How often it went up44 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Usage slumps of mid-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 44 of the 53 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 22 of those 44 closed higher — a base rate of 50%, with a 90% range of 38% to 62%, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.
- By day 30, 16 of the 41 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (39%).
- The typical day-30 move was −8.6%, the best +129.9% and the worst −54.9%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −7.9% vs BTC and beat it in 29.3% of 41 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 42% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 61% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 19 days ago · BTW Bitway next day +13.7% · 7 days +38.4% · 30 days lands
- 19 days ago · RAY Raydium next day +2.3% · 7 days −20.5% · 30 days lands
- 20 days ago · XAUT Tether Gold next day +1.8% · 7 days +1.0% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled usage slump can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Usage slumps of mid-cap tokens →
Every past case53 cases
Every past usage slump behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 53 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Bitway (BTW) | — | +13.7% | in 11 days | in 11 days | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | — | +2.3% | in 11 days | in 11 days | up next day | |
| Tether Gold (XAUT) | — | +1.8% | in 10 days | in 10 days | up next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −1.5% | −10.8% | −12.2% | down next day | |
| USDD (USDD) | — | +0.2% | +0.1% | −7.5% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | +3.2% | +129.9% | +119.4% | up next day | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | +0.9% | +14.7% | −10.2% | sideways next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | — | −4.3% | +61.1% | +36.8% | down next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | +2.5% | +23.7% | +0.5% | up next day | |
| Venice Token (VVV) | — | −5.4% | −25.3% | −7.0% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −8.5% | −30.5% | −11.6% | down next day | |
| Pyth Network (PYTH) | — | −12.7% | −34.6% | −12.5% | down next day | |
| Tether Gold (XAUT) | — | −0.3% | −8.6% | +12.7% | sideways next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | — | +1.3% | +8.2% | +5.9% | up next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | +7.1% | +36.1% | +18.1% | up next day | |
| Tether Gold (XAUT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | — | +4.1% | −40.9% | −19.2% | up next day | |
| Tether Gold (XAUT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | +10.7% | +42.5% | +49.4% | up next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | — | −1.2% | −23.0% | −10.2% | down next day | |
| Render (RENDER) | — | +1.5% | −31.6% | −31.2% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | — | +19.8% | +12.9% | +15.6% | up next day | |
| Tether Gold (XAUT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Render (RENDER) | — | +6.2% | −1.8% | −1.4% | up next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | — | +11.8% | −35.6% | −36.6% | up next day | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | +12.0% | +10.1% | +3.0% | up next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | +1.8% | +9.5% | −0.3% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | — | +10.0% | +10.3% | +5.1% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −10.4% | −28.2% | −30.8% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −3.1% | +12.3% | −3.4% | down next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | −9.8% | −35.2% | −17.3% | down next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | −12.4% | −54.9% | −39.6% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −5.4% | −46.8% | −50.0% | down next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | −6.6% | −5.9% | −11.3% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −13.6% | −13.4% | −23.7% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | — | +6.2% | −33.3% | −16.2% | up next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Raydium (RAY) | — | −2.7% | −20.1% | −11.6% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | — | −22.8% | −21.8% | −7.9% | down next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | — | −3.4% | −24.8% | −15.9% | down next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethena (ENA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethena (ENA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | +4.0% | +13.2% | +1.9% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −4.9% | +18.1% | −8.5% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −1.1% | −14.4% | −4.1% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | +1.6% | +5.3% | +10.3% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −1.7% | −7.6% | −2.2% | down next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | — | +4.7% | −28.1% | −16.8% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −1.4% | −1.4% | −3.0% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −15.8% | −24.6% | −13.6% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 44 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 50% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 22 of the 44 measured past cases of usage slumps of mid-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 38% to 62% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 44.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 42% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 61% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 53 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every usage slump with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.