How often it went up73 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Governance votes of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 73 of the 90 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 36 of those 73 closed higher — a base rate of 49%, with a 90% range of 40% to 59%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- By day 30, 20 of the 73 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (27%).
- The typical day-30 move was −17.8%, the best +66.4% and the worst −61.5%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −13.1% vs BTC and beat it in 20.5% of 73 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 55% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 41% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled governance vote can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Governance votes of micro-cap tokens →
Every past case90 cases
Every past governance vote behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 90 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −4.3% | −17.4% | −15.2% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −6.9% | −16.8% | −21.3% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −16.8% | −24.3% | −14.2% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −5.8% | −24.3% | −12.2% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −2.0% | −32.0% | −29.7% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −6.5% | −21.2% | −20.8% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +7.6% | −14.3% | −12.4% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +0.4% | +30.2% | +6.5% | sideways next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −3.3% | +31.4% | +8.7% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −14.5% | +0.6% | −13.1% | down next day | |
| Metis Token (METIS) | — | +0.9% | −25.0% | −24.2% | sideways next day | |
| Metis Token (METIS) | — | +1.5% | −28.5% | −19.0% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −11.3% | −19.3% | −9.7% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −1.0% | −24.7% | −10.9% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +8.7% | −27.1% | −29.3% | up next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −5.2% | −30.4% | −41.1% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +13.9% | +2.6% | −1.0% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −2.6% | −3.7% | −1.6% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +6.1% | −6.5% | −4.7% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +4.3% | −3.3% | −6.7% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −0.5% | −7.9% | −11.3% | sideways next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +0.8% | +38.5% | +26.4% | sideways next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +2.1% | +45.2% | +30.5% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +1.6% | +5.1% | −4.1% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +6.9% | +36.9% | +7.4% | up next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| HOPR (HOPR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| CyberConnect (CYBER) | — | −41.4% | −56.1% | −62.6% | down next day | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −2.2% | −10.7% | +2.4% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −2.8% | +9.3% | −7.6% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −7.3% | −19.2% | −30.6% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −1.1% | −22.8% | −34.1% | down next day | |
| HOPR (HOPR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +2.3% | −30.4% | −23.8% | up next day | |
| HOPR (HOPR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +0.8% | −16.3% | −12.1% | sideways next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −2.2% | −21.1% | −16.9% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −15.8% | −16.2% | −36.2% | down next day | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| LFJ (JOE) | — | +2.9% | +66.4% | +23.6% | up next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Loopring (LRC) | — | −2.5% | −18.1% | −17.3% | down next day | |
| Hashflow (HFT) | — | −5.4% | −43.9% | −42.6% | down next day | |
| Hashflow (HFT) | — | −9.3% | −47.4% | −44.9% | down next day | |
| Hashflow (HFT) | — | +2.9% | −48.4% | −44.8% | up next day | |
| Hashflow (HFT) | — | +4.7% | −46.8% | −47.8% | up next day | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Hashflow (HFT) | — | +6.2% | −44.4% | −47.0% | up next day | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Hashflow (HFT) | — | +7.3% | −42.2% | −43.0% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +2.0% | −15.6% | −19.0% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −10.3% | −17.8% | −19.0% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −9.9% | −22.0% | −20.4% | down next day | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −6.4% | −19.7% | −1.6% | down next day | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Loopring (LRC) | — | +6.5% | −15.4% | −16.0% | up next day | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +1.4% | −23.5% | −13.1% | up next day | |
| Loopring (LRC) | — | +2.7% | −18.0% | −8.7% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −1.3% | −28.0% | −13.8% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +7.5% | −18.1% | −11.9% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −12.0% | −33.5% | −17.2% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +3.0% | +1.0% | +6.6% | up next day | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −1.0% | +40.9% | +21.1% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −11.7% | +26.4% | +11.6% | down next day | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +9.4% | +4.7% | −8.1% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +3.3% | −7.8% | +23.5% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +12.0% | +31.1% | +58.6% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −1.1% | +1.5% | +33.2% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +2.1% | −2.9% | +25.1% | up next day | |
| pSTAKE Finance (PSTAKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +4.9% | −56.7% | −35.1% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +10.4% | −61.5% | −34.9% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −6.9% | +11.0% | +4.1% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | +5.9% | +18.2% | −3.1% | up next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | −4.0% | −13.7% | −15.5% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | +2.5% | −18.2% | −11.3% | up next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | +2.9% | +7.2% | −8.6% | up next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | +8.4% | +1.1% | −0.3% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −5.7% | −20.3% | −23.0% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | −8.4% | −12.4% | −14.2% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | +0.5% | −19.0% | −17.8% | sideways next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −8.6% | −35.1% | −31.2% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −1.5% | −29.3% | −28.5% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 73 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 49% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 36 of the 73 measured past cases of governance votes of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 40% to 59% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 73.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 55% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 41% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 90 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every governance vote with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.