PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
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Pattern · TVL surges · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-22

TVL surges of small-cap tokens: all 114 measured cases

TVL surge size · smallheld up on recent cases 276 cases on record last 5 cases: 2 up

Explained and tested in our research: What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a TVL surge?

higher the next day

41%

47 of 114 past cases

41% of past cases were higher (90% range 34-49%)

90% range 34%–49%

higher after 30 days

41%

44 of 107 cases measured after 30 days

41% of past cases were higher (90% range 34-49%)

90% range 34%–49% · typical move −8.6%

typical next day
−1.9%
typical after 30 days
−8.6%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
−8.6%
best after 30 days
+553.5%
worst after 30 days
−67.8%
30 days: up · sideways · down
40 · 10 · 57

recent-cases check · held up: 40% → 43% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

TVL JUMPall TVL surges against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
−4−9…+1
7 days
−4−10…+1
30 days
−7−12…−1

After TVL surges, the price was higher 30 days later in 36% of 363 cases on 307 separate days, against 43% of the same coins' ordinary days: −7 points (95% range −12 to −1; older half −9, newer half −5). Coin by coin, it is a likely driver on 2 coins.

Every past TVL surge, 30 days on 107 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 31 rose · ▼ 51 fell · ◆ 25 sideways (±12% over 30 days)

Each line is one past TVL surge: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · 80 of the 107 cases measured that far, evenly through their dates · past cases, not a projection

TVL surges of small-cap tokens: 114 of the 276 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 47 of those 114 closed higher — a base rate of 41%, with a 90% range of 34% to 49%, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up114 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

TVL surges of small-cap tokens: 114 of the 276 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 47 of those 114 closed higher — a base rate of 41%, with a 90% range of 34% to 49%, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.

  • By day 30, 44 of the 107 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (41%).
  • The typical day-30 move was −8.6%, the best +553.5% and the worst −67.8%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −8.6% vs BTC and beat it in 36.4% of 107 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 40% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 43% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running

  • 5 days ago · DRV Derive next day −1.8% · 30 days lands
  • 8 days ago · RSR Reserve Rights next day −5.7% · 7 days −8.3% · 30 days lands
  • 18 days ago · ZRO LayerZero next day +8.8% · 7 days +6.1% · 30 days lands
  • 19 days ago · CHIP USD.AI next day +10.6% · 7 days +53.7% · 30 days lands

NO DATA YET No scheduled TVL surge meets every condition of this pattern as of Oct 22, 2026.

Every past case276 cases

Every past TVL surge behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 276 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

