PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
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Pattern · funding extreme lows · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-14

Funding extreme lows of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: all 199 measured cases

funding extreme low category · othersize · microbtc trend · upheld up on recent cases 203 cases on record last 5 cases: 3 up

Explained and tested in our research: What happens to a coin in the 30 days after an extreme low in funding?

higher the next day

41%

81 of 199 past cases

41% of past cases were higher (90% range 35-47%)

90% range 35%–47%

higher after 30 days

42%

69 of 164 cases measured after 30 days

42% of past cases were higher (90% range 36-48%)

90% range 36%–48% · typical move −7.4%

typical next day
−2.2%
typical after 30 days
−7.4%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
−8.6%
best after 30 days
+231.9%
worst after 30 days
−94.7%
30 days: up · sideways · down
54 · 27 · 83

recent-cases check · held up: 38% → 45% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

FUNDING LOWall funding extreme lows against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
−4−9…+2
7 days
0−6…+6
30 days
+10+4…+16

After funding extreme lows, the price was higher 30 days later in 43% of 1,174 cases on 247 separate days, against 33% of the same coins' ordinary days: +10 points (95% range +4 to +16; older half +5, newer half +15). Coin by coin, it is a likely driver on 1 coin.

Every past funding extreme low, 30 days on 164 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 47 rose · ▼ 75 fell · ◆ 42 sideways (±11% over 30 days)

Each line is one past funding extreme low: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · 80 of the 164 cases measured that far, evenly through their dates · past cases, not a projection

Funding extreme lows of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 199 of the 203 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 81 of those 199 closed higher — a base rate of 41%, with a 90% range of 35% to 47%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up199 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

Funding extreme lows of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 199 of the 203 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 81 of those 199 closed higher — a base rate of 41%, with a 90% range of 35% to 47%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.

  • By day 30, 69 of the 164 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (42%).
  • The typical day-30 move was −7.4%, the best +231.9% and the worst −94.7%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −8.6% vs BTC and beat it in 32.3% of 164 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 38% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 45% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running

  • yesterday · CTK Shentu 30 days lands
  • 2 days ago · WAL Walrus next day +0.7% · 30 days lands
  • 3 days ago · MAGIC MAGIC next day +22.0% · 30 days lands
  • 4 days ago · ESPORTS Yooldo next day −0.9% · 30 days lands
  • 5 days ago · PEOPLE Constitution DAO next day +4.3% · 30 days lands
  • 5 days ago · SKL SKALE next day −2.0% · 30 days lands

NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme low can be matched to this pattern before it happens.

Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme lows of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories →

Every past case203 cases

Every past funding extreme low behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 203 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

