PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
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Pattern · funding extreme lows · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-14

Funding extreme lows of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: all 219 measured cases

funding extreme low size · smallbtc trend · up⚠ flipped on recent cases 225 cases on record last 5 cases: 2 up

Explained and tested in our research: What happens to a coin in the 30 days after an extreme low in funding?

higher the next day

44%

97 of 219 past cases

44% of past cases were higher (90% range 39-50%)

90% range 39%–50%

higher after 30 days

46%

91 of 197 cases measured after 30 days

46% of past cases were higher (90% range 40-52%)

90% range 40%–52% · typical move −2.9%

typical next day
−0.7%
typical after 30 days
−2.9%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
−5.3%
best after 30 days
+180.0%
worst after 30 days
−94.7%
30 days: up · sideways · down
78 · 29 · 90

⚠ recent-cases check · flipped: 40% → 50% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

FUNDING LOWall funding extreme lows against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
−4−9…+2
7 days
0−6…+6
30 days
+10+4…+16

After funding extreme lows, the price was higher 30 days later in 43% of 1,174 cases on 247 separate days, against 33% of the same coins' ordinary days: +10 points (95% range +4 to +16; older half +5, newer half +15). Coin by coin, it is a likely driver on 1 coin.

Every past funding extreme low, 30 days on 197 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 68 rose · ▼ 83 fell · ◆ 46 sideways (±11% over 30 days)

Each line is one past funding extreme low: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · 80 of the 197 cases measured that far, evenly through their dates · past cases, not a projection

Funding extreme lows of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 219 of the 225 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 97 of those 219 closed higher — a base rate of 44%, with a 90% range of 39% to 50%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up219 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

Funding extreme lows of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 219 of the 225 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 97 of those 219 closed higher — a base rate of 44%, with a 90% range of 39% to 50%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.

  • By day 30, 91 of the 197 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (46%).
  • The typical day-30 move was −2.9%, the best +180.0% and the worst −94.7%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −5.3% vs BTC and beat it in 38.6% of 197 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 40% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running

  • yesterday · PENGU Pudgy Penguins 30 days lands
  • yesterday · RSR Reserve Rights 30 days lands
  • 2 days ago · CFX Conflux Network next day −14.6% · 30 days lands
  • 2 days ago · CKB Nervos Network next day −19.0% · 30 days lands
  • 3 days ago · BAT Basic Attention Token next day +8.5% · 30 days lands
  • 4 days ago · PENDLE Pendle next day +4.3% · 30 days lands

NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme low can be matched to this pattern before it happens.

Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme lows of small-cap tokens →

Every past case225 cases

Every past funding extreme low behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 225 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

