How often it went up124 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Usage slumps of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 124 of the 206 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 43 of those 124 closed higher — a base rate of 35%, with a 90% range of 28% to 42%, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.
- By day 30, 29 of the 119 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (24%).
- The typical day-30 move was −11.6%, the best +117.4% and the worst −95.5%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −10.4% vs BTC and beat it in 16.8% of 119 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 35% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 34% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 3 days ago · BLUE Bluefin next day −4.9% · 30 days lands
- 3 days ago · REZ Renzo next day +9.7% · 30 days lands
- 4 days ago · CETUS Cetus Protocol next day −2.6% · 30 days lands
- 4 days ago · SDL stake.link 30 days lands
- 5 days ago · RPL Rocket Pool next day −1.9% · 30 days lands
- 6 days ago · FWA Fake World Assets 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled usage slump can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Usage slumps of micro-cap tokens →
Every past case206 cases
Every past usage slump behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 206 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Bluefin (BLUE) | — | −4.9% | in 27 days | in 27 days | down next day | |
| Renzo (REZ) | — | +9.7% | in 27 days | in 27 days | up next day | |
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | — | −2.6% | in 26 days | in 26 days | down next day | |
| stake.link (SDL) | — | — | in 26 days | in 26 days | not measured yet | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | −1.9% | in 25 days | in 25 days | down next day | |
| Fake World Assets (FWA) | — | — | in 24 days | in 24 days | not measured yet | |
| Metadium (META) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Overtime (OVER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| stake.link (SDL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | +3.5% | −6.6% | −9.9% | up next day | |
| Minswap (MIN) | — | +8.7% | +7.0% | −0.2% | up next day | |
| Nest Protocol (NEST) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | — | −1.1% | +2.7% | −2.7% | down next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | −11.4% | −0.5% | −2.7% | down next day | |
| Mamo (MAMO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Limitless (LMTS) | — | −12.3% | −20.1% | −17.5% | down next day | |
| BENQI (QI) | — | −2.9% | −21.7% | −18.0% | down next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | −0.7% | +30.8% | +32.3% | sideways next day | |
| Renzo (REZ) | — | +5.6% | −23.7% | −21.7% | up next day | |
| BankrCoin (BNKR) | — | +8.3% | −21.5% | −21.8% | up next day | |
| SoSoValue (SOSO) | — | −20.0% | −9.9% | −10.2% | down next day | |
| KernelDAO (KERNEL) | — | +1.0% | −17.2% | −22.1% | up next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Limitless (LMTS) | — | +10.5% | +21.5% | +4.1% | up next day | |
| SaucerSwap (SAUCE) | — | −1.7% | +0.3% | −15.2% | down next day | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | −5.8% | −7.7% | −22.0% | down next day | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | — | −2.1% | −4.8% | −21.3% | down next day | |
| stake.link (SDL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Definitive (EDGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Power Protocol (POWER) | — | +4.8% | −95.5% | −93.3% | up next day | |
| ApeX Token (APEX) | — | +8.4% | −9.6% | −16.1% | up next day | |
| BankrCoin (BNKR) | — | +2.6% | −36.2% | −42.7% | up next day | |
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | — | +7.9% | +56.2% | +49.8% | up next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | −0.7% | +4.2% | −1.3% | sideways next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Minswap (MIN) | — | −3.4% | −2.7% | −8.2% | down next day | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | — | −7.2% | −25.5% | −29.3% | down next day | |
| Mamo (MAMO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | −8.2% | −1.4% | −5.6% | down next day | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | — | +0.8% | −5.6% | −10.1% | sideways next day | |
| Overtime (OVER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Frankencoin (ZCHF) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sport.Fun (FUN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | +28.5% | +14.0% | +10.4% | up next day | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | +0.4% | −0.6% | −4.1% | sideways next day | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | −7.0% | −8.2% | −14.1% | down next day | |
| NAVI Protocol (NAVX) | — | −3.0% | −2.5% | −8.3% | down next day | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | −6.5% | +2.7% | −3.2% | down next day | |
| Suilend (SEND) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Metadium (META) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BENQI (QI) | — | −4.5% | −11.6% | −11.4% | down next day | |
