How often it went up135 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Funding extreme lows of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories: 135 of the 144 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 67 of those 135 closed higher — a base rate of 50%, with a 90% range of 43% to 57%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 74 of the 130 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (57%).
- The typical day-30 move was +2.9%, the best +213.8% and the worst −38.0%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran +2.5% vs BTC and beat it in 56.2% of 130 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 47% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 54% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 9 days ago · AAVE Aave next day +0.3% · 7 days −12.4% · 30 days lands
- 13 days ago · QNT Quant next day −13.9% · 7 days −17.6% · 30 days lands
- 17 days ago · INJ Injective Protocol next day −4.6% · 7 days −1.7% · 30 days lands
- 18 days ago · LIT Lighter 30 days lands
- 23 days ago · AKE Akedo next day −14.0% · 7 days −45.8% · 30 days lands
- 26 days ago · LIT Lighter 30 days lands
NO DATA YET No scheduled funding extreme low meets every condition of this pattern as of Oct 14, 2026.
Every past case144 cases
Every past funding extreme low behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 144 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.3% | in 21 days | in 21 days | sideways next day | |
| Quant (QNT) | — | −13.9% | in 17 days | in 17 days | down next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | −4.6% | in 13 days | in 13 days | down next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | in 12 days | in 12 days | not measured yet | |
| Akedo (AKE) | — | −14.0% | in 7 days | in 7 days | down next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | in 4 days | in 4 days | not measured yet | |
| Shiba Inu (SHIB) | — | +9.4% | in 3 days | in 3 days | up next day | |
| Akedo (AKE) | — | −12.0% | +58.1% | +51.0% | down next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | +10.3% | +59.4% | +51.8% | up next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| JUST (JST) | — | −2.3% | +22.7% | +15.6% | down next day | |
| Tether Gold (XAUT) | — | +4.1% | +1.2% | −23.8% | up next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | −2.2% | +30.3% | +10.4% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −0.5% | +48.3% | +24.2% | sideways next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Akedo (AKE) | — | +48.9% | +122.2% | +101.2% | up next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | — | −4.9% | +13.8% | −7.0% | down next day | |
| JUST (JST) | — | +1.4% | +4.7% | −16.1% | up next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | −4.7% | +37.0% | +15.1% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | — | +1.9% | +52.6% | +27.7% | up next day | |
| PAX Gold (PAXG) | — | +2.3% | +4.1% | −20.8% | up next day | |
| Canton Network (CC) | — | −15.9% | −1.5% | −25.7% | down next day | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | — | −3.1% | +29.5% | +7.8% | down next day | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | — | −2.1% | −10.4% | −33.6% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −2.4% | +31.9% | +9.7% | down next day | |
| PAX Gold (PAXG) | — | −0.8% | +9.4% | −12.9% | sideways next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | −7.5% | +10.9% | −9.9% | down next day | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | — | −1.9% | +26.1% | +4.1% | down next day | |
| Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) | — | +5.9% | +62.9% | +39.8% | up next day | |
| Akedo (AKE) | — | +14.4% | +213.8% | +190.7% | up next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | — | −4.3% | −10.5% | −10.4% | down next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | −1.5% | −6.8% | −7.7% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −1.4% | +7.0% | +10.1% | down next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Shiba Inu (SHIB) | — | +1.9% | +7.2% | +5.4% | up next day | |
| Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) | — | −1.0% | +3.6% | +4.0% | sideways next day | |
| Quant (QNT) | — | +0.5% | −11.0% | −10.5% | sideways next day | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | — | +3.9% | +11.4% | +7.1% | up next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | +2.3% | −4.5% | −6.9% | up next day | |
| Canton Network (CC) | — | −7.3% | −26.7% | −28.3% | down next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Shiba Inu (SHIB) | — | −0.7% | +11.9% | +10.4% | sideways next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | +2.0% | −0.1% | −6.5% | up next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | +1.4% | +14.1% | +4.7% | up next day | |
| Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) | — | +2.6% | +2.6% | −2.8% | up next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | — | −4.0% | −8.1% | −10.3% | down next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | — | +3.8% | −18.9% | −21.6% | up next day | |
| Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) | — | +2.7% | −10.4% | −8.9% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −3.4% | +43.9% | +43.6% | down next day | |
| Worldcoin (WLD) | — | +20.1% | −8.0% | −12.1% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | +8.0% | +18.5% | +13.6% | up next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | +3.9% | −1.4% | −6.3% | up next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | — | +5.1% | +82.1% | +77.2% | up next day | |
| JUST (JST) | — | +9.9% | +22.8% | +24.4% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −3.0% | +2.8% | +23.5% | down next day | |
| Worldcoin (WLD) | — | +20.8% | +45.2% | +63.2% | up next day | |
| Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) | — | +0.1% | −21.4% | −3.4% | sideways next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | +20.6% | −16.7% | +2.3% | up next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | — | +5.3% | +19.9% | +38.9% | up next day | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | — | +1.8% | −16.1% | +3.0% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −1.2% | −10.9% | +8.4% | down next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | — | −4.5% | −14.5% | +2.6% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −1.2% | −0.6% | +15.4% | down next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Worldcoin (WLD) | — | +0.8% | +181.2% | +197.1% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −4.0% | −20.6% | −4.4% | down next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | −5.0% | +2.5% | +21.2% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −0.3% | −15.6% | −0.4% | sideways next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | — | +7.2% | +24.7% | +33.4% | up next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | −4.5% | +46.4% | +51.8% | down next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | — | −1.2% | +2.9% | +8.2% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −1.9% | +3.4% | +1.1% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +3.7% | −2.7% | −5.1% | up next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | — | +2.8% | +11.4% | +6.3% | up next day | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | — | +3.1% | +60.6% | +55.5% | up next day | |