225 past cases of funding extreme lows of small-cap tokens with btc above its 50-day average, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2026
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) — — in 29 days in 29 days not measured yet
Reserve Rights (RSR) — — in 29 days in 29 days not measured yet
Conflux Network (CFX) — −14.6% in 28 days in 28 days down next day
Nervos Network (CKB) — −19.0% in 28 days in 28 days down next day
Basic Attention Token (BAT) — +8.5% in 27 days in 27 days up next day
Pendle (PENDLE) — +4.3% in 26 days in 26 days up next day
Kaia (KAIA) — −14.0% in 26 days in 26 days down next day
Tellor (TRB) — +4.4% in 25 days in 25 days up next day
Meteora (MET) — −8.3% in 24 days in 24 days down next day
Mina Protocol (MINA) — −14.5% in 24 days in 24 days down next day
Ordinals (ORDI) — −5.9% in 24 days in 24 days down next day
VeThor Token (VTHO) — −7.9% in 23 days in 23 days down next day
The Sandbox (SAND) — +10.1% in 19 days in 19 days up next day
Decentraland (MANA) — +3.2% in 19 days in 19 days up next day
Numeraire (NMR) — −6.7% in 16 days in 16 days down next day
Meteora (MET) — −4.1% in 15 days in 15 days down next day
Bedrock DAO (BR) — −9.3% in 13 days in 13 days down next day
DoubleZero (2Z) — −6.7% in 13 days in 13 days down next day
Tezos (XTZ) — −7.4% in 6 days in 6 days down next day
MultiversX (Elrond) (EGLD) — −8.8% in 5 days in 5 days down next day
ONEchain (ONE) — — in 4 days in 4 days not measured yet
Meteora (MET) — +15.1% in 2 days in 2 days up next day
Zilliqa (ZIL) — +4.7% in 2 days in 2 days up next day
Axelar (AXL) — −1.4% in 2 days in 2 days down next day
IOTA (IOTA) — −10.3% tomorrow tomorrow down next day
Lisk (LSK) — +16.6% −36.9% −44.5% up next day
Plasma (XPL) — −5.6% −2.3% −8.2% down next day
THETA (THETA) — +6.6% +8.3% +2.3% up next day
Blur (BLUR) — +0.9% −22.1% −28.1% sideways next day
Fluid (FLUID) — +5.5% +100.3% +90.9% up next day
VeThor Token (VTHO) — +14.8% +27.5% +18.1% up next day
GMX (GMX) — +6.9% +14.1% +4.6% up next day
Nervos Network (CKB) — +6.9% +83.5% +74.1% up next day
Orca (ORCA) — −5.8% +52.0% +48.7% down next day
The Graph (GRT) — −1.3% +40.4% +36.7% down next day
SafePal Token (SFP) — −4.0% −1.6% −5.3% down next day
MultiversX (Elrond) (EGLD) — −2.9% −3.4% −9.9% down next day
Threshold Network (T) — −19.4% +3.6% −6.0% down next day
Unibase (UB) — +8.7% +12.6% +3.0% up next day
Optimism (OP) — +6.0% +36.9% +28.8% up next day
Useless Coin (USELESS) — +36.8% +162.1% +154.1% up next day
Mina Protocol (MINA) — +5.6% +145.8% +138.5% up next day
Monad (MON) — −6.6% −1.7% −7.0% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −0.6% +31.7% +24.8% sideways next day
The Sandbox (SAND) — −0.5% +0.2% −6.6% sideways next day
Ontology (ONT) — −3.9% +12.5% +2.0% down next day
Meteora (MET) — +4.8% +21.6% +10.5% up next day
Gala (GALA) — +54.2% +35.8% +18.6% up next day
RedStone (RED) — +12.7% +57.6% +32.6% up next day
Monad (MON) — +3.6% +6.7% −11.7% up next day
Plasma (XPL) — +3.3% +8.2% −13.5% up next day
ONEchain (ONE) — — — — not measured yet
Decentraland (MANA) — +1.7% +16.2% −5.6% up next day
GMX (GMX) — +1.7% +20.6% −1.2% up next day
Prometeus (PROM) — +40.1% +179.7% +158.3% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — +4.0% +32.2% +11.5% up next day
KAITO (KAITO) — −8.1% −54.6% −75.4% down next day
Bonk (BONK) — −2.0% +26.5% +4.7% down next day
Kamino (KMNO) — −6.1% +29.4% +7.5% down next day
Chiliz (CHZ) — +0.5% +7.8% −15.7% sideways next day
Unibase (UB) — −2.5% −2.8% −26.2% down next day
Allora (ALLO) — +20.8% −1.6% −25.8% up next day
IOTA (IOTA) — −0.6% +23.7% +1.4% sideways next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) — +3.4% +14.9% −7.4% up next day
Meteora (MET) — +2.3% +23.3% +1.5% up next day
Ordinals (ORDI) — −2.0% +23.4% +1.6% down next day
SafePal Token (SFP) — −2.1% +28.5% +2.6% down next day
Sonic (S) — −7.4% +36.6% +15.8% down next day
Livepeer (LPT) — −8.2% −6.6% −27.4% down next day
Allora (ALLO) — −3.0% −23.0% −43.8% down next day
Wormhole (W) — −2.1% +4.0% −18.0% down next day
The Sandbox (SAND) — +2.7% −5.1% −28.3% up next day
The Graph (GRT) — +2.0% +12.3% −10.9% up next day
Vaulta (A) — +1.8% +16.6% −6.5% up next day
Prometeus (PROM) — +4.9% +60.9% +41.5% up next day
Zilliqa (ZIL) — +3.9% +11.3% −5.3% up next day
ONEchain (ONE) — — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) — −5.7% +4.4% −13.3% down next day
