How often it went up24 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Usage slumps of L1 and L2 tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 24 of the 24 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 16 of those 24 closed higher — a base rate of 67%, with a 90% range of 50% to 80%, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.
- By day 30, 14 of the 24 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (58%).
- The typical day-30 move was +2.5%, the best +65.6% and the worst −39.8%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran 0.0% vs BTC and beat it in 29.2% of 24 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 71% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 60% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled usage slump can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Usage slumps of L1 and L2 tokens →
Every past case24 cases
Every past usage slump behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 24 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | −7.8% | +8.5% | −5.8% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +4.0% | −8.2% | −14.6% | up next day | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | −11.9% | −19.3% | +3.0% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Monad (MON) | — | +6.1% | −6.7% | −3.8% | up next day | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | +2.5% | +5.5% | +4.6% | up next day | |
| Near Protocol (NEAR) | — | −0.5% | +1.7% | +3.4% | sideways next day | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | −6.8% | −6.4% | −3.4% | down next day | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | +2.5% | −18.0% | −17.2% | up next day | |
| Cardano (ADA) | — | +4.2% | −5.2% | +7.1% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +3.6% | +9.5% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +10.2% | +47.6% | +47.8% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.9% | +9.1% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +8.2% | +14.7% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −3.2% | +10.0% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −4.5% | +10.4% | +10.2% | down next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Cardano (ADA) | — | +2.1% | +31.6% | +40.1% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +4.4% | −30.2% | −12.2% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +8.4% | +65.6% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.5% | −39.8% | −29.8% | sideways next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −15.7% | −12.5% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| 2019 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +0.3% | +1.9% | 0.0% | sideways next day | |
| 2018 | ||||||
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +4.4% | +3.1% | 0.0% | up next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | −2.9% | +45.1% | 0.0% | down next day | |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | — | +2.8% | −14.2% | 0.0% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 24 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 67% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 16 of the 24 measured past cases of usage slumps of L1 and L2 tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 50% to 80% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 24.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 71% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 60% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 24 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every usage slump with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.