How often it went up44 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Funding extreme lows of large-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 44 of the 48 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 25 of those 44 closed higher — a base rate of 57%, with a 90% range of 44% to 68%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 26 of the 40 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (65%).
- The typical day-30 move was +3.2%, the best +137.1% and the worst −48.6%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −0.3% vs BTC and beat it in 42.5% of 40 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 58% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 56% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 2 days ago · XMR Monero 30 days lands
- 2 days ago · ETH Ethereum next day −1.5% · 30 days lands
- 4 days ago · LINK Chainlink next day +4.2% · 30 days lands
- 15 days ago · XMR Monero 30 days lands
- 16 days ago · TRX TRON next day +0.3% · 7 days +0.8% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme low can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme lows of large-cap tokens →
Every past case48 cases
Every past funding extreme low behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 48 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Monero (XMR) | — | — | in 28 days | in 28 days | not measured yet | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | −1.5% | in 28 days | in 28 days | down next day | |
| Chainlink (LINK) | — | +4.2% | in 26 days | in 26 days | up next day | |
| Monero (XMR) | — | — | in 15 days | in 15 days | not measured yet | |
| TRON (TRX) | — | +0.3% | in 14 days | in 14 days | sideways next day | |
| Chainlink (LINK) | — | −2.8% | — | — | down next day | |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | — | +4.1% | +112.6% | +104.9% | up next day | |
| TRON (TRX) | — | +2.7% | +3.8% | −5.3% | up next day | |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | — | +1.0% | +3.3% | −3.7% | sideways next day | |
| Chainlink (LINK) | — | +12.1% | +28.2% | +3.2% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +10.6% | +137.1% | +118.7% | up next day | |
| BNB (BNB) | — | +0.2% | +20.4% | −0.8% | sideways next day | |
| Monero (XMR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stellar (XLM) | — | −1.3% | +3.1% | −18.7% | down next day | |
| Cardano (ADA) | — | −5.6% | +26.9% | +4.9% | down next day | |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | — | +5.5% | +29.5% | +6.4% | up next day | |
| TRON (TRX) | — | +1.3% | +2.7% | +1.7% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin Cash (BCH) | — | −0.8% | −8.1% | −6.6% | sideways next day | |
| Cardano (ADA) | — | −0.9% | −38.4% | −20.2% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −3.9% | −15.6% | +2.7% | down next day | |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | — | −0.3% | +29.1% | +46.2% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin Cash (BCH) | — | −1.5% | −47.3% | −29.0% | down next day | |
| Litecoin (LTC) | — | −0.8% | −19.3% | −1.1% | sideways next day | |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | — | −7.6% | +40.4% | +62.6% | down next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | +1.5% | −26.2% | −5.4% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −1.5% | −25.2% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Chainlink (LINK) | — | +0.7% | +0.4% | +3.9% | sideways next day | |
| Cardano (ADA) | — | −1.5% | −5.4% | −0.5% | down next day | |
| TRON (TRX) | — | 0.0% | +15.0% | +15.1% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.2% | +1.5% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | +1.1% | −4.2% | −10.9% | up next day | |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | — | +0.7% | +1.5% | −5.2% | sideways next day | |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | — | +1.2% | +14.8% | +4.5% | up next day | |
| Stellar (XLM) | — | +1.9% | +5.8% | −4.4% | up next day | |
| Chainlink (LINK) | — | +1.2% | +19.8% | +5.3% | up next day | |
| Zcash (ZEC) | — | +16.1% | +83.8% | +70.3% | up next day | |
| Cardano (ADA) | — | −3.3% | +4.1% | −7.4% | down next day | |
| BNB (BNB) | — | +1.9% | +1.8% | −13.4% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +4.0% | +15.2% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | +5.0% | +15.6% | +0.4% | up next day | |
| Litecoin (LTC) | — | +5.4% | +3.7% | −11.5% | up next day | |
| Cardano (ADA) | — | −3.8% | −9.4% | −14.9% | down next day | |
| Cardano (ADA) | — | −5.0% | −27.7% | +0.2% | down next day | |
| Monero (XMR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | — | −1.2% | +20.0% | +43.9% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −7.1% | −48.6% | −15.6% | down next day | |
| XRP (XRP) | — | +7.4% | −15.4% | −2.0% | up next day | |
| Cardano (ADA) | — | +9.2% | −19.8% | −6.5% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 44 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 57% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 25 of the 44 measured past cases of funding extreme lows of large-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 44% to 68% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 44.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 58% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 56% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 48 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every funding extreme low with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.