How often it went up10 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Unlocks of micro-cap tokens of 0.5-2% of supply: 10 of the 20 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 5 of those 10 closed higher — a base rate of 50%, with a 90% range of 27% to 73%, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- By day 30, 5 of the 9 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (56%).
- The typical day-30 move was +4.7%, the best +493.4% and the worst −50.5%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −1.9% vs BTC and beat it in 44.4% of 9 comparable cases.
- No recent-cases check yet: it needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 10 as of Oct 4, 2026.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD4 scheduled
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
4 scheduled unlocks meet every condition of this pattern. Each one is dated, and its move is measured from that day. A narrower pattern that also fits gives them their odds.
| Date | Token | Event | Size | When | Its odds come from |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limitless (LMTS) | LMTS unlock: 1.67M tokens (1.27% of circulating) | 1.3% | in 27 days | Unlocks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories of 0.5-2% of supply | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | VELVET unlock: 1.79M tokens (1.59% of circulating) | 1.6% | in 98 days | Unlocks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories of 0.5-2% of supply | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | VELVET unlock: 1.79M tokens (1.59% of circulating) | 1.6% | in 129 days | Unlocks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories of 0.5-2% of supply | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | VELVET unlock: 1.79M tokens (1.59% of circulating) | 1.6% | in 157 days | Unlocks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories of 0.5-2% of supply |
Every past case20 cases
Every past unlock behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 20 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Limitless (LMTS) | 1.3% of circ. | +5.2% | in 26 days | in 26 days | up next day | |
| Limitless (LMTS) | 1.3% of circ. | −9.1% | −50.5% | −58.2% | down next day | |
| River (RIVER) | 0.6% of circ. | +0.3% | +13.9% | +9.0% | sideways next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Domani Protocol (DEXTF) | 0.7% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Keeta (KTA) | 1.4% of circ. | −22.0% | −31.0% | −28.5% | down next day | |
| READY! (READY) | 1.7% of circ. | −0.6% | +456.4% | +451.6% | sideways next day | |
| READY! (READY) | 1.2% of circ. | −0.3% | +493.4% | +490.9% | sideways next day | |
| READY! (READY) | 1.7% of circ. | −19.5% | +4.7% | +11.2% | down next day | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | 1.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| READY! (READY) | 1.0% of circ. | +26.5% | −12.1% | −19.3% | up next day | |
| READY! (READY) | 0.9% of circ. | +6.8% | +6.2% | −1.9% | up next day | |
| Keeta (KTA) | 0.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| READY! (READY) | 1.7% of circ. | +19.5% | −44.3% | −45.3% | up next day | |
| READY! (READY) | 1.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| READY! (READY) | 0.7% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| READY! (READY) | 1.7% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| READY! (READY) | 1.7% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| READY! (READY) | 1.8% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| READY! (READY) | 0.6% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| READY! (READY) | 1.7% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 10 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and unlock size), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 50% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 5 of the 10 measured past cases of unlocks of micro-cap tokens of 0.5-2% of supply closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 27% to 73% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 10.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- Nothing yet — the split needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 10.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 20 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every unlock with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.