276 past cases of tvl surges of small-cap tokens, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2026
Derive (DRV) 0.3% of circ. −1.8% in 25 days in 25 days down next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) 0.3% of circ. −5.7% in 22 days in 22 days down next day
LayerZero (ZRO) 0.5% of circ. +8.8% in 12 days in 12 days up next day
USD.AI (CHIP) 0.4% of circ. +10.6% in 11 days in 11 days up next day
Starknet (STRK) 0.3% of circ. −2.1% +28.0% +25.8% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Stargate Finance (STG) 0.3% of circ. −1.9% — — down next day
SUN (SUN) 0.8% of circ. +2.2% +6.0% −3.6% up next day
USD.AI (CHIP) 0.3% of circ. −8.0% +5.2% −2.1% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bedrock DAO (BR) 0.2% of circ. +21.5% +249.1% +230.7% up next day
edgeX (EDGE) 0.2% of circ. +1.5% +117.5% +96.4% up next day
Blur (BLUR) 0.3% of circ. −3.4% +10.2% −11.6% down next day
SUN (SUN) 0.6% of circ. +0.8% +7.4% +6.5% sideways next day
Meteora (MET) 2.0% of circ. −6.5% +21.9% +42.7% down next day
Fluid (FLUID) 0.3% of circ. −5.7% −43.7% −28.4% down next day
Wormhole (W) 0.3% of circ. −4.7% −22.8% −6.8% down next day
Helius Staked SOL (HSOL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.2% of circ. +2.8% −43.9% −25.5% up next day
RE (RE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
EOS (EOS) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
RE (RE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Immutable X (IMX) 0.8% of circ. −5.3% −13.6% −14.7% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
PulseX (PLSX) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Threshold Network (T) 0.2% of circ. +2.5% −13.6% −0.3% up next day
2025
Bitkub Coin (KUB) 0.7% of circ. +0.8% +9.0% −0.5% sideways next day
PulseX (PLSX) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
USD.AI (CHIP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Axelar (AXL) 0.2% of circ. +4.4% −35.6% −28.3% up next day
SUN (SUN) 0.2% of circ. +0.2% −8.6% +0.8% sideways next day
Bedrock DAO (BR) 0.4% of circ. −2.1% −25.7% −8.6% down next day
Falcon Finance (FF) 0.4% of circ. −11.7% −10.4% +5.9% down next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.8% of circ. −26.2% −67.8% −54.4% down next day
Cap (CAP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Stargate Finance (STG) 1.1% of circ. −2.5% −26.2% −30.2% down next day
USD.AI (CHIP) 1.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.3% of circ. +41.1% +51.5% +46.3% up next day
edgeX (EDGE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
MX Token (MX) 0.3% of circ. +3.6% −8.6% −5.7% up next day
Optimism (OP) 0.2% of circ. +3.4% −34.9% −36.0% up next day
USD.AI (CHIP) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
USD.AI (CHIP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
MX Token (MX) 1.7% of circ. +0.1% +17.8% +20.8% sideways next day
Bonk (BONK) 0.7% of circ. −10.6% −35.6% −33.1% down next day
Stargate Finance (STG) 0.2% of circ. +3.7% +14.4% +13.4% up next day
edgeX (EDGE) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
USD.AI (CHIP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
PulseX (PLSX) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Threshold Network (T) 0.5% of circ. −6.8% +12.6% +4.6% down next day
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 0.7% of circ. −1.9% −28.7% −27.2% down next day
Immutable X (IMX) 0.3% of circ. −0.5% −33.5% −31.9% sideways next day
EOS (EOS) 0.5% of circ. −4.1% — — down next day
PulseX (PLSX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lido DAO (LDO) 0.2% of circ. +6.5% −14.7% −21.8% up next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 0.2% of circ. +12.5% +27.0% +19.9% up next day
Blur (BLUR) 0.2% of circ. +1.3% −23.8% −30.9% up next day
EOS (EOS) 0.3% of circ. −3.7% — — down next day
Pendle (PENDLE) 0.5% of circ. −5.2% +17.3% +7.8% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Axelar (AXL) 3.5% of circ. +2.3% +5.4% −10.7% up next day
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
yearn.finance (YFI) 0.2% of circ. −5.9% +9.4% +0.5% down next day
MX Token (MX) 1.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
EOS (EOS) 0.2% of circ. −5.5% +9.6% +11.6% down next day
Immutable X (IMX) 2.3% of circ. 0.0% −29.2% −28.4% sideways next day
Bybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Stargate Finance (STG) 1.0% of circ. −8.4% −21.8% −10.6% down next day
Meteora (MET) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
EOS (EOS) 0.2% of circ. −11.0% −33.6% −25.1% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2024
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.5% of circ. −19.9% −25.8% −23.8% down next day
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SUN (SUN) 0.6% of circ. −2.8% −17.2% −16.8% down next day
Derive (DRV) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Amp (AMP) 0.2% of circ. −6.6% −3.6% −1.6% down next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 6.0% of circ. +6.1% +6.1% +5.0% up next day
PulseX (PLSX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
o1.exchange (O) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bedrock DAO (BR) 1.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) 1.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bybit Staked SOL (BBSOL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.3% of circ. −7.4% +48.1% +36.3% down next day
Threshold Network (T) 0.2% of circ. +1.4% +24.5% +13.8% up next day
Floki Inu (FLOKI) 0.5% of circ. −2.3% −8.5% −6.9% down next day
Wormhole (W) 0.3% of circ. −2.0% −18.2% −10.7% down next day
Axelar (AXL) 1.0% of circ. +7.1% −23.3% −12.5% up next day
Stargate Finance (STG) 1.4% of circ. −14.3% −19.6% −18.6% down next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.3% of circ. −5.2% −13.2% −23.8% down next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) 0.2% of circ. −4.0% −9.2% −20.8% down next day
Derive (DRV) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Fluid (FLUID) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Amp (AMP) 0.6% of circ. −0.8% −29.8% −21.5% sideways next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Derive (DRV) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Merlin Chain (MERL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 48.9% of circ. −1.6% −2.3% −12.7% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Convex Finance (CVX) 0.4% of circ. +2.7% +12.6% +3.7% up next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) 0.3% of circ. +3.7% −27.3% −32.0% up next day
Floki Inu (FLOKI) 0.3% of circ. +6.7% −20.3% −19.5% up next day
Orca (ORCA) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Amp (AMP) 0.3% of circ. −6.1% −41.2% −35.1% down next day
Kamino (KMNO) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Fluid (FLUID) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Starknet (STRK) 0.2% of circ. −10.0% −24.2% −28.5% down next day
o1.exchange (O) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Threshold Network (T) 0.3% of circ. +1.4% +52.4% +29.9% up next day
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 1.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Starknet (STRK) 6.7% of circ. +1.8% +9.4% −14.0% up next day
Meteora (MET) 1.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Optimism (OP) 0.3% of circ. −4.7% −7.0% −33.0% down next day
Merlin Chain (MERL) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bedrock DAO (BR) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 1.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
PulseX (PLSX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Kamino (KMNO) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2023
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 1.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
MegaUSD (USDM) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
o1.exchange (O) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Orca (ORCA) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Kamino (KMNO) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Optimism (OP) 0.5% of circ. −5.9% +46.0% +44.5% down next day
