PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
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Pattern · usage surges · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-14

Usage surges of mid-cap tokens: all 117 measured cases

usage surge size · mid⚠ flipped on recent cases 141 cases on record last 5 cases: 2 up

Explained and tested in our research: What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a usage surge?

higher the next day

50%

58 of 117 past cases

50% of past cases were higher (90% range 42-57%)

90% range 42%–57%

higher after 30 days

58%

68 of 117 cases measured after 30 days

58% of past cases were higher (90% range 51-65%)

90% range 51%–65% · typical move +3.3%

typical next day
−0.2%
typical after 30 days
+3.3%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
+0.3%
best after 30 days
+374.3%
worst after 30 days
−51.5%
30 days: up · sideways · down
53 · 21 · 43

⚠ recent-cases check · flipped: 57% → 38% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

USAGE UPall usage surges against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
+6+1…+10
7 days
+3−2…+8
30 days
+9+4…+14

After usage surges, the price was higher 30 days later in 50% of 505 cases on 392 separate days, against 42% of the same coins' ordinary days: +9 points (95% range +4 to +14; older half +9, newer half +8). The edge is clear the next day too. Coin by coin, it is a likely driver on 5 coins.

Every past usage surge, 30 days on 117 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 47 rose · ▼ 34 fell · ◆ 36 sideways (±11% over 30 days)

Each line is one past usage surge: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · 80 of the 117 cases measured that far, evenly through their dates · past cases, not a projection

Usage surges of mid-cap tokens: 117 of the 141 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 58 of those 117 closed higher — a base rate of 50%, with a 90% range of 42% to 57%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up117 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

Usage surges of mid-cap tokens: 117 of the 141 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 58 of those 117 closed higher — a base rate of 50%, with a 90% range of 42% to 57%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.

  • By day 30, 68 of the 117 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (58%).
  • The typical day-30 move was +3.3%, the best +374.3% and the worst −51.5%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran +0.3% vs BTC and beat it in 52.1% of 117 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 57% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 38% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running

  • 5 days ago · VVV Venice Token next day −0.2% · 30 days lands

NO DATA YET No scheduled usage surge meets every condition of this pattern as of Oct 14, 2026.

Every past case141 cases

Every past usage surge behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 141 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