203 past cases of funding extreme lows of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with btc above its 50-day average, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2026
Shentu (CTK) — — in 29 days in 29 days not measured yet
Walrus (WAL) — +0.7% in 28 days in 28 days sideways next day
MAGIC (MAGIC) — +22.0% in 27 days in 27 days up next day
Yooldo (ESPORTS) — −0.9% in 26 days in 26 days sideways next day
Constitution DAO (PEOPLE) — +4.3% in 25 days in 25 days up next day
SKALE (SKL) — −2.0% in 25 days in 25 days down next day
Cartesi (CTSI) — +6.8% in 25 days in 25 days up next day
Caldera (ERA) — +23.1% in 25 days in 25 days up next day
AVA (AVA) — +0.2% in 25 days in 25 days sideways next day
UMA (UMA) — −8.5% in 23 days in 23 days down next day
API3 (API3) — −15.0% in 23 days in 23 days down next day
Moonriver (MOVR) — −1.9% in 22 days in 22 days down next day
CARV (CARV) — −9.9% in 22 days in 22 days down next day
Ravencoin (RVN) — −6.2% in 22 days in 22 days down next day
Origin Protocol (OGN) — +3.8% in 22 days in 22 days up next day
Everlyn AI (LYN) — −24.7% in 21 days in 21 days down next day
Magma Finance (MAGMA) — −10.9% in 21 days in 21 days down next day
iExec RLC (RLC) — +96.9% in 20 days in 20 days up next day
Gitcoin (GTC) — +30.7% in 19 days in 19 days up next day
Scroll (SCR) — −2.9% in 19 days in 19 days down next day
Ark (ARK) — −9.6% in 17 days in 17 days down next day
Quack AI (Q) — +0.9% in 15 days in 15 days sideways next day
Saga (SAGA) — −3.7% in 14 days in 14 days down next day
MAGIC (MAGIC) — −5.2% in 14 days in 14 days down next day
Xai Games (XAI) — +4.7% in 12 days in 12 days up next day
Chromia (CHR) — +4.9% in 10 days in 10 days up next day
COTI (COTI) — +5.3% in 9 days in 9 days up next day
Succinct (PROVE) — +2.4% in 9 days in 9 days up next day
SKALE (SKL) — +5.2% in 7 days in 7 days up next day
Cartesi (CTSI) — +1.9% in 7 days in 7 days up next day
Gravity (G) — −5.5% in 7 days in 7 days down next day
Ontology Gas (ONG) — +4.5% in 7 days in 7 days up next day
Harmony (ONE) — +102.8% in 4 days in 4 days up next day
AVA (AVA) — −14.2% in 4 days in 4 days down next day
Constitution DAO (PEOPLE) — −3.1% tomorrow tomorrow down next day
Civic (CVC) — −10.3% — — down next day
Opinion (OPN) — −6.6% +24.4% +18.4% down next day
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) — −3.9% −2.5% −8.5% down next day
Ravencoin (RVN) — −3.9% −16.6% −26.0% down next day
Ark (ARK) — +20.8% +88.5% +79.1% up next day
Velvet (VELVET) — +6.8% +29.6% +20.2% up next day
IOST (IOST) — −52.1% −54.3% −60.3% down next day
Mira Network (MIRA) — −9.8% −4.3% −10.3% down next day
Cetus Protocol (CETUS) — −4.7% +22.0% +16.0% down next day
Sophon (SOPH) — −25.4% −38.0% −43.3% down next day
Hemi (HEMI) — −31.6% −41.5% −45.3% down next day
LATOKEN (LA) — +1.7% +1.4% −8.2% up next day
Bitrue Coin (BTR) — — — — not measured yet
Ravencoin (RVN) — +2.1% −18.8% −26.5% up next day
Band Protocol (BAND) — +4.5% +26.4% +18.8% up next day
Boundless (ZKC) — −19.4% −30.5% −38.1% down next day
Nillion (NIL) — −5.0% +41.2% +34.2% down next day
Test (TST) — +0.8% +21.4% +14.3% sideways next day
Velvet (VELVET) — −15.1% −53.5% −60.6% down next day
TUTORIAL (TUT) — +6.1% −42.7% −49.5% up next day
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) — −2.2% −9.1% −17.7% down next day
Portal (PORTAL) — +18.4% +69.8% +58.6% up next day
OpenEden (EDEN) — +7.2% +4.4% −20.5% up next day
ALPINE Fan Token (ALPINE) — −8.5% −9.3% −34.3% down next day
Ontology Gas (ONG) — +9.8% +37.3% +18.9% up next day
Harmony (ONE) — −8.2% −20.1% −41.9% down next day
Ravencoin (RVN) — −7.9% −22.4% −43.8% down next day
UMA (UMA) — −1.8% +11.8% −9.6% down next day
Cetus Protocol (CETUS) — +3.6% +12.7% −7.0% up next day
IoTeX (IOTX) — −9.1% +8.7% −12.0% down next day
Coin98 (C98) — −4.5% −0.1% −20.9% down next day