Amp (AMP) 0.3% of circ. −7.2% −0.4% −1.9% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Amp (AMP) 0.3% of circ. +16.6% +66.5% +52.1% up next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) 0.6% of circ. −6.6% +13.7% +2.0% down next day
Jito (JTO) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SwissBorg (BORG) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bedrock DAO (BR) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Jito (JTO) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Threshold Network (T) 0.8% of circ. +2.0% +25.1% −0.4% up next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 2.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Convex Finance (CVX) 0.4% of circ. +3.2% −16.2% −4.9% up next day
Jito (JTO) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 3.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Axelar (AXL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Axelar (AXL) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
PulseX (PLSX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Derive (DRV) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Threshold Network (T) 0.4% of circ. −3.6% −34.3% −30.5% down next day
Convex Finance (CVX) 0.2% of circ. +0.7% −18.4% −12.4% sideways next day
Onyxcoin (XCN) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.4% of circ. −15.7% −16.3% −42.3% down next day
Onyxcoin (XCN) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Blur (BLUR) 1.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Pulsechain (PLS) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Derive (DRV) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Amp (AMP) 0.3% of circ. −6.7% −2.4% −18.7% down next day
2022
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Blur (BLUR) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Venus (XVS) 0.3% of circ. 0.0% −5.5% −6.9% sideways next day
Meteora (MET) 1.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Stargate Finance (STG) 0.3% of circ. −0.9% −28.0% −17.3% sideways next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Derive (DRV) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 0.2% of circ. +0.8% −20.8% −11.8% sideways next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 1.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.3% of circ. −9.1% +0.6% −12.0% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Stargate Finance (STG) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 1.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lido DAO (LDO) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Collector Crypt (CARDS) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2021
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Reserve Rights (RSR) 0.7% of circ. +2.4% −19.6% −0.4% up next day
Pendle (PENDLE) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 0.3% of circ. −3.1% −44.8% −25.2% down next day
Amp (AMP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Collector Crypt (CARDS) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
GMX (GMX) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
GMX (GMX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
1INCH (1INCH) 0.2% of circ. +6.3% +43.7% +13.2% up next day
1INCH (1INCH) 0.7% of circ. +5.2% +58.9% +11.6% up next day
GMX (GMX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Orca (ORCA) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Collector Crypt (CARDS) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 1.0% of circ. −6.0% −20.8% −51.9% down next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.3% of circ. −14.9% −34.9% −61.4% down next day
GMX (GMX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Numeraire (NMR) 0.3% of circ. −8.7% −4.1% −28.1% down next day
Pendle (PENDLE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Orca (ORCA) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Orca (ORCA) 1.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Collector Crypt (CARDS) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DYDX Chain (DYDX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SUN (SUN) 0.7% of circ. +6.3% +38.2% +13.9% up next day
Amp (AMP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Collector Crypt (CARDS) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 1.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 0.3% of circ. +7.9% +25.9% +10.0% up next day
Collector Crypt (CARDS) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 0.3% of circ. +5.3% −44.8% −23.4% up next day
Amp (AMP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DYDX Chain (DYDX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 0.3% of circ. −6.9% −51.6% −43.9% down next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.3% of circ. −4.7% −43.2% −35.5% down next day
Numeraire (NMR) 0.2% of circ. −23.8% −49.0% −31.3% down next day
Lido DAO (LDO) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 0.2% of circ. +24.8% −37.5% −26.8% up next day
Amp (AMP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Convex Finance (CVX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Numeraire (NMR) 0.4% of circ. −18.7% −49.7% −32.3% down next day
THORChain (RUNE) 1.1% of circ. −2.0% −42.2% −4.0% down next day
THORChain (RUNE) 0.7% of circ. −3.8% −26.8% +8.3% down next day
Amp (AMP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Amp (AMP) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SUN (SUN) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
1INCH (1INCH) 0.7% of circ. +2.8% +15.8% +18.4% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Venus (XVS) 0.2% of circ. −18.8% +9.1% +5.3% down next day
Amp (AMP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SUN (SUN) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Venus (XVS) 0.2% of circ. −9.5% −55.0% −51.7% down next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.2% of circ. +8.2% −18.4% −54.9% up next day
Amp (AMP) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Venus (XVS) 0.3% of circ. +62.7% +80.2% +36.3% up next day
Amp (AMP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lido DAO (LDO) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.3% of circ. −6.5% +90.7% +77.9% down next day
Venus (XVS) 0.2% of circ. +7.6% +351.7% +336.3% up next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2020
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.2% of circ. +3.2% +105.3% +67.2% up next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.3% of circ. +24.7% +47.1% +24.1% up next day
yearn.finance (YFI) 0.3% of circ. −10.9% −52.6% −69.7% down next day
SUN (SUN) 2.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SUN (SUN) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
yearn.finance (YFI) 1.8% of circ. +64.4% +553.5% +562.5% up next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.2% of circ. −9.9% −34.5% −25.5% down next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.2% of circ. −1.0% +3.1% +16.5% sideways next day
Compound (COMP) 0.2% of circ. −1.9% +26.3% +23.6% down next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.2% of circ. −1.2% +47.1% +22.5% down next day
Compound (COMP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2019
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 114 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answered from this count

What does the 41% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 47 of the 114 measured past cases of tVL surges of small-cap tokens closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 34% to 49% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 114.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 40% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 43% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 276 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every TVL surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.