How often it went up21 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 21 of the 36 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 10 of those 21 closed higher — a base rate of 48%, with a 90% range of 31% to 65%, counted as of Oct 3, 2026.
- By day 30, 5 of the 22 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (23%).
- The typical day-30 move was −27.1%, the best +445.8% and the worst −73.5%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −19.6% vs BTC and beat it in 9.1% of 22 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 46% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled spot listing can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Listings of micro-cap tokens →
Every past case36 cases
Every past spot listing behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 36 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Solstice (SLX) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Nesa (NES) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Irys (IRYS) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gensyn (AI) | OKX | +0.7% | −27.4% | −8.9% | sideways next day | |
| OpenGradient (OPG) | Binance | +0.9% | −26.8% | −8.4% | sideways next day | |
| Based (BASED) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Katana Network (KAT) | Binance | — | −30.7% | −31.0% | not measured yet | |
| Fabric Protocol (ROBO) | OKX | −3.1% | −55.6% | −48.2% | down next day | |
| Fabric Protocol (ROBO) | Binance | −2.8% | −55.8% | −53.8% | down next day | |
| USAT (USAT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Spacecoin (SPACE) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| HumidiFi (WET) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) | Binance | −8.8% | −26.9% | −15.7% | down next day | |
| Doodles (DOOD) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Succinct (PROVE) | OKX | +1.8% | −33.9% | −21.1% | up next day | |
| Zora (ZORA) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Yield Basis (YB) | OKX | −15.8% | −35.9% | −19.5% | down next day | |
| Linea (LINEA) | OKX | +0.5% | −23.6% | −24.7% | sideways next day | |
| WalletConnect Token (WCT) | OKX | +52.7% | +77.4% | +54.7% | up next day | |
| Big Time (BIGTIME) | Binance | −2.4% | +11.1% | −19.7% | down next day | |
| Babylon (BABY) | OKX | +31.6% | +13.4% | −13.5% | up next day | |
| Wayfinder (PROMPT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Babylon (BABY) | Binance | +31.6% | +13.4% | −13.5% | up next day | |
| TUTORIAL (TUT) | Binance | −12.7% | −41.2% | −50.1% | down next day | |
| NAVI Protocol (NAVX) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Particle Network (PARTI) | OKX | +4.7% | −46.4% | −53.8% | up next day | |
| Test (TST) | Binance | −26.1% | −73.5% | −59.5% | down next day | |
| Berachain (BERA) | OKX | −11.7% | −22.3% | −11.6% | down next day | |
| aixbt by Virtuals (AIXBT) | Binance | −1.7% | −55.0% | −59.2% | down next day | |
| Cookie (COOKIE) | Binance | −11.8% | −72.1% | −76.4% | down next day | |
| Sonic SVM (SONIC) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| First Neiro On Ethereum (NEIRO) | Binance | +91.6% | +445.8% | +431.4% | up next day | |
| Pixels (PIXEL) | OKX | −3.0% | −2.9% | −5.1% | down next day | |
| zkSync (ZK) | OKX | +5.3% | −21.5% | −17.7% | up next day | |
| Zentry (ZENT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| cat in a dogs world (MEW) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 21 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 48% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 10 of the 21 measured past cases of listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 3, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 31% to 65% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 21.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 46% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 36 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every spot listing with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.