| Stader (SD) | — | −1.1% | −12.0% | −11.8% | down next day | |
| Ankr (ANKR) | — | −4.2% | −9.6% | −6.6% | down next day | |
| Renzo (REZ) | — | −5.2% | −10.9% | −2.8% | down next day | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | — | −11.9% | −39.0% | −16.7% | down next day | |
| Bluefin (BLUE) | — | −10.0% | −31.8% | −9.5% | down next day | |
| Usual (USUAL) | — | −0.3% | −45.9% | −18.3% | sideways next day | |
| mETH Protocol (COOK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | +22.7% | −11.1% | −1.0% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| ApeX Token (APEX) | — | +5.1% | −35.3% | −30.5% | up next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | 0.0% | +2.5% | +1.4% | sideways next day | |
| Orderly Network (ORDER) | — | −3.9% | −1.9% | −3.7% | down next day | |
| Metadium (META) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Power Protocol (POWER) | — | +8.3% | −32.8% | −31.2% | up next day | |
| Limitless (LMTS) | — | −2.4% | −27.9% | −26.3% | down next day | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | −5.0% | −5.6% | −3.4% | down next day | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sport.Fun (FUN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | — | −3.1% | −0.1% | +0.5% | down next day | |
| SynFutures (F) | — | −1.6% | −12.7% | −11.3% | down next day | |
| SaucerSwap (SAUCE) | — | −2.9% | −16.2% | −14.8% | down next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| NAVI Protocol (NAVX) | — | +6.0% | +3.6% | +6.6% | up next day | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | — | −15.4% | −0.8% | +1.7% | down next day | |
| Orderly Network (ORDER) | — | −10.6% | −18.3% | −15.7% | down next day | |
| Renzo (REZ) | — | −6.6% | −26.2% | −23.7% | down next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | −7.5% | −25.3% | −22.7% | down next day | |
| Suilend (SEND) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Usual (USUAL) | — | −3.5% | −11.0% | −7.3% | down next day | |
| Osmosis (OSMO) | — | −1.2% | −38.2% | −38.2% | down next day | |
| Overtime (OVER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Mamo (MAMO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Metaplex (MPLX) | — | −2.8% | −37.4% | −39.7% | down next day | |
| Streamflow (STREAM) | — | −4.1% | −14.9% | −9.7% | down next day | |
| BankrCoin (BNKR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | −1.2% | −14.3% | −2.8% | down next day | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | — | −6.7% | −21.3% | −9.8% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Reservoir (DAM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| StakeWise (SWISE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | — | +3.7% | −28.7% | −8.3% | up next day | |
| Osmosis (OSMO) | — | −5.8% | −27.7% | −11.9% | down next day | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | +2.1% | −23.0% | −9.8% | up next day | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | +3.7% | −49.6% | −36.3% | up next day | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Beefy (BIFI) | — | −0.2% | −3.4% | −14.3% | sideways next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Alchemix (ALCX) | — | −3.0% | −17.9% | −16.5% | down next day | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | +4.6% | −4.4% | −3.3% | up next day | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | −6.2% | +26.0% | +2.3% | down next day | |
| Lista DAO (LISTA) | — | −18.3% | −16.6% | −40.3% | down next day | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | — | +0.2% | +15.2% | −8.5% | sideways next day | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | −4.2% | +19.4% | −4.3% | down next day | |
| SynFutures (F) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Orderly Network (ORDER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | — | +6.3% | +62.7% | +55.3% | up next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | −2.9% | −16.6% | −24.0% | down next day | |
| SaucerSwap (SAUCE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Swell Network (SWELL) | — | +6.4% | −13.2% | −24.6% | up next day | |
| Ankr (ANKR) | — | +1.6% | +7.4% | +3.3% | up next day | |
| Bluefin (BLUE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | +4.6% | −29.0% | −30.2% | up next day | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | −0.3% | — | — | sideways next day | |
| SoSoValue (SOSO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ApeX Token (APEX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | — | −2.1% | −13.0% | −11.0% | down next day | |
| Renzo (REZ) | — | −2.2% | −34.7% | −36.8% | down next day | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | +1.2% | −14.1% | −16.2% | up next day | |
| Usual (USUAL) | — | −9.2% | −25.8% | −28.0% | down next day | |
| Definitive (EDGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stader (SD) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Renzo (REZ) | — | +18.8% | −3.2% | +0.3% | up next day | |
| Metaplex (MPLX) | — | +8.4% | −7.0% | −5.1% | up next day | |
| Origin Protocol (OGN) | — | −0.4% | −13.5% | −8.7% | sideways next day | |