Xai Games (XAI) — −0.1% +11.7% −10.1% sideways next day
Cartesi (CTSI) — −19.7% −15.7% −40.6% down next day
Bonfida (FIDA) — −7.9% −2.4% −25.9% down next day
Test (TST) — +12.3% +81.1% +56.8% up next day
Home (HOME) — +3.9% −32.2% −56.5% up next day
Fusionist (ACE) — +7.1% +179.7% +151.8% up next day
Mira Network (MIRA) — +2.4% +9.2% −18.8% up next day
Biconomy (BICO) — +61.1% +30.7% +2.7% up next day
Synapse (SYN) — −2.6% +2.9% −20.4% down next day
Band Protocol (BAND) — −4.4% +12.3% −11.0% down next day
UMA (UMA) — −6.7% +2.0% −19.8% down next day
COTI (COTI) — +22.3% +14.8% −7.0% up next day
Alchemy Pay (ACH) — +3.2% +12.0% −9.8% up next day
Nillion (NIL) — −10.2% +8.5% −17.3% down next day
DIA (DIA) — −13.2% +4.7% −16.1% down next day
Chromia (CHR) — −7.0% +18.7% −2.1% down next day
AVA (AVA) — −5.5% +29.9% +9.1% down next day
Euler (EUL) — −15.5% −27.7% −49.7% down next day
Opinion (OPN) — −2.9% −13.3% −36.5% down next day
Boundless (ZKC) — −4.3% −4.9% −24.3% down next day
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) — +30.5% −84.5% −101.0% up next day
Mira Network (MIRA) — −12.3% −14.5% −31.1% down next day
LATOKEN (LA) — +14.5% +14.2% −3.5% up next day
Harmony (ONE) — −10.9% −42.2% −59.9% down next day
Fusionist (ACE) — −21.1% +122.5% +110.6% down next day
My Neighbor Alice (ALICE) — −0.9% +20.7% +8.8% sideways next day
Cetus Protocol (CETUS) — −0.6% +22.2% +10.3% sideways next day
Velvet (VELVET) — +3.4% +27.6% +27.8% up next day
Caldera (ERA) — −4.9% −15.7% −15.6% down next day
Yooldo (ESPORTS) — −32.8% −48.5% −48.4% down next day
Home (HOME) — −9.7% −19.8% −20.8% down next day
DIA (DIA) — −1.7% +22.9% +26.0% down next day
ALPINE Fan Token (ALPINE) — 0.0% −3.0% +0.0% sideways next day
Lumia (LUMIA) — +17.1% +10.3% +13.4% up next day
Vana (VANA) — +3.6% −30.0% −26.9% up next day
EVAA Protocol (EVAA) — +25.5% −4.8% −6.6% up next day
Constitution DAO (PEOPLE) — +8.5% +46.4% +44.6% up next day
Chromia (CHR) — +4.9% −7.5% −9.4% up next day
Giggle Fund (GIGGLE) — −3.0% −13.2% +5.1% down next day
GMT (GMT) — −12.4% −38.0% −19.7% down next day
LAB (LAB) — +5.5% +200.0% +217.3% up next day
Yooldo (ESPORTS) — +18.4% −94.7% −77.4% up next day
My Neighbor Alice (ALICE) — −7.7% −26.7% −8.4% down next day
Hana Network (HANA) — +19.0% +38.5% +56.7% up next day
Test (TST) — −5.1% −33.2% −16.4% down next day
OpenEden (EDEN) — +65.6% −13.6% +3.1% up next day
Bonfida (FIDA) — −10.7% −0.1% +16.6% down next day
Saga (SAGA) — −14.4% −51.0% −32.1% down next day
BounceBit (BB) — −8.2% −37.3% −18.6% down next day
Giggle Fund (GIGGLE) — −1.3% −21.9% −0.8% down next day
Gitcoin (GTC) — −33.1% −55.6% −33.5% down next day
Bluwhale (BLUAI) — +17.5% +18.7% +40.9% up next day
Solayer (LAYER) — −13.7% −48.9% −23.7% down next day
Nillion (NIL) — −10.8% −45.1% −23.7% down next day
Gunz (GUN) — −0.5% −59.7% −38.4% sideways next day
Drift Protocol (DRIFT) — +2.4% −51.1% −30.3% up next day
Test (TST) — +33.9% +3.5% +21.8% up next day
Home (HOME) — −2.8% +231.9% +247.1% down next day
Cartesi (CTSI) — −0.7% −21.7% −6.5% sideways next day
Constitution DAO (PEOPLE) — −2.6% −18.7% −13.9% down next day
Alchemy Pay (ACH) — −3.4% −14.3% −9.4% down next day
Mira Network (MIRA) — −4.0% −10.7% −5.4% down next day
Biconomy (BICO) — −10.3% −19.7% −14.3% down next day
Gunz (GUN) — −2.2% −28.0% −26.4% down next day
BounceBit (BB) — −2.8% +4.6% +6.1% down next day
UMA (UMA) — +1.1% −3.2% −2.1% up next day
Trusta.AI (TA) — +2.5% +38.7% +36.4% up next day
AVA (AVA) — −1.7% −0.1% −2.4% down next day
Gitcoin (GTC) — +16.3% +4.1% +2.6% up next day
Fusionist (ACE) — −4.0% −7.2% −8.7% down next day
Portal (PORTAL) — +33.4% −21.7% −23.2% up next day
My Neighbor Alice (ALICE) — −1.9% −21.0% −22.5% down next day
API3 (API3) — −12.8% −10.4% −11.9% down next day
Moonriver (MOVR) — −34.3% −22.9% −22.8% down next day
Band Protocol (BAND) — −9.5% −11.2% −11.1% down next day
