How often it went up68 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Governance votes of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 68 of the 81 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 32 of those 68 closed higher — a base rate of 47%, with a 90% range of 37% to 57%, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- By day 30, 29 of the 67 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (43%).
- The typical day-30 move was −5.2%, the best +159.0% and the worst −43.7%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −11.9% vs BTC and beat it in 28.4% of 67 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 49% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 44% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running
- 9 days ago · GTC Gitcoin next day +18.5% · 7 days +40.7% · 30 days lands
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled governance vote can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Governance votes of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case81 cases
Every past governance vote behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 81 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +18.5% | in 21 days | in 21 days | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +2.6% | +159.0% | +151.1% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −7.3% | −6.5% | −15.0% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −11.3% | −29.6% | −10.6% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +13.7% | +6.9% | +8.7% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +1.8% | −30.5% | −15.7% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +3.2% | −33.5% | −26.3% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | 0.0% | +18.3% | +21.1% | sideways next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +5.5% | −20.7% | −3.7% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −1.8% | −24.2% | −14.8% | down next day | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | −5.5% | −43.7% | −47.0% | down next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +6.2% | −37.3% | −30.9% | up next day | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | −4.9% | +40.5% | +24.0% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −7.3% | +18.8% | −27.7% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −7.7% | −1.5% | −11.8% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −7.4% | −30.8% | −19.6% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −8.4% | −40.1% | −23.0% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +5.0% | −24.8% | −13.1% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −3.2% | −23.7% | −12.6% | down next day | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +3.9% | −22.5% | −15.5% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +0.2% | −22.3% | −13.1% | sideways next day | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +7.7% | −40.8% | −32.0% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +5.4% | −35.9% | −31.6% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −0.6% | −36.9% | −30.8% | sideways next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | −1.9% | −30.6% | −24.5% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −16.1% | −43.1% | −35.1% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −2.8% | −11.9% | −17.5% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +4.4% | +37.7% | −0.0% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −5.8% | +16.3% | −5.7% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −9.9% | +12.9% | −13.6% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +3.0% | +90.3% | +38.1% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −6.4% | +49.8% | +8.7% | down next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +5.9% | −16.3% | −14.7% | up next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | +4.5% | +15.1% | +16.6% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −3.2% | +8.5% | +8.6% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +5.0% | +3.5% | +3.0% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +2.2% | +29.7% | +12.8% | up next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | +0.0% | −4.1% | −18.5% | sideways next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −5.1% | −1.9% | −13.6% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +4.5% | +14.1% | −10.9% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +11.1% | +23.7% | −2.0% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −2.6% | +15.1% | +3.7% | down next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | +11.9% | +24.9% | +12.1% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +6.9% | +13.9% | −5.6% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −8.7% | −5.2% | −31.8% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −1.8% | −15.0% | −4.1% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −6.2% | −15.2% | −5.0% | down next day | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | −5.4% | −23.4% | −18.5% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −10.3% | +14.3% | +17.0% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −6.1% | −16.7% | −10.4% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +2.6% | −12.6% | −9.7% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −0.4% | −16.5% | −12.9% | sideways next day | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −0.4% | −26.4% | −17.4% | sideways next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +2.2% | −22.6% | −20.1% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −2.1% | −9.4% | −11.9% | down next day | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −23.1% | −32.0% | −33.6% | down next day | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +2.9% | +4.0% | −3.4% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −8.9% | +9.4% | −14.1% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −2.1% | −2.6% | −14.9% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −6.5% | +0.1% | −13.8% | down next day | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +18.2% | +0.7% | +19.8% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +5.3% | +5.8% | +19.9% | up next day | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| pSTAKE Finance (PSTAKE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | +20.2% | +2.0% | +17.6% | up next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | +4.6% | +3.4% | +19.6% | up next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | +1.7% | +34.9% | +34.7% | up next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | −6.9% | −12.0% | −10.3% | down next day | |
| Gitcoin (GTC) | — | +24.6% | +3.3% | +6.4% | up next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | −13.9% | −25.0% | −18.7% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 68 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 47% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 32 of the 68 measured past cases of governance votes of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 25, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 37% to 57% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 68.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 49% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 44% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 81 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every governance vote with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.