| SaucerSwap (SAUCE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | — | +4.0% | −13.1% | −0.7% | up next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | −1.1% | −24.5% | −12.0% | down next day | |
| Avalon (AVL) | — | −5.1% | +21.3% | +33.4% | down next day | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | +2.5% | −25.6% | −10.4% | up next day | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | — | −3.1% | −9.0% | +4.9% | down next day | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Definitive (EDGE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Orderly Network (ORDER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | −0.9% | −24.6% | −12.3% | sideways next day | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | +4.5% | −30.7% | −14.0% | up next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | −5.9% | −28.7% | −28.2% | down next day | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | −7.4% | −47.8% | −47.3% | down next day | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | −13.7% | −46.8% | −46.4% | down next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | −6.6% | −30.9% | −43.8% | down next day | |
| Orderly Network (ORDER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | — | −7.9% | −31.0% | −37.3% | down next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Osmosis (OSMO) | — | −5.2% | −19.0% | −25.4% | down next day | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | +13.2% | −27.7% | −34.8% | up next day | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | — | −0.7% | −10.2% | −17.3% | sideways next day | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | −4.4% | +5.8% | −6.0% | down next day | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | −6.2% | +12.1% | +5.0% | down next day | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Orderly Network (ORDER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | +0.4% | +117.4% | +117.5% | sideways next day | |
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SynFutures (F) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Suilend (SEND) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | −2.2% | +1.2% | −10.4% | down next day | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | +1.1% | −7.9% | −10.2% | up next day | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | −4.0% | −5.0% | −19.3% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | −1.2% | +3.5% | −9.8% | down next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | −3.3% | +4.7% | −6.4% | down next day | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | −0.4% | +1.5% | −4.7% | sideways next day | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | +0.3% | +19.0% | +15.8% | sideways next day | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | — | +4.0% | +17.7% | −9.5% | up next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Balancer (BAL) | — | +2.8% | −2.4% | −10.7% | up next day | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | +1.8% | −1.3% | −4.8% | up next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | −3.0% | +4.7% | +3.8% | down next day | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | — | −11.0% | −27.7% | −20.1% | down next day | |
| Ankr (ANKR) | — | +1.2% | −23.1% | −11.6% | up next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | −0.9% | −24.1% | −33.8% | sideways next day | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | — | +2.9% | −15.7% | −31.6% | up next day | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Gains Network (GNS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | −11.8% | +6.9% | −10.8% | down next day | |
| Gains Network (GNS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Osmosis (OSMO) | — | −0.7% | −26.5% | −28.9% | sideways next day | |
| VVS Finance (VVS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | −1.4% | +19.9% | +12.7% | down next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BENQI (QI) | — | −16.9% | −13.6% | +13.6% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | −5.5% | −44.7% | −10.7% | down next day | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Osmosis (OSMO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | +6.2% | −12.0% | −1.3% | up next day | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tokenlon (LON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Liquity (LQTY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 124 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 35% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 43 of the 124 measured past cases of usage slumps of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 28, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 28% to 42% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 124.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 35% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 34% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 206 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every usage slump with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.