PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
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Pattern · usage surges · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-14

Usage surges of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: all 90 measured cases

usage surge category · othersize · smallbtc trend · up⚠ flipped on recent cases 134 cases on record last 5 cases: 2 up

Explained and tested in our research: What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a usage surge?

higher the next day

49%

44 of 90 past cases

49% of past cases were higher (90% range 40-57%)

90% range 40%–57%

higher after 30 days

56%

50 of 89 cases measured after 30 days

56% of past cases were higher (90% range 47-65%)

90% range 47%–65% · typical move +4.6%

typical next day
−0.1%
typical after 30 days
+4.6%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
−2.9%
best after 30 days
+201.0%
worst after 30 days
−54.9%
30 days: up · sideways · down
44 · 11 · 34

⚠ recent-cases check · flipped: 48% → 50% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

USAGE UPall usage surges against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
+6+1…+10
7 days
+3−2…+8
30 days
+9+4…+14

After usage surges, the price was higher 30 days later in 50% of 505 cases on 392 separate days, against 42% of the same coins' ordinary days: +9 points (95% range +4 to +14; older half +9, newer half +8). The edge is clear the next day too. Coin by coin, it is a likely driver on 5 coins.

Every past usage surge, 30 days on 89 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 41 rose · ▼ 28 fell · ◆ 20 sideways (±9.7% over 30 days)

Each line is one past usage surge: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · 80 of the 89 cases measured that far, evenly through their dates · past cases, not a projection

Usage surges of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 90 of the 134 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 44 of those 90 closed higher — a base rate of 49%, with a 90% range of 40% to 57%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up90 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

Usage surges of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 90 of the 134 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 44 of those 90 closed higher — a base rate of 49%, with a 90% range of 40% to 57%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.

  • By day 30, 50 of the 89 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (56%).
  • The typical day-30 move was +4.6%, the best +201.0% and the worst −54.9%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −2.9% vs BTC and beat it in 47.2% of 89 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 48% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running

  • 3 days ago · EIGEN Eigenlayer next day +1.2% · 30 days lands
  • 17 days ago · CHIP USD.AI next day −9.7% · 7 days +0.3% · 30 days lands

NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled usage surge can be matched to this pattern before it happens.

Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Usage surges of small-cap tokens outside the big categories →

Every past case134 cases

Every past usage surge behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 134 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

