How often it went up16 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Unlocks of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories of 0.5-2% of supply with BTC below its 50-day average: 16 of the 16 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 5 of those 16 closed higher — a base rate of 31%, with a 90% range of 16% to 52%, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- By day 30, 9 of the 16 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (56%).
- The typical day-30 move was +0.7%, the best +17.2% and the worst −54.5%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −8.5% vs BTC and beat it in 31.2% of 16 comparable cases.
- No recent-cases check yet: it needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 16 as of Oct 4, 2026.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled unlock can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Unlocks of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories of 0.5-2% of supply →
Every past case16 cases
Every past unlock behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 16 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Aptos (APT) | 1.3% of circ. | −3.9% | +5.0% | −16.0% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | 1.7% of circ. | −2.1% | +3.2% | +2.6% | down next day | |
| Aptos (APT) | 1.4% of circ. | +1.2% | −7.5% | −8.4% | up next day | |
| Aptos (APT) | 1.5% of circ. | +0.4% | −11.5% | −11.7% | sideways next day | |
| Aptos (APT) | 1.5% of circ. | +6.8% | +1.2% | −8.7% | up next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 1.3% of circ. | +5.0% | +0.2% | +13.4% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 0.5% of circ. | −7.1% | +2.1% | +0.6% | down next day | |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | 1.8% of circ. | +4.2% | +17.2% | +6.9% | up next day | |
| Aptos (APT) | 1.6% of circ. | −7.4% | +16.1% | +10.4% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 0.5% of circ. | −3.4% | −21.6% | −17.9% | down next day | |
| Aptos (APT) | 1.6% of circ. | −1.8% | −45.8% | −34.2% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 0.5% of circ. | −7.0% | −42.1% | −22.6% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 0.5% of circ. | −3.7% | −13.6% | −19.1% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 0.5% of circ. | −1.5% | +4.8% | −3.3% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 0.8% of circ. | −8.1% | +9.0% | −4.7% | down next day | |
| Jupiter Exchange Token (JUP) | 0.8% of circ. | −22.9% | −54.5% | −42.0% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 16 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket, BTC regime and unlock size), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 31% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 5 of the 16 measured past cases of unlocks of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories of 0.5-2% of supply with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 16% to 52% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 16.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- Nothing yet — the split needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 16.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 16 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every unlock with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.