How often it went up67 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Usage slumps of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 67 of the 89 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 30 of those 67 closed higher — a base rate of 45%, with a 90% range of 35% to 55%, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.
- By day 30, 26 of the 62 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (42%).
- The typical day-30 move was −3.1%, the best +266.9% and the worst −48.8%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −9.5% vs BTC and beat it in 30.6% of 62 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 52% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 33% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 11 days ago · MET Meteora next day −9.6% · 7 days −15.3% · 30 days lands
- 14 days ago · PLSX PulseX 30 days lands
- 17 days ago · BONK Bonk next day −5.9% · 7 days −13.3% · 30 days lands
- 17 days ago · CHIP USD.AI next day −14.4% · 7 days −39.8% · 30 days lands
- 18 days ago · VIRTUAL Virtuals Protocol next day +2.5% · 7 days −10.0% · 30 days lands
- 20 days ago · RUNE THORChain next day −2.5% · 7 days −10.7% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled usage slump can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Usage slumps of small-cap tokens →
Every past case89 cases
Every past usage slump behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 89 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Meteora (MET) | — | −9.6% | in 19 days | in 19 days | down next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | in 16 days | in 16 days | not measured yet | |
| Bonk (BONK) | — | −5.9% | in 13 days | in 13 days | down next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | −14.4% | in 13 days | in 13 days | down next day | |
| Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) | — | +2.5% | in 12 days | in 12 days | up next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −2.5% | in 10 days | in 10 days | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | −1.1% | −17.5% | −11.7% | down next day | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | — | +15.5% | −0.2% | −7.7% | up next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | — | −12.3% | +23.8% | +17.8% | down next day | |
| Derive (DRV) | — | −8.4% | +136.2% | +129.0% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | −6.7% | +15.3% | +10.0% | down next day | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | — | −0.1% | +7.7% | −15.8% | sideways next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | −2.3% | +5.9% | −15.9% | down next day | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | — | +5.9% | +27.0% | +3.8% | up next day | |
| DoubleZero (2Z) | — | −1.3% | −28.6% | −28.4% | down next day | |
| Bonk (BONK) | — | −9.0% | −36.9% | −33.9% | down next day | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | — | +2.3% | −0.8% | +17.5% | up next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −2.1% | −38.0% | −12.8% | down next day | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | — | +3.7% | +6.1% | +26.1% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | +12.1% | −3.9% | −0.4% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | −2.6% | −32.8% | −29.1% | down next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Velo (VELO) | — | −9.4% | +5.0% | −8.5% | down next day | |
| Bonk (BONK) | — | −3.9% | +17.7% | +6.2% | down next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | −1.0% | −48.8% | −20.8% | sideways next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +1.3% | −24.0% | −10.6% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | +9.1% | −23.2% | −9.9% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| LayerZero (ZRO) | — | −1.7% | −21.9% | −0.1% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | +0.9% | +8.2% | +16.4% | sideways next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bonk (BONK) | — | −8.7% | −16.7% | −12.5% | down next day | |
| Orca (ORCA) | — | −8.1% | −17.8% | −13.6% | down next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | +4.5% | +7.2% | +11.3% | up next day | |
| Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | — | −0.9% | −8.8% | −6.2% | sideways next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | +1.0% | −2.7% | −8.0% | sideways next day | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | +0.3% | +25.5% | +18.9% | sideways next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | −3.2% | +18.5% | +6.1% | down next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | −9.8% | −2.7% | −15.4% | down next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bonk (BONK) | — | +13.8% | +33.4% | +28.2% | up next day | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | — | −9.1% | −23.7% | −22.0% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | +11.0% | +12.8% | +22.4% | up next day | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | — | −2.8% | −40.0% | −33.2% | down next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | +11.0% | +10.3% | +7.9% | up next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | +9.9% | +19.5% | −8.1% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Venus (XVS) | — | +4.9% | +4.5% | +21.2% | up next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | −3.5% | −44.2% | −31.5% | down next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | +5.7% | −6.8% | −2.9% | up next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | — | +21.9% | +61.7% | +18.8% | up next day | |
| Venus (XVS) | — | −4.6% | −6.2% | −42.8% | down next day | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | −1.8% | +16.8% | −18.2% | down next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | −2.9% | +18.5% | +10.4% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | — | +8.2% | −33.1% | −29.6% | up next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | +0.0% | −12.2% | −9.6% | sideways next day | |
| SUN (SUN) | — | +8.0% | −1.5% | +2.5% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −2.5% | −43.6% | −30.8% | down next day | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | — | +1.4% | −24.8% | −16.3% | up next day | |
| Venus (XVS) | — | +0.2% | −34.6% | −26.9% | sideways next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | −3.4% | −40.6% | −34.5% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −5.2% | +23.9% | −21.6% | down next day | |
| Venus (XVS) | — | +0.1% | −3.5% | −25.5% | sideways next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | — | −7.1% | +266.9% | +227.5% | down next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | — | −2.1% | +22.8% | −3.8% | down next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | −6.0% | +4.9% | −21.7% | down next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | +3.5% | −17.9% | −6.5% | up next day | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | +0.2% | −16.1% | −9.3% | sideways next day | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | +2.0% | −20.9% | −15.3% | up next day | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | — | +0.1% | −13.0% | −11.5% | sideways next day | |
| MetaMask USD (MUSD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | — | −6.7% | −20.1% | −36.9% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | — | −1.1% | −27.4% | −6.4% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| yearn.finance (YFI) | — | +4.1% | +10.3% | −14.4% | up next day | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 67 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 45% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 30 of the 67 measured past cases of usage slumps of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 35% to 55% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 67.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 52% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 33% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 89 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every usage slump with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.