How often it went up29 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Binance listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 29 of the 31 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 13 of those 29 closed higher — a base rate of 45%, with a 90% range of 31% to 60%, counted as of Oct 3, 2026.
- By day 30, 8 of the 28 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (29%).
- The typical day-30 move was −29.2%, the best +231.8% and the worst −64.8%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −32.8% vs BTC and beat it in 25.0% of 28 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 41% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled spot listing can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Binance listings of tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case31 cases
Every past spot listing behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 31 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | Binance | +0.3% | in 21 days | in 21 days | sideways next day | |
| Metadium (META) | Binance | — | in 15 days | in 15 days | not measured yet | |
| Stacks (STX) | Binance | +25.5% | in 15 days | in 15 days | up next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | Binance | −3.8% | −13.5% | −12.0% | down next day | |
| MegaETH (MEGA) | Binance | −4.2% | −62.1% | −59.6% | down next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | Binance | +84.0% | −21.6% | −24.0% | up next day | |
| Centrifuge (CFG) | Binance | −14.1% | +8.6% | +5.9% | down next day | |
| Panther Protocol (ZKP) | Binance | −24.2% | −61.4% | −36.7% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Aster (ASTER) | Binance | −0.9% | −48.1% | −32.2% | sideways next day | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | Binance | −18.2% | −52.6% | −48.7% | down next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | Binance | +5.5% | −36.2% | −33.3% | up next day | |
| USD1 (USD1) | Binance | +0.0% | −0.0% | +6.8% | sideways next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | Binance | +2.3% | +61.3% | +54.1% | up next day | |
| Kamino (KMNO) | Binance | −17.5% | −35.4% | −42.5% | down next day | |
| OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) | Binance | −21.5% | −64.8% | −56.3% | down next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Magic Eden (ME) | Binance | −4.3% | −52.7% | −47.9% | down next day | |
| Movement (MOVE) | Binance | +0.6% | +22.8% | +28.8% | sideways next day | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | Binance | −9.0% | −42.9% | −44.3% | down next day | |
| Orca (ORCA) | Binance | −10.3% | −41.0% | −42.5% | down next day | |
| Act I : The AI Prophecy (ACT) | Binance | +24.9% | +22.2% | −3.7% | up next day | |
| Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) | Binance | +13.1% | +231.8% | +206.0% | up next day | |
| CoW Protocol Token (COW) | Binance | −1.7% | −2.3% | −46.1% | down next day | |
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | Binance | +29.8% | +47.1% | +3.3% | up next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | Binance | — | −26.3% | −36.6% | not measured yet | |
| zkSync (ZK) | Binance | +3.4% | −21.7% | −17.9% | up next day | |
| BitTensor (TAO) | Binance | −13.8% | −39.9% | −26.0% | down next day | |
| Tensor (TNSR) | Binance | +10.1% | −53.1% | −41.3% | up next day | |
| BOOK OF MEME (BOME) | Binance | −11.3% | −59.5% | −50.8% | down next day | |
| Metis Token (METIS) | Binance | −1.8% | −32.1% | −34.5% | down next day | |
| dogwifhat (WIF) | Binance | +19.3% | +129.2% | +128.8% | up next day | |
| Axelar (AXL) | Binance | −0.6% | +4.6% | −12.0% | sideways next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 29 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, venue and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 45% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 13 of the 29 measured past cases of binance listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 3, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 31% to 60% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 29.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 41% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 31 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every spot listing with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.