How often it went up11 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Governance votes of small-cap L1 and L2 tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 11 of the 11 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 7 of those 11 closed higher — a base rate of 64%, with a 90% range of 39% to 82%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- By day 30, 8 of the 10 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (80%).
- The typical day-30 move was +34.6%, the best +270.8% and the worst −22.7%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran +37.2% vs BTC and beat it in 70.0% of 10 comparable cases.
- No recent-cases check yet: it needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 11 as of Oct 25, 2026.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 3 days ago · STRK Starknet next day −13.7% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled governance vote can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Governance votes of small-cap L1 and L2 tokens →
Every past case11 cases
Every past governance vote behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 11 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Starknet (STRK) | — | −13.7% | in 27 days | in 27 days | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Starknet (STRK) | — | +2.5% | +2.9% | −6.7% | up next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Optimism (OP) | — | −2.2% | +120.3% | +86.1% | down next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +30.9% | +34.3% | +26.7% | up next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +5.8% | +34.9% | +47.6% | up next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | −1.5% | +24.7% | +16.8% | down next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +7.6% | −22.7% | −26.7% | up next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | −5.5% | −22.2% | −6.0% | down next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +10.1% | +270.8% | +255.3% | up next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +27.7% | +103.5% | +91.1% | up next day | |
| Optimism (OP) | — | +1.4% | +62.1% | +52.7% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 11 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 64% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 7 of the 11 measured past cases of governance votes of small-cap L1 and L2 tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 39% to 82% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 11.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- Nothing yet — the split needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 11.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 11 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every governance vote with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.