How often it went up44 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Usage surges of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average: 44 of the 49 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 17 of those 44 closed higher — a base rate of 39%, with a 90% range of 28% to 51%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 21 of the 44 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (48%).
- The typical day-30 move was −3.6%, the best +250.4% and the worst −49.8%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran +0.2% vs BTC and beat it in 52.3% of 44 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 50% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 22% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled usage surge can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Usage surges of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case49 cases
Every past usage surge behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 49 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | 2.6% of circ. | −6.2% | −9.3% | −9.0% | down next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | 5.0% of circ. | −5.5% | +6.3% | +6.6% | down next day | |
| Pyth Network (PYTH) | 8.3% of circ. | +18.8% | +4.2% | +2.6% | up next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | 3.1% of circ. | −4.4% | −27.1% | −31.1% | down next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 2.3% of circ. | +9.1% | +22.2% | +18.1% | up next day | |
| Pyth Network (PYTH) | 2.3% of circ. | −13.8% | +3.6% | +5.2% | down next day | |
| JUST (JST) | 2.5% of circ. | −0.5% | −12.4% | +8.4% | sideways next day | |
| Pyth Network (PYTH) | 4.0% of circ. | −1.7% | +19.4% | +0.1% | down next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | 6.3% of circ. | +12.0% | +38.2% | +33.9% | up next day | |
| Pyth Network (PYTH) | 5.9% of circ. | −5.7% | −19.4% | −12.0% | down next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | 2.3% of circ. | +4.3% | +44.7% | +46.8% | up next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | 2.0% of circ. | −7.0% | +7.9% | +6.4% | down next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | 3.0% of circ. | −0.2% | +250.4% | +247.4% | sideways next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | 2.1% of circ. | −1.3% | −6.4% | −3.4% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 2.1% of circ. | −5.5% | −4.8% | −1.7% | down next day | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 2.1% of circ. | −0.6% | +52.5% | +60.6% | sideways next day | |
| Pyth Network (PYTH) | 5.4% of circ. | −20.0% | −4.8% | +5.3% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Render (RENDER) | 2.1% of circ. | −0.6% | +35.4% | +38.4% | sideways next day | |
| JUST (JST) | 2.2% of circ. | +0.9% | +0.3% | −9.2% | sideways next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | 2.8% of circ. | +5.8% | −29.9% | −10.0% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 2.1% of circ. | −4.4% | −6.3% | +0.3% | down next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | 2.2% of circ. | −4.9% | −5.8% | −5.5% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.0% of circ. | +11.6% | +39.7% | +8.9% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 2.1% of circ. | −1.1% | −23.2% | −32.1% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 2.8% of circ. | +42.7% | −13.5% | +3.2% | up next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | 2.0% of circ. | +15.6% | −49.8% | −59.2% | up next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Aave (AAVE) | 2.8% of circ. | −2.1% | +22.4% | +26.1% | down next day | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.4% of circ. | −1.4% | +11.2% | +5.0% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 2.0% of circ. | −4.2% | +2.2% | −46.0% | down next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 3.2% of circ. | −2.8% | +1.3% | +0.8% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | 2.1% of circ. | +0.7% | −13.9% | −2.6% | sideways next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.4% of circ. | +0.5% | −16.1% | −12.3% | sideways next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.2% of circ. | −9.7% | −10.8% | −3.5% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.1% of circ. | +13.6% | +18.4% | −29.3% | up next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 2962.9% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Raydium (RAY) | 4.1% of circ. | −4.7% | −34.5% | −35.9% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 2.1% of circ. | +7.4% | +4.2% | −3.4% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.7% of circ. | +0.4% | −25.1% | −11.7% | sideways next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.2% of circ. | −2.3% | +102.9% | +93.3% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 2.2% of circ. | +8.3% | −24.8% | −1.6% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.2% of circ. | −33.9% | −48.0% | −41.8% | down next day | |
| PAX Gold (PAXG) | 2.0% of circ. | +0.4% | +2.7% | +9.7% | sideways next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.3% of circ. | +9.1% | −16.3% | −30.7% | up next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| PAX Gold (PAXG) | 2.1% of circ. | −3.7% | −2.5% | +19.3% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.0% of circ. | −0.9% | −9.7% | +0.3% | sideways next day | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Sky (SKY) | 8.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 44 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 39% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 17 of the 44 measured past cases of usage surges of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 28% to 51% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 44.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 50% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 22% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 49 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every usage surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.