How often it went up26 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Funding extreme lows of large-cap L1 and L2 tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 26 of the 28 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 17 of those 26 closed higher — a base rate of 65%, with a 90% range of 49% to 79%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 15 of the 26 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (58%).
- The typical day-30 move was +1.0%, the best +33.5% and the worst −37.2%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran 0.0% vs BTC and beat it in 34.6% of 26 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 56% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 80% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme low can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme lows of large-cap L1 and L2 tokens →
Every past case28 cases
Every past funding extreme low behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 28 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Litecoin (LTC) | — | +0.7% | +21.2% | −2.8% | sideways next day | |
| Litecoin (LTC) | — | +0.9% | +9.6% | −15.4% | sideways next day | |
| Cardano (ADA) | — | +2.2% | +12.6% | +13.1% | up next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | +0.4% | +24.7% | +15.3% | sideways next day | |
| XRP (XRP) | — | +0.4% | +6.7% | −2.7% | sideways next day | |
| Cardano (ADA) | — | −5.8% | −9.8% | −8.3% | down next day | |
| Monero (XMR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| XRP (XRP) | — | −1.6% | −5.6% | −4.0% | down next day | |
| Zcash (ZEC) | — | +26.7% | +33.5% | +29.4% | up next day | |
| Monero (XMR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.6% | +17.4% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| XRP (XRP) | — | +1.0% | +3.1% | −11.7% | up next day | |
| XRP (XRP) | — | +3.5% | +0.2% | −7.5% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +6.0% | +7.7% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Cardano (ADA) | — | +0.3% | +3.3% | −3.7% | sideways next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | +1.2% | +13.7% | +6.8% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +2.8% | +2.0% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| XRP (XRP) | — | +1.0% | −2.6% | −4.5% | up next day | |
| Cardano (ADA) | — | −6.3% | −4.9% | −8.7% | down next day | |
| Litecoin (LTC) | — | +4.2% | +1.5% | +0.3% | up next day | |
| Litecoin (LTC) | — | −2.1% | +0.5% | +0.7% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −7.1% | −10.0% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Litecoin (LTC) | — | +0.8% | −8.0% | +5.2% | sideways next day | |
| Cardano (ADA) | — | −10.9% | −13.6% | +4.7% | down next day | |
| XRP (XRP) | — | −8.3% | −19.9% | −1.6% | down next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | −4.7% | −37.2% | −9.4% | down next day | |
| Litecoin (LTC) | — | 0.0% | −21.6% | +2.9% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +1.3% | −23.1% | 0.0% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 26 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 65% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 17 of the 26 measured past cases of funding extreme lows of large-cap L1 and L2 tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 49% to 79% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 26.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 56% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 80% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 28 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every funding extreme low with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.