PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
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Pattern · TVL surges · counted from past cases, updated 2026-10-22

TVL surges of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: all 72 measured cases

TVL surge size · smallbtc trend · upheld up on recent cases 171 cases on record last 5 cases: 2 up

Explained and tested in our research: What happens to a coin in the 30 days after a TVL surge?

higher the next day

44%

32 of 72 past cases

44% of past cases were higher (90% range 35-54%)

90% range 35%–54%

higher after 30 days

46%

30 of 65 cases measured after 30 days

46% of past cases were higher (90% range 36-56%)

90% range 36%–56% · typical move −3.6%

typical next day
−1.9%
typical after 30 days
−3.6%
typical vs BTC, 30 days
−6.8%
best after 30 days
+553.5%
worst after 30 days
−55.0%
30 days: up · sideways · down
28 · 6 · 31

recent-cases check · held up: 44% → 45% (older 60% → newer 40% of cases)

TVL JUMPall TVL surges against the same coins' ordinary days, not only this pattern'sthe atlas →

1 day
−4−9…+1
7 days
−4−10…+1
30 days
−7−12…−1

After TVL surges, the price was higher 30 days later in 36% of 363 cases on 307 separate days, against 43% of the same coins' ordinary days: −7 points (95% range −12 to −1; older half −9, newer half −5). Coin by coin, it is a likely driver on 2 coins.

Every past TVL surge, 30 days on 65 cases measured that far · hover a line for its token and date

7 days 30 days 90 days same cases, measured at each point

▲ 23 rose · ▼ 28 fell · ◆ 14 sideways (±12% over 30 days)

Each line is one past TVL surge: its token's real daily closes from the close before the event to 30 days after it, ending on the move the case list below prints · all 65 cases measured that far · past cases, not a projection

TVL surges of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 72 of the 171 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 32 of those 72 closed higher — a base rate of 44%, with a 90% range of 35% to 54%, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. Every figure above is a share of dated past cases · past patterns can stop working

The detailsevery past case behind these odds, with dates and links

How often it went up72 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of · counted from every past case of this pattern

TVL surges of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average: 72 of the 171 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 32 of those 72 closed higher — a base rate of 44%, with a 90% range of 35% to 54%, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.

  • By day 30, 30 of the 65 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (46%).
  • The typical day-30 move was −3.6%, the best +553.5% and the worst −55.0%.
  • Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −6.8% vs BTC and beat it in 38.5% of 65 comparable cases.
  • Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 44% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 45% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched

Coming upON RECORD

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of · upcoming events

In play · cases of the last 30 days whose 30-day move is still running

  • 5 days ago · DRV Derive next day −1.8% · 30 days lands
  • 8 days ago · RSR Reserve Rights next day −5.7% · 7 days −8.3% · 30 days lands
  • 18 days ago · ZRO LayerZero next day +8.8% · 7 days +6.1% · 30 days lands
  • 19 days ago · CHIP USD.AI next day +10.6% · 7 days +53.7% · 30 days lands

NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled TVL surge can be matched to this pattern before it happens.

Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: TVL surges of small-cap tokens →