134 past cases of usage surges of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with btc above its 50-day average, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2026
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 5.7% of circ. +1.2% in 27 days in 27 days up next day
USD.AI (CHIP) 2.4% of circ. −9.7% in 13 days in 13 days down next day
Stargate Finance (STG) 2.2% of circ. +2.2% +11.6% +3.9% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) 2.0% of circ. −0.6% +62.4% +56.0% sideways next day
Meteora (MET) 2.1% of circ. −10.5% +58.0% +50.7% down next day
USD.AI (CHIP) 2.1% of circ. +2.9% +19.5% +14.3% up next day
Velo (VELO) 2.0% of circ. +3.1% +22.4% +15.3% up next day
edgeX (EDGE) 2.0% of circ. −4.3% +39.3% +32.4% down next day
MetaMask USD (MUSD) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Orca (ORCA) 2.7% of circ. −3.0% +18.6% +10.1% down next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) 2.7% of circ. −1.7% +18.6% +6.7% down next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) 2.4% of circ. −0.0% +37.7% +25.8% sideways next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 2.3% of circ. −0.3% +14.7% +4.1% sideways next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 2.4% of circ. +5.6% +9.7% −13.6% up next day
USD.AI (CHIP) 2.2% of circ. −3.3% +65.6% +43.8% down next day
GMX (GMX) 2.0% of circ. +2.6% −7.9% +9.2% up next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 2.2% of circ. +8.4% −8.3% +12.6% up next day
yearn.finance (YFI) 2.1% of circ. −0.3% −12.2% −3.5% sideways next day
USD.AI (CHIP) 2.3% of circ. +1.1% −38.9% −36.4% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) 3.8% of circ. −2.5% −8.8% −7.0% down next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) 2.0% of circ. −4.2% +21.0% +12.0% down next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) 2.1% of circ. +1.2% +34.0% +13.7% up next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 2.8% of circ. −8.9% −47.4% −19.5% down next day
THORChain (RUNE) 3.1% of circ. −5.2% −39.8% −11.9% down next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) 2.3% of circ. +4.1% −42.7% −14.7% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.1% of circ. +3.1% −25.9% −1.7% up next day
2025
Reserve Rights (RSR) 2.0% of circ. −31.7% −23.7% −6.6% down next day
Huma Finance (HUMA) 2.2% of circ. +8.0% −28.1% −20.9% up next day
Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.2% of circ. +1.0% −20.0% −19.6% up next day
Stargate Finance (STG) 2.4% of circ. −8.6% −3.9% −3.0% down next day
LayerZero (ZRO) 5.8% of circ. −7.4% −10.8% −7.4% down next day
USD.AI (CHIP) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 2.4% of circ. +6.6% −13.3% −10.6% up next day
GMX (GMX) 2.2% of circ. +4.3% +1.8% +6.0% up next day
SUN (SUN) 2.1% of circ. +4.2% +23.1% +29.5% up next day
MetaMask USD (MUSD) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Orca (ORCA) 2.1% of circ. +14.3% −10.0% −5.8% up next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 2.6% of circ. +2.2% −7.1% −6.0% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.1% of circ. −5.3% −7.6% −7.3% down next day
Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
yearn.finance (YFI) 2.1% of circ. +10.5% +8.0% +0.9% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 2.4% of circ. −3.6% +50.4% +39.5% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.0% of circ. −5.9% −16.9% −29.7% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Velo (VELO) 2.1% of circ. — −1.1% −2.9% not measured yet
SUN (SUN) 2.0% of circ. −2.1% −9.8% −11.7% down next day
Fluid (FLUID) 2.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) 2.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
yearn.finance (YFI) 2.4% of circ. −1.9% +32.5% +9.0% down next day
GMX (GMX) 2.1% of circ. +2.7% +12.2% −11.0% up next day
Bybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 2.1% of circ. +20.0% −35.1% −22.4% up next day
Jito (JTO) 2.4% of circ. −6.3% −1.9% +7.5% down next day
Stargate Finance (STG) 2.2% of circ. +2.4% −24.3% −14.9% up next day
Orca (ORCA) 2.2% of circ. −15.5% −54.9% −46.4% down next day
2024
Reserve Rights (RSR) 2.5% of circ. +30.5% +16.4% +7.4% up next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 2.4% of circ. +2.4% −39.3% −32.5% up next day
Convex Finance (CVX) 2.1% of circ. +25.1% +65.3% +67.3% up next day
PulseX (PLSX) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Axie Infinity (AXS) 2.6% of circ. +31.6% +5.9% +10.0% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 2.0% of circ. +8.4% +79.0% +82.2% up next day
Jito (JTO) 2.0% of circ. +1.7% +4.6% −6.9% up next day
MetaMask USD (MUSD) 2.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Venus (XVS) 2.2% of circ. +1.0% +32.8% +15.7% up next day
SUN (SUN) 2.2% of circ. −5.8% +8.4% −8.1% down next day
GMX (GMX) 2.2% of circ. −0.8% +34.3% +22.1% sideways next day
THORChain (RUNE) 2.3% of circ. −7.3% +12.4% −3.0% down next day
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) 2.3% of circ. +4.6% +22.7% −3.2% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) 3.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Venus (XVS) 2.5% of circ. +1.5% +11.6% −30.1% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 2.1% of circ. −3.8% −1.8% −16.1% down next day
Jito (JTO) 2.1% of circ. −10.0% +0.1% −10.9% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
LayerZero (ZRO) 2.0% of circ. −6.1% −13.5% −20.0% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Jito (JTO) 2.1% of circ. −10.8% −25.9% −17.1% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 3.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Compound (COMP) 2.0% of circ. −0.2% −18.8% −21.3% sideways next day
Jito (JTO) 2.1% of circ. −1.7% +30.9% +27.1% down next day
Fluid (FLUID) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Kamino (KMNO) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) 2.2% of circ. −8.1% −13.2% −17.7% down next day
yearn.finance (YFI) 2.5% of circ. +4.5% +3.9% −7.5% up next day
Venus (XVS) 2.0% of circ. −1.5% +24.4% +1.9% down next day
THORChain (RUNE) 2.1% of circ. +0.3% +56.4% +33.0% sideways next day
SUN (SUN) 2.0% of circ. +4.6% +117.8% +77.9% up next day
Kamino (KMNO) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2023
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) 3.8% of circ. +4.6% −11.7% −3.0% up next day
Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DYDX Chain (DYDX) 2.5% of circ. +7.8% +3.9% +5.3% up next day
Jito (JTO) 2.5% of circ. −12.2% −5.2% −8.6% down next day
Venus (XVS) 2.1% of circ. +1.9% +17.3% +20.3% up next day
Kamino (KMNO) 2.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
yearn.finance (YFI) 2.1% of circ. +6.2% −13.1% −14.6% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Kamino (KMNO) 3.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 3.3% of circ. −4.5% +13.9% −1.7% down next day
Axie Infinity (AXS) 2.0% of circ. +12.5% +32.9% +21.9% up next day
Jito (JTO) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
MetaMask USD (MUSD) 2.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
GMX (GMX) 2.0% of circ. +4.8% +32.9% +8.2% up next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 2.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 2.6% of circ. +1.3% +38.7% +11.6% up next day
Jito (JTO) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 2.0% of circ. −1.6% +60.5% +73.0% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 6.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) 2.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 6.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Axie Infinity (AXS) 2.1% of circ. −2.9% −7.4% −10.3% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 174.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
MetaMask USD (MUSD) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Axie Infinity (AXS) 3.0% of circ. −3.5% −15.3% −17.7% down next day
THORChain (RUNE) 2.1% of circ. −2.8% +3.5% −13.0% down next day
2022
yearn.finance (YFI) 2.7% of circ. +4.7% −22.0% −3.0% up next day
2021
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 2.3% of circ. −25.1% −42.3% −12.7% down next day
yearn.finance (YFI) 2.2% of circ. −2.8% −11.6% −5.5% down next day
THORChain (RUNE) 2.1% of circ. −2.9% +51.6% +48.4% down next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 3.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Axie Infinity (AXS) 2.2% of circ. −11.5% +42.9% +29.4% down next day
Compound (COMP) 2.0% of circ. +21.6% +201.0% +185.5% up next day
yearn.finance (YFI) 2.2% of circ. +8.9% +47.6% +37.3% up next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2020
yearn.finance (YFI) 2.4% of circ. −7.6% +71.8% +40.4% down next day
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 3.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) 4.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2019
Compound (COMP) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 90 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answers generated from this count

What does the 49% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 44 of the 90 measured past cases of usage surges of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 40% to 57% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 90.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 48% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 50% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 134 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every usage surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.