141 past cases of usage surges of mid-cap tokens, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2026
Venice Token (VVV) 2.7% of circ. −0.2% in 25 days in 25 days sideways next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.5% of circ. −2.2% +1.3% −4.7% down next day
Venice Token (VVV) 2.8% of circ. +3.7% +0.5% −5.5% up next day
Raydium (RAY) 2.6% of circ. +6.3% +98.3% +95.0% up next day
Render (RENDER) 2.1% of circ. −5.0% +18.4% +15.1% down next day
Arbitrum (ARB) 2.3% of circ. +31.0% +140.7% +133.0% up next day
Aster (ASTER) 2.1% of circ. −4.3% +1.4% −5.4% down next day
Aerodrome Finance (AERO) 2.2% of circ. −5.1% +27.4% +20.5% down next day
Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) 2.0% of circ. −2.4% +34.1% +25.5% down next day
Lighter (LIT) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.3% of circ. +17.7% +24.3% +13.2% up next day
Venice Token (VVV) 3.5% of circ. +5.1% +128.5% +107.7% up next day
Raydium (RAY) 2.0% of circ. +1.8% +88.4% +66.5% up next day
Pyth Network (PYTH) 4.0% of circ. −3.1% +40.4% +17.0% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.5% of circ. −1.9% +40.9% +13.0% down next day
Render (RENDER) 4.7% of circ. +2.4% −14.8% −14.6% up next day
Arbitrum (ARB) 137.8% of circ. −1.1% −20.5% −20.0% down next day
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) 2.6% of circ. −6.2% −9.3% −9.0% down next day
Venice Token (VVV) 5.0% of circ. −5.5% +6.3% +6.6% down next day
Pyth Network (PYTH) 8.3% of circ. +18.8% +4.2% +2.6% up next day
Venice Token (VVV) 3.1% of circ. −4.4% −27.1% −31.1% down next day
Lighter (LIT) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Morpho (MORPHO) 2.3% of circ. +9.1% +22.2% +18.1% up next day
Pyth Network (PYTH) 2.3% of circ. −13.8% +3.6% +5.2% down next day
JUST (JST) 2.5% of circ. −0.5% −12.4% +8.4% sideways next day
Venice Token (VVV) 4.3% of circ. +7.9% +19.5% +40.9% up next day
Raydium (RAY) 2.0% of circ. +6.4% −30.9% −5.6% up next day
Pyth Network (PYTH) 9.3% of circ. +6.4% −29.0% −8.9% up next day
Aave (AAVE) 2.1% of circ. −0.2% −9.3% −7.7% sideways next day
Render (RENDER) 2.5% of circ. −4.8% −5.6% −15.8% down next day
Venice Token (VVV) 4.4% of circ. +7.0% +128.1% +116.0% up next day
Pyth Network (PYTH) 4.0% of circ. −1.7% +19.4% +0.1% down next day
Venice Token (VVV) 6.3% of circ. +12.0% +38.2% +33.9% up next day
Pyth Network (PYTH) 5.9% of circ. −5.7% −19.4% −12.0% down next day
Render (RENDER) 2.3% of circ. +4.3% +44.7% +46.8% up next day
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) 2.0% of circ. −7.0% +7.9% +6.4% down next day
Venice Token (VVV) 3.0% of circ. −0.2% +250.4% +247.4% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) 2.1% of circ. −1.3% −6.4% −3.4% down next day
Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) 2.1% of circ. −5.5% −4.8% −1.7% down next day
Morpho (MORPHO) 2.1% of circ. −0.6% +52.5% +60.6% sideways next day
Pyth Network (PYTH) 5.4% of circ. −20.0% −4.8% +5.3% down next day
Venice Token (VVV) 5.8% of circ. +2.8% −39.6% −12.2% up next day
Raydium (RAY) 2.0% of circ. −3.8% −49.3% −25.2% down next day
2025
Render (RENDER) 2.1% of circ. −0.6% +35.4% +38.4% sideways next day
JUST (JST) 2.2% of circ. +0.9% +0.3% −9.2% sideways next day
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) 2.8% of circ. +5.8% −29.9% −10.0% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.1% of circ. −4.4% −6.3% +0.3% down next day
Pump.fun (PUMP) 2.0% of circ. −12.5% −51.5% −43.6% down next day
Aster (ASTER) 2.1% of circ. — +69.4% +71.9% not measured yet
Aerodrome Finance (AERO) 4.0% of circ. −6.0% −25.5% −24.8% down next day
Render (RENDER) 2.2% of circ. −4.9% −5.8% −5.5% down next day
Aster (ASTER) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) 2.0% of circ. +8.4% +3.3% +0.8% up next day
Pump.fun (PUMP) 2.2% of circ. +15.1% +71.5% +74.2% up next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 3.8% of circ. −1.7% −11.2% −9.8% down next day
Ethena (ENA) 2.0% of circ. +26.0% +73.6% +75.0% up next day
Raydium (RAY) 3.2% of circ. +17.5% +25.1% +18.0% up next day
Aster (ASTER) 5.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Aster (ASTER) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Raydium (RAY) 2.1% of circ. −5.2% −3.1% −14.2% down next day
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) 2.1% of circ. +9.7% +60.7% +49.6% up next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.0% of circ. +11.6% +39.7% +8.9% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.1% of circ. −1.1% −23.2% −32.1% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.8% of circ. +42.7% −13.5% +3.2% up next day
Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) 2.0% of circ. −5.0% −43.7% −31.0% down next day
Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) 2.0% of circ. +5.7% −1.0% +5.9% up next day
Raydium (RAY) 2.4% of circ. +6.8% −37.6% −33.8% up next day
Pump.fun (PUMP) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) 2.0% of circ. +15.6% −49.8% −59.2% up next day
2024
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) 3.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.2% of circ. +10.2% +269.2% +252.7% up next day
Ethena (ENA) 2.6% of circ. +3.3% +120.6% +104.1% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.1% of circ. +9.2% +88.5% +68.9% up next day
Raydium (RAY) 2.2% of circ. +4.3% +17.8% −1.8% up next day