Every past case171 cases

Every past TVL surge behind these odds

as of · events and their measured price moves

All 171 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

171 past cases of tvl surges of small-cap tokens with btc above its 50-day average, newest first; returns from the close before the event, in UTC
DateTokenVenue / sizeNext day30 daysvs BTCResult
2026
Derive (DRV) 0.3% of circ. −1.8% in 25 days in 25 days down next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) 0.3% of circ. −5.7% in 22 days in 22 days down next day
LayerZero (ZRO) 0.5% of circ. +8.8% in 12 days in 12 days up next day
USD.AI (CHIP) 0.4% of circ. +10.6% in 11 days in 11 days up next day
Starknet (STRK) 0.3% of circ. −2.1% +28.0% +25.8% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Stargate Finance (STG) 0.3% of circ. −1.9% — — down next day
SUN (SUN) 0.8% of circ. +2.2% +6.0% −3.6% up next day
USD.AI (CHIP) 0.3% of circ. −8.0% +5.2% −2.1% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bedrock DAO (BR) 0.2% of circ. +21.5% +249.1% +230.7% up next day
edgeX (EDGE) 0.2% of circ. +1.5% +117.5% +96.4% up next day
Blur (BLUR) 0.3% of circ. −3.4% +10.2% −11.6% down next day
Fluid (FLUID) 0.3% of circ. −5.7% −43.7% −28.4% down next day
Wormhole (W) 0.3% of circ. −4.7% −22.8% −6.8% down next day
Helius Staked SOL (HSOL) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.2% of circ. +2.8% −43.9% −25.5% up next day
RE (RE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
RE (RE) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
PulseX (PLSX) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Threshold Network (T) 0.2% of circ. +2.5% −13.6% −0.3% up next day
2025
Cap (CAP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
MX Token (MX) 0.3% of circ. +3.6% −8.6% −5.7% up next day
MX Token (MX) 1.7% of circ. +0.1% +17.8% +20.8% sideways next day
Bonk (BONK) 0.7% of circ. −10.6% −35.6% −33.1% down next day
Stargate Finance (STG) 0.2% of circ. +3.7% +14.4% +13.4% up next day
edgeX (EDGE) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
USD.AI (CHIP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
PulseX (PLSX) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Threshold Network (T) 0.5% of circ. −6.8% +12.6% +4.6% down next day
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 0.7% of circ. −1.9% −28.7% −27.2% down next day
Immutable X (IMX) 0.3% of circ. −0.5% −33.5% −31.9% sideways next day
EOS (EOS) 0.5% of circ. −4.1% — — down next day
PulseX (PLSX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lido DAO (LDO) 0.2% of circ. +6.5% −14.7% −21.8% up next day
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 0.2% of circ. +12.5% +27.0% +19.9% up next day
Blur (BLUR) 0.2% of circ. +1.3% −23.8% −30.9% up next day
EOS (EOS) 0.3% of circ. −3.7% — — down next day
Pendle (PENDLE) 0.5% of circ. −5.2% +17.3% +7.8% down next day
PulseX (PLSX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
EOS (EOS) 0.2% of circ. −11.0% −33.6% −25.1% down next day
2024
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.5% of circ. −19.9% −25.8% −23.8% down next day
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SUN (SUN) 0.6% of circ. −2.8% −17.2% −16.8% down next day
Derive (DRV) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Amp (AMP) 0.2% of circ. −6.6% −3.6% −1.6% down next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 6.0% of circ. +6.1% +6.1% +5.0% up next day
PulseX (PLSX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
o1.exchange (O) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bedrock DAO (BR) 1.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) 1.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Floki Inu (FLOKI) 0.5% of circ. −2.3% −8.5% −6.9% down next day
Wormhole (W) 0.3% of circ. −2.0% −18.2% −10.7% down next day
Axelar (AXL) 1.0% of circ. +7.1% −23.3% −12.5% up next day
Derive (DRV) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Fluid (FLUID) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Amp (AMP) 0.6% of circ. −0.8% −29.8% −21.5% sideways next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Derive (DRV) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DYDX Chain (DYDX) 0.3% of circ. +3.7% −27.3% −32.0% up next day
Floki Inu (FLOKI) 0.3% of circ. +6.7% −20.3% −19.5% up next day
Orca (ORCA) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Amp (AMP) 0.3% of circ. −6.1% −41.2% −35.1% down next day
Kamino (KMNO) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Fluid (FLUID) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Starknet (STRK) 0.2% of circ. −10.0% −24.2% −28.5% down next day
o1.exchange (O) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Threshold Network (T) 0.3% of circ. +1.4% +52.4% +29.9% up next day
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 1.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Starknet (STRK) 6.7% of circ. +1.8% +9.4% −14.0% up next day
Meteora (MET) 1.8% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Optimism (OP) 0.3% of circ. −4.7% −7.0% −33.0% down next day
Merlin Chain (MERL) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bedrock DAO (BR) 2.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
PulseX (PLSX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Kamino (KMNO) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2023
DeepBook Protocol (DEEP) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 1.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
MegaUSD (USDM) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
o1.exchange (O) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Orca (ORCA) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Kamino (KMNO) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Optimism (OP) 0.5% of circ. −5.9% +46.0% +44.5% down next day
Amp (AMP) 0.3% of circ. −7.2% −0.4% −1.9% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Amp (AMP) 0.3% of circ. +16.6% +66.5% +52.1% up next day
Reserve Rights (RSR) 0.6% of circ. −6.6% +13.7% +2.0% down next day