NEO (NEO) — −0.7% −12.0% −19.1% sideways next day
Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) — +2.7% +4.7% +4.8% up next day
Floki Inu (FLOKI) — +2.4% −4.2% −4.0% up next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) — +5.0% −5.0% −4.9% up next day
DeXe (DEXE) — +0.3% −94.7% −94.5% sideways next day
SafePal Token (SFP) — +0.1% +12.8% +13.0% sideways next day
Meteora (MET) — +11.9% +25.9% +24.9% up next day
Optimism (OP) — −1.0% −12.2% −13.1% down next day
Wormhole (W) — −3.5% −12.2% −13.2% down next day
Chiliz (CHZ) — −7.1% −24.0% −24.9% down next day
Plasma (XPL) — −4.2% −13.3% −11.9% down next day
Bonk (BONK) — +0.5% −37.9% −39.8% sideways next day
Chiliz (CHZ) — −0.7% −47.6% −26.8% sideways next day
SuperVerse (SUPER) — −9.5% −32.9% −12.1% down next day
Optimism (OP) — −0.5% −22.2% −4.0% sideways next day
Pendle (PENDLE) — +1.6% −30.8% −12.5% up next day
Gala (GALA) — +0.3% −26.2% −8.0% sideways next day
Prometeus (PROM) — +7.2% +1.9% +19.1% up next day
Four (FORM) — +5.8% +4.9% +22.2% up next day
Ontology (ONT) — −1.9% −26.4% −9.1% down next day
Plasma (XPL) — +4.2% +16.8% +35.1% up next day
Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) — −1.1% −28.7% −12.0% down next day
THORChain (RUNE) — +1.6% −5.6% +11.1% up next day
SafePal Token (SFP) — −2.4% −12.1% +4.6% down next day
Vaulta (A) — −3.1% −13.4% +2.5% down next day
Monad (MON) — −1.7% −20.1% −3.9% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −9.0% −30.8% −11.9% down next day
Pendle (PENDLE) — +1.2% −32.4% −13.7% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −7.7% −35.6% −13.4% down next day
Qtum (QTUM) — −1.3% −34.5% −9.3% down next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) — −4.2% −22.9% −1.6% down next day
dogwifhat (WIF) — +1.4% −31.4% −6.1% up next day
Jito (JTO) — +32.5% +19.0% +44.2% up next day
io.net (IO) — +11.8% −9.0% +16.2% up next day
Terra Classic (LUNC) — −2.1% −33.7% −8.4% down next day
Ontology (ONT) — +2.0% −28.5% −3.2% up next day
Conflux Network (CFX) — +5.7% −30.9% −5.7% up next day
MegaETH (MEGA) — −8.7% −60.5% −45.3% down next day
Monad (MON) — −3.1% −25.0% −16.3% down next day
Gala (GALA) — −4.0% −2.8% +5.9% down next day
Unibase (UB) — +120.8% +180.0% +183.5% up next day
Plasma (XPL) — −5.2% −7.5% −3.7% down next day
Hypurr (PURR) — −8.7% +34.5% +39.4% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) — −8.8% −20.5% −15.6% down next day
Orca (ORCA) — +21.8% −4.3% +1.0% up next day
Mina Protocol (MINA) — −3.9% −11.9% −6.6% down next day
Nervos Network (CKB) — −7.0% −18.1% −12.8% down next day
OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) — −1.6% −21.7% −19.5% down next day
Safe (SAFE) — −8.6% −11.7% −9.5% down next day
Four (FORM) — −3.3% −12.7% −10.5% down next day
DeXe (DEXE) — +4.0% +18.9% +21.0% up next day
Stable (STABLE) — +2.7% +16.1% +16.3% up next day
RedStone (RED) — −5.8% −2.9% −2.8% down next day
MegaETH (MEGA) — +1.8% −51.9% −50.4% up next day
dogwifhat (WIF) — −0.6% +4.5% +6.0% sideways next day
Meteora (MET) — −11.8% −25.1% −23.3% down next day
Plasma (XPL) — −1.3% −16.0% −21.1% down next day
BOOK OF MEME (BOME) — −4.0% +9.4% +4.4% down next day
SPX6900 (SPX) — +10.7% +20.0% +14.9% up next day
SafePal Token (SFP) — +2.3% −7.6% −12.7% up next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −2.1% +34.2% +32.6% down next day
Prometeus (PROM) — −6.7% −55.3% −56.8% down next day
Compound (COMP) — +0.3% −10.6% −12.1% sideways next day
Ordinals (ORDI) — −40.7% −51.8% −54.9% down next day
Axelar (AXL) — −7.4% −14.1% −17.2% down next day
BIO Protocol (BIO) — −4.9% +31.4% +26.9% down next day
THETA (THETA) — +17.5% +11.5% +7.0% up next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) — +37.5% +57.3% +50.6% up next day
Pendle (PENDLE) — −0.9% +82.8% +73.9% sideways next day
Stable (STABLE) — −1.3% +53.9% +44.9% down next day
The Sandbox (SAND) — +2.0% +3.6% −8.5% up next day
Meteora (MET) — −2.2% +19.7% +9.5% down next day
Optimism (OP) — +1.6% +32.8% +22.6% up next day
Vaulta (A) — −0.4% +17.2% +7.0% sideways next day
Nervos Network (CKB) — +2.1% +12.3% +2.1% up next day
OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) — −2.1% −14.9% −26.9% down next day
Mina Protocol (MINA) — −2.6% +18.3% +6.3% down next day
Livepeer (LPT) — −6.7% +6.0% −6.0% down next day
Compound (COMP) — +1.8% +18.6% +6.6% up next day
Enjin Coin (ENJ) — +1.3% +79.5% +66.0% up next day