Aster (ASTER) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) 2.2% of circ. −8.7% −3.7% −19.0% down next day
Pump.fun (PUMP) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) 4.7% of circ. −2.0% +34.1% −2.6% down next day
Ether.fi (ETHFI) 2.3% of circ. +1.6% +27.9% −13.8% up next day
Pump.fun (PUMP) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Raydium (RAY) 2.0% of circ. +4.1% +86.3% +75.9% up next day
Ethena (ENA) 2.0% of circ. +7.9% +3.4% −3.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) 2.8% of circ. −2.1% +22.4% +26.1% down next day
Morpho (MORPHO) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Aster (ASTER) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Ether.fi (ETHFI) 3.0% of circ. +1.1% −43.6% −29.6% up next day
Raydium (RAY) 2.3% of circ. −3.4% +12.9% +30.5% down next day
Ethena (ENA) 2.0% of circ. −0.2% −29.4% −22.3% sideways next day
Raydium (RAY) 2.4% of circ. −1.4% +11.2% +5.0% down next day
Ethena (ENA) 2.2% of circ. +10.6% −31.7% −19.7% up next day
Pump.fun (PUMP) 5.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
JUST (JST) 2.2% of circ. +2.7% −11.8% −5.3% up next day
Morpho (MORPHO) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.2% of circ. +7.4% −14.2% −19.3% up next day
Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) 2.1% of circ. +22.1% +140.2% +135.9% up next day
Raydium (RAY) 2.2% of circ. +5.3% +89.1% +88.7% up next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.1% of circ. −8.9% +19.7% +15.2% down next day
Aerodrome Finance (AERO) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Aerodrome Finance (AERO) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Ethena (ENA) 2.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) 2.0% of circ. −4.2% +2.2% −46.0% down next day
Ethena (ENA) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2023
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.3% of circ. −1.6% −29.0% −27.8% down next day
Aerodrome Finance (AERO) 2.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Raydium (RAY) 2.1% of circ. +23.8% +73.6% +73.6% up next day
Aave (AAVE) 2.1% of circ. −7.7% +9.4% −7.5% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.1% of circ. −9.0% +3.0% −20.5% down next day
Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) 104.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.1% of circ. +6.7% +14.4% +5.0% up next day
Raydium (RAY) 2.1% of circ. +8.1% +110.8% +99.6% up next day
Raydium (RAY) 2.0% of circ. −0.7% +45.2% +17.4% sideways next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 3.2% of circ. −2.8% +1.3% +0.8% down next day
Aave (AAVE) 2.1% of circ. +0.7% −13.9% −2.6% sideways next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.0% of circ. −4.2% −38.3% −26.1% down next day
Raydium (RAY) 2.0% of circ. −2.0% +3.9% +5.8% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 5.9% of circ. +1.0% +2.3% +5.0% sideways next day
Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) 3.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.4% of circ. +0.5% −16.1% −12.3% sideways next day
Raydium (RAY) 2.2% of circ. −9.7% −10.8% −3.5% down next day
Raydium (RAY) 2.2% of circ. +4.9% +9.8% −15.0% up next day
Aave (AAVE) 2.3% of circ. −2.8% +6.8% −19.1% down next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.1% of circ. +13.6% +18.4% −29.3% up next day
Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) 2962.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.2% of circ. +8.3% +32.8% +26.8% up next day
Raydium (RAY) 2.3% of circ. −2.3% +63.9% +27.6% down next day
2022
Raydium (RAY) 4.1% of circ. −4.7% −34.5% −35.9% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.1% of circ. +7.4% +4.2% −3.4% up next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.7% of circ. +0.4% −25.1% −11.7% sideways next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.2% of circ. −2.3% +102.9% +93.3% down next day
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.2% of circ. +8.3% −24.8% −1.6% up next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.2% of circ. −33.9% −48.0% −41.8% down next day
PAX Gold (PAXG) 2.0% of circ. +0.4% +2.7% +9.7% sideways next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.3% of circ. +9.1% −16.3% −30.7% up next day
2021
PancakeSwap (CAKE) 2.1% of circ. +2.2% −40.8% −21.3% up next day
PAX Gold (PAXG) 2.1% of circ. −3.7% −2.5% +19.3% down next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.0% of circ. −0.9% −9.7% +0.3% sideways next day
Aave (AAVE) 2.0% of circ. −7.1% −20.3% +13.2% down next day
Aave (AAVE) 8.0% of circ. −6.4% −13.5% −50.3% down next day
Aave (AAVE) 6.8% of circ. +15.0% +342.9% +328.6% up next day
Curve DAO Token (CRV) 2.3% of circ. +4.1% +374.3% +361.5% up next day
2020
Sky (SKY) 8.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 117 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answers generated from this count

What does the 50% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 58 of the 117 measured past cases of usage surges of mid-cap tokens closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 42% to 57% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 117.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 57% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 38% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 141 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every usage surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.