Jito (JTO) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SwissBorg (BORG) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Bedrock DAO (BR) 0.5% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Jito (JTO) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Threshold Network (T) 0.8% of circ. +2.0% +25.1% −0.4% up next day
Jito (JTO) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) 3.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Axelar (AXL) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Convex Finance (CVX) 0.2% of circ. +0.7% −18.4% −12.4% sideways next day
Onyxcoin (XCN) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.4% of circ. −15.7% −16.3% −42.3% down next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Blur (BLUR) 1.1% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Pulsechain (PLS) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Derive (DRV) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Amp (AMP) 0.3% of circ. −6.7% −2.4% −18.7% down next day
2022
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.9% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Meteora (MET) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Derive (DRV) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 0.2% of circ. +0.8% −20.8% −11.8% sideways next day
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Stargate Finance (STG) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lido DAO (LDO) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2021
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
THORChain (RUNE) 0.3% of circ. −3.1% −44.8% −25.2% down next day
Amp (AMP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Collector Crypt (CARDS) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
GMX (GMX) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Wormhole (W) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
GMX (GMX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
1INCH (1INCH) 0.2% of circ. +6.3% +43.7% +13.2% up next day
THORChain (RUNE) 1.0% of circ. −6.0% −20.8% −51.9% down next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.3% of circ. −14.9% −34.9% −61.4% down next day
GMX (GMX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Numeraire (NMR) 0.3% of circ. −8.7% −4.1% −28.1% down next day
Pendle (PENDLE) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Orca (ORCA) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Syrup Token (SYRUP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Orca (ORCA) 1.0% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Collector Crypt (CARDS) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
DYDX Chain (DYDX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SUN (SUN) 0.7% of circ. +6.3% +38.2% +13.9% up next day
Amp (AMP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Amp (AMP) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SUN (SUN) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
1INCH (1INCH) 0.7% of circ. +2.8% +15.8% +18.4% up next day
Lido DAO (LDO) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Venus (XVS) 0.2% of circ. −18.8% +9.1% +5.3% down next day
Amp (AMP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
SUN (SUN) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Venus (XVS) 0.2% of circ. −9.5% −55.0% −51.7% down next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.2% of circ. +8.2% −18.4% −54.9% up next day
Amp (AMP) 0.4% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Venus (XVS) 0.3% of circ. +62.7% +80.2% +36.3% up next day
Amp (AMP) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Lido DAO (LDO) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.3% of circ. −6.5% +90.7% +77.9% down next day
Venus (XVS) 0.2% of circ. +7.6% +351.7% +336.3% up next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Legacy Frax Dollar (FRAX) 0.7% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2020
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.2% of circ. +3.2% +105.3% +67.2% up next day
DYDX Chain (DYDX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.3% of circ. +24.7% +47.1% +24.1% up next day
SUN (SUN) 0.6% of circ. — — — not measured yet
yearn.finance (YFI) 1.8% of circ. +64.4% +553.5% +562.5% up next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.2% of circ. −9.9% −34.5% −25.5% down next day
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.2% of circ. −1.0% +3.1% +16.5% sideways next day
Compound (COMP) 0.2% of circ. −1.9% +26.3% +23.6% down next day
Compound (COMP) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.2% of circ. — — — not measured yet
2019
Synthetix Network (SNX) 0.3% of circ. — — — not measured yet

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of · methodology

This page is a count of 72 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

  • Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
  • Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose side flips (its share crosses 50%) is flagged as flipped.
  • Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.

Questions

Questions about this pattern

as of · answered from this count

What does the 44% figure on this page mean?
  • It is a base rate: 32 of the 72 measured past cases of tVL surges of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 22, 2026.
  • It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 35% to 54% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
How is a case measured?
  • Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
  • The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
Why does this pattern exist and others not?
  • A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
  • This one has 72.
  • Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
What does the recent-cases check say here?
  • The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 44% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 45% of the time.
  • A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
Where do the 171 cases come from?
  • From this site's own event history: every TVL surge with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
  • The full list, with dates, is on this page.