How often it went up42 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
TVL surges of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 42 of the 105 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 15 of those 42 closed higher — a base rate of 36%, with a 90% range of 25% to 48%, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.
- By day 30, 14 of the 42 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (33%).
- The typical day-30 move was −14.9%, the best +58.9% and the worst −67.8%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −10.6% vs BTC and beat it in 33.3% of 42 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 32% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 41% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled TVL surge can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: TVL surges of small-cap tokens →
Every past case105 cases
Every past TVL surge behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 105 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| SUN (SUN) | 0.6% of circ. | +0.8% | +7.4% | +6.5% | sideways next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | 2.0% of circ. | −6.5% | +21.9% | +42.7% | down next day | |
| EOS (EOS) | 0.6% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Immutable X (IMX) | 0.8% of circ. | −5.3% | −13.6% | −14.7% | down next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | 0.6% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Bitkub Coin (KUB) | 0.7% of circ. | +0.8% | +9.0% | −0.5% | sideways next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | 0.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Axelar (AXL) | 0.2% of circ. | +4.4% | −35.6% | −28.3% | up next day | |
| SUN (SUN) | 0.2% of circ. | +0.2% | −8.6% | +0.8% | sideways next day | |
| Bedrock DAO (BR) | 0.4% of circ. | −2.1% | −25.7% | −8.6% | down next day | |
| Falcon Finance (FF) | 0.4% of circ. | −11.7% | −10.4% | +5.9% | down next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | 0.8% of circ. | −26.2% | −67.8% | −54.4% | down next day | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | 1.1% of circ. | −2.5% | −26.2% | −30.2% | down next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | 1.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | 0.3% of circ. | +41.1% | +51.5% | +46.3% | up next day | |
| edgeX (EDGE) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Optimism (OP) | 0.2% of circ. | +3.4% | −34.9% | −36.0% | up next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | 0.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Axelar (AXL) | 3.5% of circ. | +2.3% | +5.4% | −10.7% | up next day | |
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | 0.2% of circ. | −5.9% | +9.4% | +0.5% | down next day | |
| MX Token (MX) | 1.9% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| EOS (EOS) | 0.2% of circ. | −5.5% | +9.6% | +11.6% | down next day | |
| Immutable X (IMX) | 2.3% of circ. | 0.0% | −29.2% | −28.4% | sideways next day | |
| Bybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | 1.0% of circ. | −8.4% | −21.8% | −10.6% | down next day | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Bybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Wormhole (W) | 0.3% of circ. | −7.4% | +48.1% | +36.3% | down next day | |
| Threshold Network (T) | 0.2% of circ. | +1.4% | +24.5% | +13.8% | up next day | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | 1.4% of circ. | −14.3% | −19.6% | −18.6% | down next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | 0.3% of circ. | −5.2% | −13.2% | −23.8% | down next day | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | 0.2% of circ. | −4.0% | −9.2% | −20.8% | down next day | |
| Merlin Chain (MERL) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | 48.9% of circ. | −1.6% | −2.3% | −12.7% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | 0.4% of circ. | +2.7% | +12.6% | +3.7% | up next day | |
| DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) | 1.1% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | 2.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | 0.4% of circ. | +3.2% | −16.2% | −4.9% | up next day | |
| Axelar (AXL) | 0.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PulseX (PLSX) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Derive (DRV) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Threshold Network (T) | 0.4% of circ. | −3.6% | −34.3% | −30.5% | down next day | |
| Onyxcoin (XCN) | 0.7% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 0.6% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Blur (BLUR) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Venus (XVS) | 0.3% of circ. | 0.0% | −5.5% | −6.9% | sideways next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | 1.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 0.6% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 0.8% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | 0.3% of circ. | −0.9% | −28.0% | −17.3% | sideways next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 1.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | 0.3% of circ. | −9.1% | +0.6% | −12.0% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Wormhole (W) | 0.8% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 0.8% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 0.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 1.9% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Wormhole (W) | 0.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Collector Crypt (CARDS) | 0.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 0.8% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Wormhole (W) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 0.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | 0.7% of circ. | +2.4% | −19.6% | −0.4% | up next day | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | 0.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 1INCH (1INCH) | 0.7% of circ. | +5.2% | +58.9% | +11.6% | up next day | |
| GMX (GMX) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Orca (ORCA) | 0.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Wormhole (W) | 0.9% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Collector Crypt (CARDS) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Meteora (MET) | 0.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Collector Crypt (CARDS) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | 1.0% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | 0.3% of circ. | +7.9% | +25.9% | +10.0% | up next day | |
| Collector Crypt (CARDS) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | 0.3% of circ. | +5.3% | −44.8% | −23.4% | up next day | |
| Amp (AMP) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | 0.3% of circ. | −6.9% | −51.6% | −43.9% | down next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | 0.3% of circ. | −4.7% | −43.2% | −35.5% | down next day | |
| Numeraire (NMR) | 0.2% of circ. | −23.8% | −49.0% | −31.3% | down next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | 0.2% of circ. | +24.8% | −37.5% | −26.8% | up next day | |
| Amp (AMP) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Numeraire (NMR) | 0.4% of circ. | −18.7% | −49.7% | −32.3% | down next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | 1.1% of circ. | −2.0% | −42.2% | −4.0% | down next day | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | 0.7% of circ. | −3.8% | −26.8% | +8.3% | down next day | |
| Amp (AMP) | 0.3% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| yearn.finance (YFI) | 0.3% of circ. | −10.9% | −52.6% | −69.7% | down next day | |
| SUN (SUN) | 2.7% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | 0.2% of circ. | −1.2% | +47.1% | +22.5% | down next day | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2019 | ||||||
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | 0.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 42 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answered from this count
- What does the 36% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 15 of the 42 measured past cases of tVL surges of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 25% to 48% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 42.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 32% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 41% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 105 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every TVL surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.