DeXe (DEXE) — +3.9% +48.2% +36.7% up next day
Conflux Network (CFX) — −2.3% +26.2% +14.7% down next day
SuperVerse (SUPER) — +1.2% +8.4% −7.8% up next day
Axelar (AXL) — −0.6% +51.0% +34.8% sideways next day
RedStone (RED) — −1.3% −20.1% −36.3% down next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) — −1.0% +18.5% +2.3% down next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) — +7.7% +29.2% +11.2% up next day
DoubleZero (2Z) — −1.4% +8.4% −9.6% down next day
Safe (SAFE) — +1.0% +18.6% +0.6% up next day
Threshold Network (T) — +3.4% +0.2% −17.8% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) — +1.8% +44.3% +24.1% up next day
THETA (THETA) — −1.3% +34.8% +14.6% down next day
Optimism (OP) — −4.4% +10.1% +0.4% down next day
Basic Attention Token (BAT) — −6.5% −4.4% −14.2% down next day
Ontology (ONT) — −8.9% +28.3% +18.6% down next day
Jito (JTO) — +1.8% +5.6% −4.8% up next day
yearn.finance (YFI) — −0.5% +4.1% −6.2% sideways next day
UnifAI Network (UAI) — +0.8% +21.3% +11.0% sideways next day
Bonk (BONK) — +8.6% +11.2% −4.0% up next day
ONEchain (ONE) — — — — not measured yet
Immutable X (IMX) — −1.6% +14.6% −0.6% down next day
Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) — −6.1% −3.2% −8.7% down next day
Monad (MON) — −2.6% +36.7% +31.2% down next day
Floki Inu (FLOKI) — −2.9% +2.0% −3.6% down next day
Falcon Finance (FF) — +0.1% +2.6% −2.9% sideways next day
Stable (STABLE) — −3.1% −6.3% −6.7% down next day
Aethir (ATH) — +0.4% −3.1% −5.8% sideways next day
NEO (NEO) — −0.6% −0.6% −3.4% sideways next day
Starknet (STRK) — +5.1% −18.3% −22.4% up next day
Bonk (BONK) — −8.3% −35.9% −6.9% down next day
Decentraland (MANA) — −0.7% −35.7% −6.6% sideways next day
Hypurr (PURR) — +0.1% +16.4% +45.5% sideways next day
The Sandbox (SAND) — −9.6% −42.9% −13.9% down next day
Enjin Coin (ENJ) — −10.6% −37.4% −8.3% down next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −2.9% −33.6% −5.7% down next day
Prometeus (PROM) — −20.0% −65.2% −37.3% down next day
Vaulta (A) — −12.4% −37.5% −9.6% down next day
Jito (JTO) — −3.4% −35.0% −7.0% down next day
Brett (Base) (BRETT) — −1.7% −53.8% −25.8% down next day
Blur (BLUR) — −9.5% −42.2% −14.2% down next day
Axie Infinity (AXS) — +2.9% +33.6% +61.5% up next day
Safe (SAFE) — −0.6% −37.6% −9.7% sideways next day
Optimism (OP) — +13.8% −40.8% −13.4% up next day
JasmyCoin (JASMY) — +2.3% −31.1% −3.7% up next day
Basic Attention Token (BAT) — +5.2% −32.0% −5.7% up next day
Akash Network (AKT) — −1.7% −34.4% −10.5% down next day
Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) — −0.9% −51.1% −27.2% sideways next day
MultiversX (Elrond) (EGLD) — −7.9% −30.2% −6.2% down next day
GMX (GMX) — −1.9% −24.1% −0.2% down next day
ApeCoin (APE) — −1.8% −40.0% −15.8% down next day
Zilliqa (ZIL) — +0.4% −19.0% +5.1% sideways next day
Threshold Network (T) — +2.1% −24.3% −0.2% up next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) — −2.0% −40.5% −16.3% down next day
Mina Protocol (MINA) — −4.9% −24.6% +0.1% down next day
Ontology (ONT) — −2.6% −30.9% −6.2% down next day
Qtum (QTUM) — −2.7% −37.2% −12.5% down next day
Orca (ORCA) — −3.2% −41.2% −8.2% down next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) — −2.2% −50.3% −17.3% down next day
THETA (THETA) — −5.3% −44.1% −11.1% down next day
yearn.finance (YFI) — +3.5% −24.8% −4.8% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) — +4.8% −21.8% −5.4% up next day
Basic Attention Token (BAT) — +3.2% −46.5% −30.1% up next day
Terra Classic (LUNC) — +6.8% −11.5% +1.0% up next day
OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) — +7.6% −15.4% −2.0% up next day
IOTA (IOTA) — +10.7% −16.5% −3.1% up next day
VeThor Token (VTHO) — +1.3% −18.7% −5.4% up next day
Flow (FLOW) — +6.0% −40.2% −26.8% up next day

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 219 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answers generated from this count

What does the 44% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 97 of the 219 measured past cases of funding extreme lows of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 39% to 50% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 219.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 40% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 225 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every funding extreme low with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.