How often it went up35 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Funding extreme lows of small-cap L1 and L2 tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 35 of the 35 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 15 of those 35 closed higher — a base rate of 43%, with a 90% range of 30% to 57%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 13 of the 30 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (43%).
- The typical day-30 move was −3.1%, the best +53.9% and the worst −46.5%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −4.8% vs BTC and beat it in 36.7% of 30 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 43% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 43% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 2 days ago · CFX Conflux Network next day −14.6% · 30 days lands
- 3 days ago · BAT Basic Attention Token next day +8.5% · 30 days lands
- 11 days ago · MANA Decentraland next day +3.2% · 7 days −5.7% · 30 days lands
- 24 days ago · XTZ Tezos next day −7.4% · 7 days −12.5% · 30 days lands
- 29 days ago · IOTA IOTA next day −10.3% · 7 days +12.1% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme low can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme lows of small-cap L1 and L2 tokens →
Every past case35 cases
Every past funding extreme low behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 35 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Conflux Network (CFX) | — | −14.6% | in 28 days | in 28 days | down next day | |
| Basic Attention Token (BAT) | — | +8.5% | in 27 days | in 27 days | up next day | |
| Decentraland (MANA) | — | +3.2% | in 19 days | in 19 days | up next day | |
| Tezos (XTZ) | — | −7.4% | in 6 days | in 6 days | down next day | |
| IOTA (IOTA) | — | −10.3% | tomorrow | tomorrow | down next day | |
| THETA (THETA) | — | +6.6% | +8.3% | +2.3% | up next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +6.0% | +36.9% | +28.8% | up next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | −6.6% | −1.7% | −7.0% | down next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | +3.6% | +6.7% | −11.7% | up next day | |
| Decentraland (MANA) | — | +1.7% | +16.2% | −5.6% | up next day | |
| IOTA (IOTA) | — | −0.6% | +23.7% | +1.4% | sideways next day | |
| NEO (NEO) | — | −0.7% | −12.0% | −19.1% | sideways next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | −1.0% | −12.2% | −13.1% | down next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | −0.5% | −22.2% | −4.0% | sideways next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | −1.7% | −20.1% | −3.9% | down next day | |
| Conflux Network (CFX) | — | +5.7% | −30.9% | −5.7% | up next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | −3.1% | −25.0% | −16.3% | down next day | |
| Stable (STABLE) | — | +2.7% | +16.1% | +16.3% | up next day | |
| THETA (THETA) | — | +17.5% | +11.5% | +7.0% | up next day | |
| Stable (STABLE) | — | −1.3% | +53.9% | +44.9% | down next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +1.6% | +32.8% | +22.6% | up next day | |
| Conflux Network (CFX) | — | −2.3% | +26.2% | +14.7% | down next day | |
| THETA (THETA) | — | −1.3% | +34.8% | +14.6% | down next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | −4.4% | +10.1% | +0.4% | down next day | |
| Basic Attention Token (BAT) | — | −6.5% | −4.4% | −14.2% | down next day | |
| Monad (MON) | — | −2.6% | +36.7% | +31.2% | down next day | |
| Stable (STABLE) | — | −3.1% | −6.3% | −6.7% | down next day | |
| NEO (NEO) | — | −0.6% | −0.6% | −3.4% | sideways next day | |
| Starknet (STRK) | — | +5.1% | −18.3% | −22.4% | up next day | |
| Decentraland (MANA) | — | −0.7% | −35.7% | −6.6% | sideways next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +13.8% | −40.8% | −13.4% | up next day | |
| Basic Attention Token (BAT) | — | +5.2% | −32.0% | −5.7% | up next day | |
| THETA (THETA) | — | −5.3% | −44.1% | −11.1% | down next day | |
| Basic Attention Token (BAT) | — | +3.2% | −46.5% | −30.1% | up next day | |
| IOTA (IOTA) | — | +10.7% | −16.5% | −3.1% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 35 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 43% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 15 of the 35 measured past cases of funding extreme lows of small-cap L1 and L2 tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 30% to 57% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 35.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 43% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 43% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 35 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every funding extreme low with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.