Metis Token (METIS) — −20.8% −21.1% −21.0% down next day
Saga (SAGA) — −20.9% −22.0% −25.1% down next day
IOST (IOST) — +3.3% −2.7% −7.2% up next day
Plume (PLUME) — +0.2% +1.7% −5.0% sideways next day
Giggle Fund (GIGGLE) — +1.2% −7.9% −16.8% up next day
Polkadot Token (DOT) — −4.7% +8.5% −3.6% down next day
CARV (CARV) — +3.4% +21.7% +9.6% up next day
Bonfida (FIDA) — −4.7% +5.0% −7.1% down next day
Space ID (ID) — +0.3% +3.6% −6.6% sideways next day
Particle Network (PARTI) — −13.4% +28.4% +16.4% down next day
EDU Coin (EDU) — +3.8% +21.8% +9.7% up next day
Chromia (CHR) — +4.8% +66.4% +52.8% up next day
Test (TST) — −6.2% +148.9% +137.4% down next day
Gunz (GUN) — +0.8% −9.0% −20.4% sideways next day
Bulla (BULLA) — −15.8% −64.4% −75.9% down next day
Nillion (NIL) — −7.0% +148.4% +132.2% down next day
Bella Protocol (BEL) — −4.6% +9.8% −6.4% down next day
Gitcoin (GTC) — +6.7% +21.3% +3.4% up next day
Alchemy Pay (ACH) — −2.3% +31.8% +11.6% down next day
Nillion (NIL) — −10.4% +9.9% +0.1% down next day
Ontology Gas (ONG) — −8.8% +21.3% +11.5% down next day
Chromia (CHR) — +2.1% +53.1% +42.7% up next day
Harmony (ONE) — +1.8% +0.5% −14.8% up next day
Capricorn (APR) — −29.6% −13.8% −19.3% down next day
Bitrue Coin (BTR) — — — — not measured yet
Impossible Cloud Network (ICNT) — −18.1% +0.2% −5.3% down next day
Ravencoin (RVN) — −7.7% +3.2% −1.1% down next day
Janction (JCT) — +22.2% +107.9% +103.6% up next day
Bluwhale (BLUAI) — −3.0% +40.5% +36.2% down next day
Gravity (G) — −27.2% −29.6% −30.0% down next day
Pippin (PIPPIN) — −49.2% −78.2% −78.6% down next day
Yield Guild Games (YGG) — +2.8% −3.1% −5.8% up next day
Home (HOME) — +4.5% −16.4% −20.5% up next day
Lumia (LUMIA) — −12.4% −46.8% −17.7% down next day
Bitrue Coin (BTR) — — — — not measured yet
Xai Games (XAI) — −20.5% −51.3% −23.4% down next day
Linea (LINEA) — −6.3% −43.0% −15.1% down next day
Gitcoin (GTC) — +7.4% −25.0% +3.0% up next day
Berachain (BERA) — −14.3% −11.2% +16.8% down next day
Impossible Cloud Network (ICNT) — +1.5% +3.7% +31.6% up next day
Initia (INIT) — +3.4% −18.8% +7.5% up next day
Band Protocol (BAND) — +7.1% −29.7% −3.4% up next day
Veranta (AVNT) — −3.3% −42.9% −18.9% down next day
Drift Protocol (DRIFT) — −5.4% −48.1% −24.2% down next day
MAGIC (MAGIC) — −5.1% −33.8% −11.2% down next day
Walrus (WAL) — −2.6% −44.5% −21.9% down next day
GoPlus (GPS) — −19.5% +91.8% +114.4% down next day
DIA (DIA) — −1.6% −36.2% −13.4% down next day
GMT (GMT) — +36.2% −24.2% −1.4% up next day
Civic (CVC) — −2.4% −32.7% −9.9% down next day
Alchemy Pay (ACH) — +6.5% −23.3% −0.5% up next day
Space ID (ID) — +22.3% −26.3% −3.5% up next day
Scroll (SCR) — 0.0% −32.4% −8.3% sideways next day
Gravity (G) — +3.0% −23.9% +0.3% up next day
Act I : The AI Prophecy (ACT) — +2.0% −37.7% −13.5% up next day
Dusk Network (DUSK) — −2.0% +65.0% +89.2% down next day
zkSync (ZK) — −8.6% −37.2% −12.5% down next day
Aevo (AEVO) — −7.9% −32.0% −7.3% down next day
Metis Token (METIS) — −9.3% −30.9% −6.2% down next day
Gunz (GUN) — +3.6% +92.3% +108.7% up next day
Moonriver (MOVR) — +2.5% −31.3% −18.8% up next day
LATOKEN (LA) — +4.9% −25.0% −11.6% up next day

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 199 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answers generated from this count

What does the 41% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 81 of the 199 measured past cases of funding extreme lows of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 35% to 47% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 199.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 38% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 45% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 203 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every funding extreme low with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.