How often it went up72 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Usage surges of mid-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 72 of the 89 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 41 of those 72 closed higher — a base rate of 57%, with a 90% range of 47% to 66%, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- By day 30, 47 of the 72 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (65%).
- The typical day-30 move was +11.4%, the best +374.3% and the worst −51.5%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran +5.0% vs BTC and beat it in 52.8% of 72 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 60% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 52% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 5 days ago · VVV Venice Token next day −0.2% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled usage surge can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Usage surges of mid-cap tokens →
Every past case89 cases
Every past usage surge behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 89 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Venice Token (VVV) | 2.7% of circ. | −0.2% | in 25 days | in 25 days | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 2.5% of circ. | −2.2% | +1.3% | −4.7% | down next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | 2.8% of circ. | +3.7% | +0.5% | −5.5% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.6% of circ. | +6.3% | +98.3% | +95.0% | up next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | 2.1% of circ. | −5.0% | +18.4% | +15.1% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | 2.3% of circ. | +31.0% | +140.7% | +133.0% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 2.1% of circ. | −4.3% | +1.4% | −5.4% | down next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | 2.2% of circ. | −5.1% | +27.4% | +20.5% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 2.0% of circ. | −2.4% | +34.1% | +25.5% | down next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.3% of circ. | +17.7% | +24.3% | +13.2% | up next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | 3.5% of circ. | +5.1% | +128.5% | +107.7% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.0% of circ. | +1.8% | +88.4% | +66.5% | up next day | |
| Pyth Network (PYTH) | 4.0% of circ. | −3.1% | +40.4% | +17.0% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 2.5% of circ. | −1.9% | +40.9% | +13.0% | down next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | 4.7% of circ. | +2.4% | −14.8% | −14.6% | up next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | 4.3% of circ. | +7.9% | +19.5% | +40.9% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.0% of circ. | +6.4% | −30.9% | −5.6% | up next day | |
| Pyth Network (PYTH) | 9.3% of circ. | +6.4% | −29.0% | −8.9% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | 2.1% of circ. | −0.2% | −9.3% | −7.7% | sideways next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | 2.5% of circ. | −4.8% | −5.6% | −15.8% | down next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | 4.4% of circ. | +7.0% | +128.1% | +116.0% | up next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | 5.8% of circ. | +2.8% | −39.6% | −12.2% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.0% of circ. | −3.8% | −49.3% | −25.2% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | 2.0% of circ. | −12.5% | −51.5% | −43.6% | down next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 2.1% of circ. | — | +69.4% | +71.9% | not measured yet | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | 4.0% of circ. | −6.0% | −25.5% | −24.8% | down next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | 2.0% of circ. | +8.4% | +3.3% | +0.8% | up next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | 2.2% of circ. | +15.1% | +71.5% | +74.2% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 3.8% of circ. | −1.7% | −11.2% | −9.8% | down next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 2.0% of circ. | +26.0% | +73.6% | +75.0% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 3.2% of circ. | +17.5% | +25.1% | +18.0% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 5.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.1% of circ. | −5.2% | −3.1% | −14.2% | down next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | 2.1% of circ. | +9.7% | +60.7% | +49.6% | up next day | |
| Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) | 2.0% of circ. | −5.0% | −43.7% | −31.0% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 2.0% of circ. | +5.7% | −1.0% | +5.9% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.4% of circ. | +6.8% | −37.6% | −33.8% | up next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | 3.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.2% of circ. | +10.2% | +269.2% | +252.7% | up next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 2.6% of circ. | +3.3% | +120.6% | +104.1% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 2.1% of circ. | +9.2% | +88.5% | +68.9% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.2% of circ. | +4.3% | +17.8% | −1.8% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 2.2% of circ. | −8.7% | −3.7% | −19.0% | down next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | 2.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) | 4.7% of circ. | −2.0% | +34.1% | −2.6% | down next day | |
| Ether.fi (ETHFI) | 2.3% of circ. | +1.6% | +27.9% | −13.8% | up next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.0% of circ. | +4.1% | +86.3% | +75.9% | up next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 2.0% of circ. | +7.9% | +3.4% | −3.0% | up next day | |
| Ether.fi (ETHFI) | 3.0% of circ. | +1.1% | −43.6% | −29.6% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.3% of circ. | −3.4% | +12.9% | +30.5% | down next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 2.0% of circ. | −0.2% | −29.4% | −22.3% | sideways next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 2.2% of circ. | +10.6% | −31.7% | −19.7% | up next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | 5.7% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| JUST (JST) | 2.2% of circ. | +2.7% | −11.8% | −5.3% | up next day | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.2% of circ. | +7.4% | −14.2% | −19.3% | up next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 2.1% of circ. | +22.1% | +140.2% | +135.9% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.2% of circ. | +5.3% | +89.1% | +88.7% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 2.1% of circ. | −8.9% | +19.7% | +15.2% | down next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 2.3% of circ. | −1.6% | −29.0% | −27.8% | down next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | 2.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.1% of circ. | +23.8% | +73.6% | +73.6% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | 2.1% of circ. | −7.7% | +9.4% | −7.5% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 2.1% of circ. | −9.0% | +3.0% | −20.5% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 104.6% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.1% of circ. | +6.7% | +14.4% | +5.0% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.1% of circ. | +8.1% | +110.8% | +99.6% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.0% of circ. | −0.7% | +45.2% | +17.4% | sideways next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.0% of circ. | −4.2% | −38.3% | −26.1% | down next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.0% of circ. | −2.0% | +3.9% | +5.8% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 5.9% of circ. | +1.0% | +2.3% | +5.0% | sideways next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 3.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.2% of circ. | +4.9% | +9.8% | −15.0% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | 2.3% of circ. | −2.8% | +6.8% | −19.1% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.2% of circ. | +8.3% | +32.8% | +26.8% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | 2.3% of circ. | −2.3% | +63.9% | +27.6% | down next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | 2.1% of circ. | +2.2% | −40.8% | −21.3% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | 2.0% of circ. | −7.1% | −20.3% | +13.2% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | 8.0% of circ. | −6.4% | −13.5% | −50.3% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | 6.8% of circ. | +15.0% | +342.9% | +328.6% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | 2.3% of circ. | +4.1% | +374.3% | +361.5% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 72 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 57% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 41 of the 72 measured past cases of usage surges of mid-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 14, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 47% to 66% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 72.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 60% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 52% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 89 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every usage surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.