How often it went up24 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Usage surges of L1 and L2 tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 24 of the 24 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 15 of those 24 closed higher — a base rate of 62%, with a 90% range of 46% to 77%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 15 of the 23 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (65%).
- The typical day-30 move was +17.9%, the best +140.7% and the worst −20.9%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran 0.0% vs BTC and beat it in 17.4% of 23 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 64% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 60% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 3 days ago · ADA Cardano next day −6.5% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled usage surge can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Usage surges of L1 and L2 tokens →
Every past case24 cases
Every past usage surge behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 24 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Cardano (ADA) | 4.2% of circ. | −6.5% | in 27 days | in 27 days | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | 2.3% of circ. | +31.0% | +140.7% | +133.0% | up next day | |
| Monad (MON) | 2.1% of circ. | −9.6% | −20.9% | −27.7% | down next day | |
| Monad (MON) | 2.0% of circ. | −2.5% | −17.3% | −26.3% | down next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Cardano (ADA) | 2.2% of circ. | −5.7% | +83.2% | +70.3% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.6% of circ. | +4.6% | +39.2% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.2% of circ. | +0.3% | −1.1% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.9% of circ. | +0.3% | −16.2% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.3% of circ. | +3.8% | −1.5% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Cardano (ADA) | 2.1% of circ. | +21.2% | +5.7% | −6.6% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.4% of circ. | +4.7% | +22.7% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.3% of circ. | +0.0% | −6.0% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Cardano (ADA) | 2.1% of circ. | −11.2% | +15.6% | +13.2% | down next day | |
| Cardano (ADA) | 2.6% of circ. | +11.9% | +26.2% | +13.7% | up next day | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.1% of circ. | +11.6% | +36.0% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.0% of circ. | +2.5% | +35.1% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.1% of circ. | +4.1% | +23.2% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.2% of circ. | −1.1% | +6.1% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| 2019 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.3% of circ. | +10.8% | +26.6% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.4% of circ. | +3.0% | +17.9% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| 2018 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.3% of circ. | −1.1% | −20.2% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| 2017 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.0% of circ. | −3.3% | −20.2% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.0% of circ. | +4.9% | +138.5% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.0% of circ. | −1.0% | +36.6% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 24 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 62% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 15 of the 24 measured past cases of usage surges of L1 and L2 tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 46% to 77% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 24.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 64% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 60% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 24 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every usage surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.