How often it went up52 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Governance votes of large-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 52 of the 52 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 26 of those 52 closed higher — a base rate of 50%, with a 90% range of 39% to 61%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- By day 30, 21 of the 52 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (40%).
- The typical day-30 move was −5.5%, the best +132.3% and the worst −44.2%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −8.8% vs BTC and beat it in 26.9% of 52 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 65% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 29% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled governance vote can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Governance votes of large-cap tokens →
Every past case52 cases
Every past governance vote behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 52 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −10.5% | −31.8% | −26.0% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −5.8% | −16.8% | +0.2% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −9.7% | −13.3% | −12.5% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +1.9% | +20.0% | +8.4% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −2.0% | +18.6% | +11.4% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −2.2% | +30.4% | +20.4% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −3.1% | +20.7% | +9.5% | down next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −9.1% | −14.6% | −20.9% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −2.7% | −10.4% | −19.9% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +5.0% | −7.3% | −16.2% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +1.6% | −1.1% | −5.7% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −11.3% | −25.1% | −22.2% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +3.1% | +13.6% | −23.0% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −9.0% | +0.1% | −0.0% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −5.3% | −2.5% | −1.4% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −1.9% | −18.0% | −10.6% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +2.0% | +41.6% | +42.4% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −1.7% | −35.7% | −23.9% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −1.5% | −44.2% | −31.4% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −2.4% | −20.3% | −25.4% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +12.8% | −17.1% | −23.6% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +0.6% | +132.3% | +74.2% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −4.0% | +3.9% | −12.8% | down next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +30.5% | +31.8% | +8.8% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +3.3% | +25.7% | +0.7% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +3.2% | +56.4% | +46.5% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −0.7% | +50.3% | +40.7% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +1.8% | +29.5% | −6.2% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −0.4% | +23.6% | −9.4% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −2.1% | +10.4% | +16.7% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +11.7% | +18.9% | +23.9% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −5.4% | −8.9% | −3.6% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +6.1% | −14.2% | −3.8% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +3.4% | −9.4% | −12.4% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +1.5% | −4.9% | −12.4% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −1.3% | −16.4% | −28.7% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −2.8% | −6.1% | −16.7% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +2.5% | −13.9% | −3.4% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +4.3% | +1.8% | −1.0% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +0.9% | +5.6% | −1.7% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +7.1% | +2.7% | −12.9% | up next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −6.1% | −30.3% | −13.5% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +6.2% | −22.9% | −15.1% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +4.9% | −29.7% | −10.8% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +0.4% | +2.0% | +11.0% | sideways next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −2.2% | −27.9% | −10.1% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +2.5% | −40.1% | −23.3% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +7.9% | −17.4% | −8.6% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −1.5% | −19.3% | −9.0% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +4.6% | 0.0% | −0.2% | up next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | −4.1% | −2.0% | −0.3% | down next day | |
| Uniswap (UNI) | — | +11.0% | −11.9% | −9.7% | up next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 52 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 50% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 26 of the 52 measured past cases of governance votes of large-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 39% to 61% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 52.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 65% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 29% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 52 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every governance vote with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.