| Worldcoin (WLD) | — | +0.3% | −9.5% | −11.0% | sideways next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | — | −5.3% | −4.4% | −7.5% | down next day | |
| Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) | — | −1.2% | −6.8% | −18.9% | down next day | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | — | +4.3% | +25.1% | +7.2% | up next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | — | −0.9% | +49.7% | +29.5% | sideways next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | — | +0.5% | +0.8% | −16.7% | sideways next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | +0.2% | +18.5% | +1.1% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.1% | −2.0% | −19.5% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +5.9% | +11.9% | −5.5% | up next day | |
| Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) | — | +4.2% | +55.2% | +40.4% | up next day | |
| Worldcoin (WLD) | — | −8.0% | −11.1% | −25.4% | down next day | |
| Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) | — | −11.1% | −19.6% | −28.4% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | +6.9% | +1.2% | −9.2% | up next day | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | — | +4.4% | +3.2% | −7.2% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | — | 0.0% | +0.8% | −14.5% | sideways next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | — | −4.7% | +19.6% | +12.0% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −6.7% | −4.0% | −8.3% | down next day | |
| JUST (JST) | — | +1.1% | +39.2% | +34.3% | up next day | |
| Internet Computer (ICP) | — | −2.8% | −5.6% | −9.6% | down next day | |
| Quant (QNT) | — | +0.9% | +20.7% | +13.0% | sideways next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | +12.0% | +4.7% | −3.1% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | +3.3% | −4.2% | −11.2% | up next day | |
| Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) | — | +0.5% | +74.9% | +68.0% | sideways next day | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | — | +4.2% | −4.2% | −11.1% | up next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | −3.8% | −2.0% | −3.1% | down next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | — | −4.9% | +18.0% | +20.7% | down next day | |
| Canton Network (CC) | — | −2.8% | −11.9% | −15.5% | down next day | |
| PAX Gold (PAXG) | — | −0.2% | −12.7% | −14.7% | sideways next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | — | −3.0% | +23.8% | +21.9% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | — | +9.0% | −1.9% | −3.9% | up next day | |
| Shiba Inu (SHIB) | — | −4.2% | +2.4% | +1.0% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −5.2% | −18.7% | −16.4% | down next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | +17.9% | +16.3% | +9.9% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −3.2% | +1.0% | −4.4% | down next day | |
| Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) | — | +1.1% | +26.3% | +25.0% | up next day | |
| Injective Protocol (INJ) | — | +15.0% | −10.3% | −11.5% | up next day | |
| Internet Computer (ICP) | — | +0.9% | +7.5% | +6.2% | sideways next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | — | +5.2% | −2.0% | −3.3% | up next day | |
| Quant (QNT) | — | −2.5% | +6.5% | +5.0% | down next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | — | +30.2% | +78.8% | +73.0% | up next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | −4.1% | +14.4% | +8.6% | down next day | |
| Pyth Network (PYTH) | — | −2.2% | −14.6% | −20.4% | down next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | — | +9.4% | +19.0% | +12.9% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −1.1% | −2.0% | −2.9% | down next day | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | — | −0.1% | −2.9% | +0.2% | sideways next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | — | +12.4% | +26.3% | +29.3% | up next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | — | −5.8% | −2.7% | +0.4% | down next day | |
| JUST (JST) | — | +5.9% | +27.4% | +22.6% | up next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | +4.1% | +23.0% | +28.6% | up next day | |
| Internet Computer (ICP) | — | +0.8% | −4.3% | +1.3% | sideways next day | |
| Quant (QNT) | — | −2.8% | −9.7% | +8.6% | down next day | |
| Worldcoin (WLD) | — | −13.3% | −19.6% | +2.7% | down next day | |
| Pyth Network (PYTH) | — | −7.6% | −23.6% | +1.4% | down next day | |
| JUST (JST) | — | −6.3% | +6.9% | +31.9% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −7.4% | −28.9% | −2.7% | down next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | — | −0.8% | −30.2% | −5.7% | sideways next day | |
| PAX Gold (PAXG) | — | +4.3% | +7.1% | +31.1% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −0.8% | −32.5% | −9.4% | sideways next day | |
| Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) | — | +2.1% | −27.6% | −4.6% | up next day | |
| Ondo (ONDO) | — | −2.5% | −24.9% | +2.8% | down next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | — | −0.8% | −33.0% | −5.0% | sideways next day | |
| JUST (JST) | — | +0.6% | +4.9% | +31.2% | sideways next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | — | +30.5% | −28.1% | −5.5% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −0.0% | −38.0% | −15.2% | sideways next day | |
| PAX Gold (PAXG) | — | −0.2% | +9.0% | +22.3% | sideways next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | — | +13.4% | +42.5% | +52.6% | up next day | |
| Shiba Inu (SHIB) | — | +17.5% | −1.4% | +8.7% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 135 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group and market-cap bucket), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 50% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 67 of the 135 measured past cases of funding extreme lows of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 43% to 57% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 135.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 47% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 54% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 144 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every funding extreme low with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.