How often it went up37 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Funding extreme highs of large-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 37 of the 44 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 24 of those 37 closed higher — a base rate of 65%, with a 90% range of 51% to 76%, counted as of Oct 16, 2026.
- By day 30, 27 of the 34 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (79%).
- The typical day-30 move was +12.0%, the best +138.0% and the worst −29.0%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran 0.0% vs BTC and beat it in 32.4% of 34 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 59% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 73% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 23 days ago · XLM Stellar next day +0.7% · 7 days +4.7% · 30 days lands
- 24 days ago · DOGE Dogecoin next day −7.2% · 7 days −6.0% · 30 days lands
- 24 days ago · NEAR Near Protocol next day +1.4% · 7 days +14.4% · 30 days lands
- 27 days ago · XMR Monero 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled funding extreme high can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Funding extreme highs of large-cap tokens →
Every past case44 cases
Every past funding extreme high behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 44 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Stellar (XLM) | — | +0.7% | in 7 days | in 7 days | sideways next day | |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | — | −7.2% | in 6 days | in 6 days | down next day | |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | — | +1.4% | in 6 days | in 6 days | up next day | |
| Monero (XMR) | — | — | in 3 days | in 3 days | not measured yet | |
| Monero (XMR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BNB (BNB) | — | +1.3% | +13.4% | +1.5% | up next day | |
| Litecoin (LTC) | — | −1.5% | +20.1% | +8.2% | down next day | |
| TRON (TRX) | — | +0.2% | −0.6% | −12.5% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +0.8% | +138.0% | +126.1% | sideways next day | |
| Stellar (XLM) | — | −0.9% | +10.5% | −1.3% | sideways next day | |
| XRP (XRP) | — | +1.4% | +7.6% | −4.3% | up next day | |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | — | +2.0% | +9.1% | −1.5% | up next day | |
| Chainlink (LINK) | — | −3.7% | +9.9% | −0.6% | down next day | |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | — | +2.4% | +117.0% | +106.5% | up next day | |
| Monero (XMR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Zcash (ZEC) | — | +16.3% | +100.4% | +89.8% | up next day | |
| Monero (XMR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Monero (XMR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Monero (XMR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | — | +1.2% | +14.8% | +4.5% | up next day | |
| Monero (XMR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +3.0% | +1.5% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | −10.0% | −18.5% | −0.3% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +1.4% | +16.6% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | +2.4% | +9.1% | −7.5% | up next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.5% | +2.9% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | −2.6% | −0.4% | +9.6% | down next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −8.5% | −29.0% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | −0.4% | +49.9% | +75.6% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +19.7% | +44.0% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −3.4% | +44.8% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | −4.9% | +13.8% | −31.0% | down next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | −18.6% | +43.2% | −12.6% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +2.9% | +14.0% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | +12.4% | +70.1% | +56.1% | up next day | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | +2.4% | +91.8% | +34.6% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +4.0% | +26.2% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | +8.0% | +4.6% | −21.6% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −0.8% | −8.5% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | −1.0% | −13.9% | −4.7% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.6% | +2.7% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Ethereum (ETH) | — | +1.9% | +24.1% | +8.7% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.6% | −8.4% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.4% | +10.3% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 37 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 65% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 24 of the 37 measured past cases of funding extreme highs of large-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 16, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 51% to 76% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 37.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 59% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 73% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 44 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every funding extreme high with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.