How often it went up94 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Usage slumps of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 94 of the 141 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 51 of those 94 closed higher — a base rate of 54%, with a 90% range of 46% to 62%, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.
- By day 30, 40 of the 91 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (44%).
- The typical day-30 move was −5.7%, the best +73.2% and the worst −59.5%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −6.0% vs BTC and beat it in 31.9% of 91 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 50% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 61% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 7 days ago · EDGE Definitive 30 days lands
- 9 days ago · QUICK Quickswap [OLD] 30 days lands
- 18 days ago · BNKR BankrCoin next day +5.8% · 7 days −2.6% · 30 days lands
- 20 days ago · SHROOM MUSHROOM next day −19.8% · 7 days +5.9% · 30 days lands
- 21 days ago · GNS Gains Network next day −5.2% · 7 days +32.5% · 30 days lands
- 21 days ago · LON Tokenlon 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled usage slump can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Usage slumps of micro-cap tokens →
Every past case141 cases
Every past usage slump behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 141 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Definitive (EDGE) | — | — | in 23 days | in 23 days | not measured yet | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | in 21 days | in 21 days | not measured yet | |
| BankrCoin (BNKR) | — | +5.8% | in 12 days | in 12 days | up next day | |
| MUSHROOM (SHROOM) | — | −19.8% | in 10 days | in 10 days | down next day | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | — | −5.2% | in 9 days | in 9 days | down next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | — | — | in 9 days | in 9 days | not measured yet | |
| dHEDGE (DHT) | — | — | in 2 days | in 2 days | not measured yet | |
| stake.link (SDL) | — | — | in 2 days | in 2 days | not measured yet | |
| Mamo (MAMO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gigachad (GIGA) | — | +8.6% | −12.9% | −15.1% | up next day | |
| Symbiosis Finance (SIS) | — | +13.6% | −1.5% | −3.7% | up next day | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | −3.6% | +2.2% | −4.1% | down next day | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | +5.8% | +13.7% | +4.3% | up next day | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | +1.1% | +14.8% | +9.5% | up next day | |
| Usual (USUAL) | — | −5.9% | +2.8% | −2.5% | down next day | |
| Limitless (LMTS) | — | +15.4% | −25.1% | −36.2% | up next day | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | — | −13.7% | −3.7% | −24.8% | down next day | |
| BankrCoin (BNKR) | — | +4.3% | −16.3% | −40.5% | up next day | |
| ApeX Token (APEX) | — | +0.2% | +9.7% | −13.5% | sideways next day | |
| Metaplex (MPLX) | — | −0.4% | +13.9% | −5.5% | sideways next day | |
| Renzo (REZ) | — | +3.5% | +12.8% | +12.9% | up next day | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Limitless (LMTS) | — | +11.8% | −34.2% | −13.2% | up next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | +20.0% | +1.8% | +5.3% | up next day | |
| Mamo (MAMO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Renzo (REZ) | — | +11.8% | −11.8% | −8.3% | up next day | |
| KernelDAO (KERNEL) | — | −6.1% | −13.7% | −12.2% | down next day | |
| Usual (USUAL) | — | −4.4% | +33.4% | +21.3% | down next day | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | +1.1% | +12.0% | −6.0% | up next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Frankencoin (ZCHF) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stader (SD) | — | +0.7% | +5.3% | −9.9% | sideways next day | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | — | +3.8% | −7.4% | +20.5% | up next day | |
| Reservoir (DAM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Solv Protocol (SOLV) | — | −5.8% | −59.5% | −26.5% | down next day | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Veranta (AVNT) | — | −7.7% | −46.0% | −24.3% | down next day | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | −1.0% | −10.1% | +11.6% | down next day | |
| Swell Network (SWELL) | — | +1.1% | −56.4% | −34.7% | up next day | |
| Definitive (EDGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Swell Network (SWELL) | — | +4.4% | −33.5% | −26.4% | up next day | |
| BankrCoin (BNKR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sport.Fun (FUN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | — | −6.9% | −36.3% | −33.8% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Swell Network (SWELL) | — | +14.3% | +0.4% | −2.0% | up next day | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | −8.2% | −8.2% | −2.2% | down next day | |
| StakeWise (SWISE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | +6.2% | −13.8% | −10.8% | up next day | |
| Usual (USUAL) | — | +14.2% | +10.2% | +3.0% | up next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | −6.4% | −25.6% | −29.8% | down next day | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | +9.4% | +34.1% | +26.9% | up next day | |
| Definitive (EDGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | +1.6% | +73.2% | +62.9% | up next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | −1.4% | +36.4% | +26.5% | down next day | |
| Swell Network (SWELL) | — | +3.8% | +51.1% | +38.3% | up next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Solv Protocol (SOLV) | — | +4.1% | +4.9% | −1.7% | up next day | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | +8.2% | −10.1% | −17.7% | up next day | |
| ApeX Token (APEX) | — | +7.6% | −30.9% | −34.4% | up next day | |
