK) | 2.9% of circ. | +1.5% | −13.6% | −16.3% | up next day | |
| io.net (IO) | 4.5% of circ. | 0.0% | −1.8% | −3.8% | sideways next day | |
| io.net (IO) | 4.8% of circ. | +2.5% | −8.2% | +5.0% | up next day | |
| io.net (IO) | 5.1% of circ. | +9.2% | −20.3% | −10.1% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Starknet (STRK) | 3.4% of circ. | −10.8% | −14.3% | −25.0% | down next day | |
| io.net (IO) | 5.5% of circ. | −3.6% | −30.5% | −27.5% | down next day | |
| io.net (IO) | 5.8% of circ. | +5.7% | −32.1% | −10.8% | up next day | |
| Four (FORM) | 5.8% of circ. | −0.3% | +2.8% | +7.0% | sideways next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 20 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and unlock size), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 40% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 8 of the 20 measured past cases of unlocks of small-cap tokens outside the big categories over 2% of supply closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 5, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 24% to 58% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 20.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 42% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 38% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 20 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every unlock with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.