How often it went up56 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Usage slumps of mid-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 56 of the 67 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 25 of those 56 closed higher — a base rate of 45%, with a 90% range of 34% to 56%, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.
- By day 30, 17 of the 56 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (30%).
- The typical day-30 move was −13.8%, the best +47.6% and the worst −67.9%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −10.0% vs BTC and beat it in 26.8% of 56 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 47% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 41% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled usage slump can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Usage slumps of mid-cap tokens →
Every past case67 cases
Every past usage slump behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 67 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | +6.1% | +0.7% | −4.0% | up next day | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | −7.8% | +8.5% | −5.8% | down next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | — | +1.8% | +10.6% | +6.2% | up next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | −7.0% | −10.9% | −8.2% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +4.0% | −8.2% | −14.6% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | — | −2.9% | −5.2% | −8.7% | down next day | |
| Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) | — | −1.3% | +5.1% | +1.6% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | +1.0% | −4.2% | −7.7% | sideways next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | — | +1.0% | +0.6% | −3.0% | sideways next day | |
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | — | −2.1% | +28.8% | +23.0% | down next day | |
| Tether Gold (XAUT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | −11.9% | −19.3% | +3.0% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | +12.8% | −19.6% | −9.4% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Lighter (LIT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aster (ASTER) | — | −3.5% | −6.2% | −7.7% | down next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | +0.5% | +15.6% | +14.4% | sideways next day | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | +2.5% | +5.5% | +4.6% | up next day | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | −6.8% | −6.4% | −3.4% | down next day | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | — | −2.7% | −22.9% | −21.5% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | — | +11.1% | −12.9% | −15.9% | up next day | |
| Aerodrome Finance (AERO) | — | −0.6% | −39.2% | −36.2% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −3.9% | −20.7% | −18.2% | down next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | −7.8% | −37.1% | −29.0% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | — | −8.8% | −37.6% | −26.0% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −12.6% | −3.5% | +11.9% | down next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | — | +10.6% | −40.4% | −27.0% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | — | −11.6% | −26.2% | −12.8% | down next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +3.9% | +25.1% | +1.4% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | — | −4.9% | −27.3% | −25.2% | down next day | |
| Filecoin (FIL) | — | +2.5% | −18.0% | −17.2% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −16.0% | −13.9% | −1.5% | down next day | |
| Pump.fun (PUMP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Raydium (RAY) | — | +8.4% | −67.9% | −54.1% | up next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | — | −3.5% | +32.9% | +26.6% | down next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethena (ENA) | — | +4.2% | −17.0% | −25.3% | up next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | — | +3.1% | +7.7% | +0.6% | up next day | |
| Morpho (MORPHO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −6.4% | −20.2% | −19.1% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +10.2% | +47.6% | +47.8% | up next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | — | −3.2% | −21.4% | −16.0% | down next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | — | −5.8% | −24.7% | −18.4% | down next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethena (ENA) | — | +3.9% | −14.4% | −24.9% | up next day | |
| Aster (ASTER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | +0.1% | +13.0% | +4.1% | sideways next day | |
| JUST (JST) | — | +0.4% | +36.7% | −11.4% | sideways next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.3% | +21.3% | −14.1% | up next day | |
| PAX Gold (PAXG) | — | −0.3% | −0.0% | −27.2% | sideways next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −2.1% | −7.1% | −8.8% | down next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | — | +2.1% | −13.7% | −2.6% | up next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | +1.9% | −19.4% | −17.2% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −1.1% | −17.9% | −15.8% | down next day | |
| Raydium (RAY) | — | −3.1% | −33.9% | −40.5% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | −4.5% | +10.4% | +10.2% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −12.5% | +27.4% | +20.2% | down next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −1.6% | −28.9% | +1.7% | down next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | +7.3% | −40.2% | −10.6% | up next day | |
| Curve DAO Token (CRV) | — | −11.5% | −27.8% | −24.0% | down next day | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −4.1% | −15.5% | −4.8% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +4.4% | −30.2% | −12.2% | up next day | |
| PancakeSwap (CAKE) | — | −9.7% | −19.3% | −13.9% | down next day | |
| Aave (AAVE) | — | +0.5% | −39.8% | −29.8% | sideways next day | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Sky (SKY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 56 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 45% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 25 of the 56 measured past cases of usage slumps of mid-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 34% to 56% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 56.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 47% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 41% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 67 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every usage slump with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.