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | — | +1.9% | −32.7% | −35.7% | up next day | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | −15.0% | −20.7% | −23.4% | down next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | +4.4% | +2.3% | +4.6% | up next day | |
| Solv Protocol (SOLV) | — | +7.6% | +10.9% | +9.1% | up next day | |
| Dolomite (DOLO) | — | +14.9% | −35.0% | −46.1% | up next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | +0.7% | +5.8% | −5.3% | sideways next day | |
| stake.link (SDL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Usual (USUAL) | — | +12.6% | +5.6% | −20.0% | up next day | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | +5.0% | +46.7% | +21.4% | up next day | |
| Renzo (REZ) | — | +8.3% | −12.8% | +4.2% | up next day | |
| Swell Network (SWELL) | — | +4.5% | −27.1% | −10.3% | up next day | |
| Frankencoin (ZCHF) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | +2.0% | −21.8% | −17.2% | up next day | |
| ApeX Token (APEX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Power Protocol (POWER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SaucerSwap (SAUCE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Solv Protocol (SOLV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | −6.1% | −11.0% | −5.5% | down next day | |
| Renzo (REZ) | — | +2.8% | −39.2% | −32.8% | up next day | |
| dHEDGE (DHT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | +7.9% | +7.1% | −4.5% | up next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | −3.5% | +41.9% | +29.7% | down next day | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | −9.1% | +46.2% | +33.4% | down next day | |
| Renzo (REZ) | — | +6.8% | +52.1% | +15.3% | up next day | |
| Solv Protocol (SOLV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lista DAO (LISTA) | — | +12.9% | +6.5% | −3.1% | up next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | +9.7% | +16.8% | +6.0% | up next day | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | — | +0.4% | −15.5% | −31.4% | sideways next day | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | — | −2.5% | −5.7% | −4.6% | down next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | −11.0% | −37.0% | −26.7% | down next day | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | −3.3% | −21.2% | −9.1% | down next day | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | — | −1.3% | −10.3% | −0.8% | down next day | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | — | −6.3% | −11.7% | −9.9% | down next day | |
| Ankr (ANKR) | — | −2.4% | −25.9% | −13.8% | down next day | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | — | +5.6% | −26.1% | −19.2% | up next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SaucerSwap (SAUCE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | +13.3% | −22.2% | −25.2% | up next day | |
| stake.link (SDL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | −4.0% | +11.0% | −35.5% | down next day | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | −2.8% | +63.6% | +18.0% | down next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | −7.1% | −4.3% | −8.5% | down next day | |
| Metaplex (MPLX) | — | −14.4% | −28.5% | −30.8% | down next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | −5.1% | −19.0% | −21.3% | down next day | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | +6.5% | +0.5% | +4.0% | up next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | +4.3% | −4.1% | −2.7% | up next day | |
| StakeWise (SWISE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | — | +5.3% | +35.7% | +24.3% | up next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | +1.9% | +2.7% | −20.0% | up next day | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | +7.8% | +29.9% | +4.2% | up next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | −6.6% | −0.5% | −30.7% | down next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | −3.3% | +30.7% | +4.0% | down next day | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | — | −5.0% | −13.7% | −1.6% | down next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | −3.5% | −24.1% | −12.0% | down next day | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | −0.6% | +22.0% | +25.1% | sideways next day | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | −9.3% | −24.2% | −11.4% | down next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | −14.7% | −36.7% | −23.9% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | −0.3% | −13.4% | −7.4% | sideways next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | −2.9% | −6.1% | +0.6% | down next day | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | −1.2% | +6.3% | +4.9% | down next day | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | −4.6% | −19.7% | −16.7% | down next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | +2.7% | +57.2% | +23.0% | up next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| BENQI (QI) | — | +0.3% | −56.7% | −36.6% | sideways next day | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Balancer (BAL) | — | −2.8% | −42.2% | −17.3% | down next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | −1.3% | +17.7% | −1.0% | down next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 94 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 54% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 51 of the 94 measured past cases of usage slumps of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 46% to 62% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 94.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 50% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 61% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 141 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every usage slump with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.